Result
4:2
27/02/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier Division - Round 4
- Referee: Norton P. (Irl)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ireland | LOI TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.61 | 2.20 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (303/411) | 50% (109/219) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.61 | 2.20 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 5.85 | 2.28 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 17 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 38 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (303/411) | 50% (109/219) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (38/72) | 26% (19/73) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (129/180) | 43% (43/99) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (8/35) | 33% (3/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.60 | 0.35 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 28 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 92% (12/13) | 71% (15/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 48 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.28 | 5.85 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.28 | 1.85 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 19', 0 - 1, Voilas J. ⚽,
- 36', Voilas J. 🟨,
- 40', Winchester C. ↓, O'Reilly A. ↑,
- 43', Fleming B. 🟨,
- 45+1', Noonan C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (4 - 1)
- 51', 0 - 2, Lonergan T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 55', Clarke J. ↓, Akinyemi D. ↑,
- 58', 1 - 2, Duffy M. ⚽, Whyte G. (A),
- 66', Voilas J. ↓, McMenamy D. ↑,
- 72', McClean J. ↓, Bannon A. ↑,
- 72', Cotter B. ↓, Olayinka J. ↑,
- 72', Whyte G. ↓, Rylah H. ↑,
- 75', 2 - 2, Duffy M. ⚽, Rylah H. (A),
- 76', Coyle T. ↓, Carty C. ↑,
- 79', Lonergan T. ↓, Faria J. ↑,
- 90+1', 3 - 2, Akinyemi D. ⚽, Duffy M. (A),
- 90+4', 4 - 2, Duffy M. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Derry City
63.6% | Draw
21.9% | Waterford
14.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)Waterford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (+5.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derry City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Waterford than the current prediction. (-2%)
Derry City - Waterford Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.47 ↑
(1.42) |
4.29 ↓
(4.39) |
6.45 ↓
(7.13) |
7.1%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Derry City - Waterford?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Derry will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Derry (1.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Derry (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 4 and 7).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derry won 3.
- Derry is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Waterford's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Recently, Waterford has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Derry is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Derry: Boyce L.
(Inactive)
Maher B.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Waterford: Armstrong F.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Derry: Dummigan C.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Waterford: Doherty A.
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derry won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 41:26. (average 2.1:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Derry won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:12. (average 2.6:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Derry City won against Waterford?
Derry City has won 6 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Waterford won against Derry City?
Waterford has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Derry City - Waterford were as follows:
17.10.2025
Waterford
-
Derry City
1:2
04.07.2025
Derry City
-
Waterford
7:2
25.04.2025
Waterford
-
Derry City
2:1
28.02.2025
Derry City
-
Waterford
1:2
23.08.2024
Waterford
-
Derry City
0:1
Latest results of Derry City
Latest results of Waterford
Irish Premier Division Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bohemians | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10:2 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | St. Patricks | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12:5 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:6 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:10 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10:9 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Derry City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:9 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Galway | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Drogheda | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Sligo Rovers | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:11 | -8 | 4 |
| 10 | Waterford | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6:17 | -11 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Division 1
