Independiente Medellín vs Deportes Tolima – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

27/01/2026 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín).

Primera A - Apertura - Round 3
Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.08	1.07
Ball possession
68%	32%
Total shots
24	5
Shots on target
6	3
Big chances
1	1
Corner kicks
6	2
Passes
85% (405/476)	66% (147/223)
Yellow cards
2	0
Red cards
0	2
Expected goals (xG)
1.08	1.07
xG on target (xGOT)
0.57	1.58
Total shots
24	5
Shots on target
6	3
Shots off target
13	2
Blocked shots
5	0
Shots inside the box
10	3
Shots outside the box
14	2
Hit the woodwork
0	1
Headed goals
2	0
Big chances
1	1
Corner kicks
6	2
Touches in opposition box
37	6
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	0
Free kicks
11	11
Passes
85% (405/476)	66% (147/223)
Long passes
37% (16/43)	31% (19/61)
Passes in final third
82% (213/260)	36% (21/58)
Crosses
35% (7/20)	0% (0/3)
Expected assists (xA)
2.56	0.13
Throw ins
27	14
Fouls
11	11
Tackles
92% (11/12)	60% (6/10)
Duels won
32	32
Clearances
10	37
Interceptions
7	3
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper saves
1	4
xGOT faced
1.58	0.57
Goals prevented
-0.42	-1.43

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 2)
21', 1 - 0, Ortiz J. ⚽, Chaverra L. (A),
26', 1 - 1, Parra Osorio A. ⚽,
31', 1 - 2, Parra Osorio A. ⚽,
35', Hurtado Torres Y. D. 🟥,
39', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Arrieta C. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Chaverra L. ↓, Mancilla G. ↑,
46', Florez K. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
46', Nieto J. ↓, Ricardo E. ↑,
58', Ricardo E. 🟥,
60', Loboa H. ↓, Larrosa E. ↑,
61', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Guzman S. ↑,
62', Mantilla K. 🟨,
67', Moreno D. 🟨,
68', Berrio L. ↓, Catano D. ↑,
69', 2 - 2, Larrosa E. ⚽, Chaverra F. (A),
78', Mantilla K. ↓, Davila A. ↑,
78', Catano D. ↓, Serna A. ↑,
87', Lopez E. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/9be49h5x

Chances of winning

Independiente Medellín
42%

Draw
32.1%

Deportes Tolima
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

28.1%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

27.4%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.93)	2.91 ↓ (3.3)	3.59 ↓ (3.88)	7.5% (8.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima?

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 3.
Ind Medellín is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Deportes Tolima's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Ind Medellín might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:22. (average 1.3:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 0.9:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Deportes Tolima?

Independiente Medellín has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Deportes Tolima won against Independiente Medellín?

Deportes Tolima has won 2 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima were as follows:

27.09.2025 Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín 2:3

15.06.2025 Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima 2:1

04.06.2025 Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín 1:3

15.05.2025 Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima 0:1

22.09.2024 Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima 0:1

Latest results of Independiente Medellín

24.01.2026 Deportivo Cali - Independiente Medellín 3:1 ✺

18.01.2026 Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Medellín 1:0 ✺

17.12.2025 Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional 0:1 ✺

13.12.2025 Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín 0:0 ✺

08.12.2025 Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Deportes Tolima

23.01.2026 Deportes Tolima - Alianza Valledupar 2:0 ✺

18.01.2026 Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima 0:2 ✺

16.12.2025 Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla 0:1 ✺

12.12.2025 Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima 3:0 ✺

08.12.2025 Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF 1:0 ✺

Colombian Primera A Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Inter Bogotu00e1	8	5	2	1	14:12	2	17
2	Atl. Nacional	6	5	0	1	15:4	11	15
3	Dep. Pasto	8	4	3	1	9:8	1	15
4	America De Cali	7	4	1	2	11:5	6	13
5	Once Caldas	8	3	4	1	13:10	3	13
6	Deportes Tolima	8	3	3	2	10:7	3	12
7	Junior	7	4	0	3	12:10	2	12
8	Bucaramanga	7	2	5	0	10:4	6	11
9	Dep. Cali	8	3	2	3	10:7	3	11
10	Aguilas	7	3	2	2	9:8	1	11
11	Llaneros	8	2	4	2	9:8	1	10
12	Santa Fe	9	2	4	3	10:12	-2	10
13	Fortaleza	8	2	4	2	9:12	-3	10
14	Jaguares de Cordoba	7	3	1	3	8:13	-5	10
15	Millonarios	8	2	2	4	8:10	-2	8
16	Ind. Medellin	8	1	4	3	10:12	-2	7
17	Cucuta	8	1	3	4	12:16	-4	6
18	Pereira	7	0	4	3	7:11	-4	4
19	Chico	8	1	1	6	7:13	-6	4
20	Alianza	7	0	3	4	3:14	-11	3

Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )