Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Scottish Football Championship Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United
Result
0:1
23/09/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Championship - Round 5
  • Referee: McFarlane D. (Sco)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
asiaAsiaPars TV Arabic
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAyr United Media

Match Stats

Ball Possession
48%52%
Total shots
76
Shots on target
32
Corner Kicks
63
Yellow Cards
44
Red Cards
11
Total shots
76
Shots on target
32
Shots off target
44
Corner Kicks
63

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 9', 0 - 1, McKenzie M. ,
  • 31', Chilokoa-Mullen J. 🟨,
  • 41', Dick L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Otoo E. , Fraser R. ,
  • 47', Chilokoa-Mullen J. 🟨,
  • 52', McKenzie M. 🟨,
  • 57', Gilmour C. 🟨,
  • 58', Watret D. 🟨,
  • 63', MacLeod R. , Ritchie-Hosler K. ,
  • 63', Gilmour C. , Amade A. ,
  • 65', McKenzie M. , Oakley G. ,
  • 65', Murphy J. , Rus M. ,
  • 75', McMann S. , Dowds A. ,
  • 83', Walker E. , Thomas D. ,
  • 84', Tod J. , Kane Ch. ,
  • 84', Caceres J. , Todd M. ,
  • 86', Amade A. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Watret D. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Dunfermline Athletic
34.6%
Draw
30.2%
Ayr United
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.5% 28.1% 28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1% 27.7% 27.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Dunfermline Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dunfermline Athletic's form might have worsened.
  • Ayr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ayr United's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dunfermline Athletic than the current prediction. (+9.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dunfermline Athletic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (-7.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ayr United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.92
    (2.12)
    3.25
    (3.28)
    2.73
    (3.25)
    1.7%
    (8.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Dunfermline will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1%88.1%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 and 8).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dunfermline won 0.
    • Dunfermline has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Ayr's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Dunfermline may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dunfermline won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.1:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Dunfermline won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.1:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United were as follows:
    29.03.2025 Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic 3:0
    14.01.2025 Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United 0:2
    23.11.2024 Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic 1:0
    31.08.2024 Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United 1:1
    03.05.2024 Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic 3:3
    Latest results of Dunfermline Athletic
    Latest results of Ayr United
    Scottish Football Championship Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1St Johnstone761016:41219
    2Raith73227:6111
    3Arbroath73228:12-411
    4Partick Thistle531110:10010
    5Dunfermline722310:738
    6Ayr61416:607
    7Queen's Park61416:7-17
    8Morton70615:6-16
    9Ross County70348:13-53
    10Airdrieonians70345:10-53

          Promotion ~ Premiership
          Promotion ~ Premiership (Relegation: Semi~finals)
          Promotion ~ Premiership (Relegation: Quarter~finals)
          Championship (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ League One