Result
2:1
15/06/2025 at 19:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Quadrangular - Round 5
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.29 | 1.01 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (194/257) | 83% (360/432) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.29 | 1.01 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 0.82 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 5 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (194/257) | 83% (360/432) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (20/51) | 59% (43/73) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (40/67) | 70% (100/142) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (2/12) | 8% (2/26) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.25 | 0.68 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (6/9) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.10 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.18 | -0.90 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 18', 1 - 0, Berrio L. ⚽, Leon B. (A),
- 25', Hernandez J. 🟨,
- 30', Leon B. 🟨,
- 30', Angulo A. 🟨,
- 30', Aguerre W. 🟨,
- 45', Parra Osorio A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 60', Berrio L. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
- 62', Fydriszewski F. 🟨,
- 68', Leon B. ↓, Sandoval L. ↑,
- 68', Martinez Yepez H. E. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
- 68', Ramirez G. ↓, Lencina G. ↑,
- 70', 1 - 1, Lencina G. ⚽,
- 76', Gonzalez J. ↓, Perez K. ↑,
- 76', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Marcus Vinicius ↑,
- 77', Chaverra F. ↓, Arizala J. ↑,
- 77', Lencina G. 🟨,
- 83', Hernandez J. ↓, Arrieta C. ↑,
- 83', Nieto J. ↓, Trujillo C. ↑,
- 90+3', Torres M. 🟨,
- 90+3', 2 - 1, Arizala J. ⚽, Moreno D. (A),
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/dz5ev96a
Chances of winning
Independiente Medellín
55.6% | Draw
26.6% | Deportes Tolima
17.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-0.8%)
Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.69
(1.69) |
3.45 ↓
(3.54) |
5.16 ↓
(5.4) |
7.6%
(5.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Independiente Medellín will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Final) and 2)
- Ind Medellín is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs Final)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 2.
- Ind Medellín is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- In recent matches, Deportes Tolima has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Deportes Tolima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Ind Medellín is considered a favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:19. (average 1.2:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.8:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Deportes Tolima?
Independiente Medellín has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Deportes Tolima won against Independiente Medellín?
Deportes Tolima has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima were as follows:
04.06.2025
Deportes Tolima
-
Independiente Medellín
1:3
15.05.2025
Independiente Medellín
-
Deportes Tolima
0:1
22.09.2024
Independiente Medellín
-
Deportes Tolima
0:1
09.03.2024
Deportes Tolima
-
Independiente Medellín
2:2
05.03.2024
Deportes Tolima
-
Independiente Medellín
0:1
Latest results of Independiente Medellín
Latest results of Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Junior | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20:10 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Ind. Medellin | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16:10 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10:6 | 4 | 17 |
| 4 | Atl. Nacional | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 15:8 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Fortaleza | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13:9 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Llaneros | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9:9 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Bucaramanga | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:8 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Santa Fe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Pereira | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Alianza | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Envigado | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | La Equidad | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Dep. Cali | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:15 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Chico | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7:11 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Dep. Pasto | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Once Caldas | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 9 |
| 17 | U. Magdalena | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8:15 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Millonarios | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10:12 | -2 | 7 |
| 19 | Aguilas | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 7 |
| 20 | America De Cali | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | -3 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )
