Result
2:3
01/06/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 15
- Referee: Diaz A. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.59 | 0.73 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 48% | 52% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 62% (158/255) | 67% (195/292) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.59 | 0.73 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 0.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 62% (158/255) | 67% (195/292) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (29/76) | 29% (16/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 47% (49/105) | 71% (44/62) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/24) | 20% (2/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 0.52 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 74% (14/19) | 80% (12/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -2.03 | -0.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 11', 0 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽, Borja F. (A),
- 20', 1 - 1, Haquin L. (Pen),
- 25', Davila E. 🟨,
- 31', Carabali F. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
- 45+3', Cela A. 🟨,
- 45+5', Quintero D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Borja F. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 46', 1 - 2, Cevallos J. ⚽, Pazmino D. (A),
- 49', 1 - 3, Reasco D. ⚽, Pazmino D. (A),
- 51', Caicedo E. 🟨,
- 54', Parrales J. ↓, Miranda B. ↑,
- 55', Tapiero S. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
- 67', Orejuela C. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
- 67', Bryan Angulo ↓, Alonso M. ↑,
- 76', Pazmino D. 🟨,
- 77', Pazmino D. ↓, Rivera B. ↑,
- 78', Cevallos J. 🟨,
- 79', Mina G. ↓, Gracia A. ↑,
- 80', 2 - 3, Miranda B. ⚽,
- 82', Bedoya A. 🟨,
- 86', Cevallos J. ↓, Mejia J. ↑,
- 86', Cela A. ↓, Montano M. ↑,
- 89', Davila E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Mushuc Runa
48.9% | Draw
26.9% | El Nacional
24.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
Mushuc Runa - El Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↑
(1.81) |
3.44 ↓
(3.59) |
3.81 ↓
(4.1) |
7.8%
(7.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 0.
- Mushuc Runa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- El Nacional is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Mushuc Runa has had a series of away games.
- Mushuc Runa might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 14:31. (average 0.7:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.9:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against El Nacional?
Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Mushuc Runa?
El Nacional has won 6 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mushuc Runa - El Nacional were as follows:
24.11.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
El Nacional
2:2
31.10.2024
El Nacional
-
Mushuc Runa
2:0
23.10.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
El Nacional
1:2
26.05.2024
El Nacional
-
Mushuc Runa
1:0
08.10.2023
El Nacional
-
Mushuc Runa
2:0
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Latest results of El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 27 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 50:20 | 30 | 59 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 40:32 | 8 | 47 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 42:26 | 16 | 45 |
| 4 | Dep. Cuenca | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 32:26 | 6 | 43 |
| 5 | U. Catolica | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 51:35 | 16 | 42 |
| 6 | Orense | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 31:31 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Libertad | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 40:34 | 6 | 41 |
| 8 | Aucas | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 36:39 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | Emelec | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 26:30 | -4 | 38 |
| 10 | EL Nacional | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Macara | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 26:28 | -2 | 31 |
| 12 | Delfin | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 25:40 | -15 | 28 |
| 13 | Manta | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 31:45 | -14 | 25 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 24:41 | -17 | 25 |
| 15 | Vinotinto | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 29:38 | -9 | 24 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 30:45 | -15 | 23 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
