Middlesbrough vs Derby County – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Championship Middlesbrough - Derby County
Result
1:0
01/03/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • ENGLAND: Championship - Round 35
  • Referee: Ward G. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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usaUsaParamount+
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.970.18
Ball Possession
65%35%
Goal Attempts
185
Shots on Goal
61
Shots off Goal
54
Blocked Shots
70
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
53
Shots inside the Box
81
Shots outside the Box
104
Hit the Woodwork
20
Goalkeeper Saves
15
Free Kicks
139
Offsides
10
Fouls
913
Yellow Cards
11
Throw-ins
3616
Touches in the Opposition Box
2411
Passes
85% (481/565)69% (206/300)
Passes in the final third
77% (141/182)53% (48/90)
Crosses
12% (2/17)29% (4/14)
Tackles
87% (13/15)55% (12/22)
Clearances Total
2325
Interceptions
56

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 19', Barkhuizen T. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 62', Ayling L. , Giles R. ,
  • 65', Barkhuizen T. , Thompson L. ,
  • 72', Forss M. , Iheanacho K. ,
  • 76', Yates J. , Salvesen L. ,
  • 76', Armstrong H. , Osborn B. ,
  • 76', Harness M. , Goudmijn K. ,
  • 80', 1 - 0, Azaz F. ,
  • 81', Azaz F. 🟨,
  • 84', Jackson K. , Roofe K. ,
  • 84', Azaz F. , Burgzorg D. ,
  • 84', Conway T. , Iling Junior S. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Middlesbrough
62.3%
Draw
22.6%
Derby County
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.1% 25.8% 21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53% 25.8% 21.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Middlesbrough's performance.
  • Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-9.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Middlesbrough that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Middlesbrough - Derby County Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.54
    (1.78)
    4.22
    (3.67)
    6.35
    (4.48)
    4.6%
    (5.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Middlesbrough - Derby County?
  • Users Predictions: Middlesbrough will win (24 of 26 users predict this - 92.31%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 82.07%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 11 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Middlesbrough won 2.
    • The competitors look crappy now.
    • Derby could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match Middlesbrough is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Middlesbrough: Brynn S. (Injury) Dieng S. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Doak B. (Thigh Injury) McGree R. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Derby: Brown D. (Hamstring Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Ward J. (Injury) Wilson K. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Edmundson G. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Derby: Phillips N. (Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Middlesbrough won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 25:22 (average 1.3:1.1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Middlesbrough won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 17:9 (average 1.9:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Middlesbrough - Derby County were as follows:
    17.08.2024 Derby County - Middlesbrough 1:0
    Latest results of Middlesbrough
    Latest results of Derby County
    English League Championship Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Coventry1174031:82325
    2Middlesbrough1173115:7824
    3Millwall1162313:13020
    4Bristol City1154219:11819
    5Charlton1153313:9418
    6Stoke1153312:8418
    7Hull1153319:19018
    8QPR1153315:16-118
    9Leicester1145215:11417
    10West Brom1152412:13-117
    11Preston1144312:10216
    12Watford1143413:13015
    13Birmingham1143411:14-315
    14Ipswich1034316:13313
    15Wrexham1134415:16-113
    16Swansea1134410:11-113
    17Portsmouth1134410:12-213
    18Southampton1126312:15-312
    19Derby1125412:16-411
    20Oxford Utd1123611:14-39
    21Sheffield Utd113087:17-109
    22Norwich1122711:16-58
    23Blackburn102178:16-87
    24Sheffield Wed111379:23-146

          Promotion ~ Premier League
          Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ League One