Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellín – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Colombian Primera A Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín
Result
2:3
27/09/2025 at 19:20 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Primera A - Clausura - Round 13
  • Referee: Rivera H. (Col)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
colombiaColombiaWin+ Futbol, Win play
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
south-americaSouth-americaRCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
usaUsaFanatiz, Fubo Latino 2

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.032.16
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
1215
Shots on target
48
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
34
Passes
81% (331/408)77% (282/368)
Yellow Cards
41
Expected Goals (xG)
1.032.16
xG on target (xGOT)
1.032.69
Total shots
1215
Shots on target
48
Shots off target
46
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
85
Shots outside the Box
410
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
34
Touches in opposition box
1418
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
97
Passes
81% (331/408)77% (282/368)
Long passes
47% (24/51)50% (30/60)
Passes in final third
61% (65/106)60% (68/113)
Crosses
33% (4/12)18% (2/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.580.61
Throw-ins
2122
Fouls
79
Tackles
88% (14/16)57% (8/14)
Duels won
4942
Clearances
2118
Interceptions
512
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
32
xGOT faced
2.691.03
Goals prevented
-0.31-0.97

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 9', 1 - 0, Gonzalez M. , Torres Patino J. P. (A),
  • 32', Lencina G. 🟨,
  • 41', 2 - 0, Gonzalez M. , Hurtado Torres Y. D. (A),
  • 45+7', Fiermarin C. 🟨,
  • 45+9', 2 - 1, Berrio L. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 46', Mena Perea E. , Chaverra L. ,
  • 46', Ortiz J. , Barrera J. ,
  • 46', Torres M. , Mera J. ,
  • 49', 2 - 2, Garcia M. , Berrio L. (A),
  • 59', Mera J. 🟨,
  • 63', 2 - 3, Berrio L. , Barrera J. (A),
  • 67', Nieto J. , Trujillo C. ,
  • 67', Lencina G. , Larregui B. ,
  • 73', Torres Patino J. P. , Parra Osorio A. ,
  • 78', Valencia J. , Chaverra F. ,
  • 78', Berrio L. , Perlaza B. ,
  • 82', Serna A. 🟨,
  • 82', Larregui B. 🟨,
  • 87', Rovira B. , Guzman S. ,
  • 90+3', Leon B. , Segura N. ,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/4em4c2uz

Chances of winning


Deportes Tolima
50.5%
Draw
27.5%
Independiente Medellín
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38.4% 28.6% 33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40% 29.8% 31.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes Tolima's performance.
  • Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Medellín might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-10.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes Tolima that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+9.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Medellín could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.91
    (2.44)
    3.56
    (3.28)
    4.63
    (2.83)
    2.2%
    (6.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín?
  • Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 2.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • Deportes Tolima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Ind Medellín has had a series of home games.
    • Deportes Tolima could have a small edge in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Tolima won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 1:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín were as follows:
    15.06.2025 Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima 2:1
    04.06.2025 Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín 1:3
    15.05.2025 Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima 0:1
    22.09.2024 Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima 0:1
    09.03.2024 Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín 2:2
    Latest results of Deportes Tolima
    Colombian Primera A Table
    Clausura
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Junior1694330:191131
    2Bucaramanga1593326:121430
    3Ind. Medellin1593333:211230
    4Atl. Nacional1677227:19828
    5Fortaleza1677221:16528
    6Llaneros1674516:14225
    7Deportes Tolima1572618:14423
    8Santa Fe1556416:14221
    9Aguilas1656521:22-121
    10America De Cali1655616:15120
    11Alianza1655619:21-220
    12Dep. Cali1655620:23-320
    13Once Caldas1654718:23-519
    14Pereira1646617:19-218
    15U. Magdalena1653820:26-618
    16Millonarios1552818:23-517
    17Envigado1637614:18-416
    18Dep. Pasto1627719:25-613
    19Chico1627711:23-1213
    20La Equidad152589:22-1311

          Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )