Result
0:5
27/09/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 30
- Referee: Parra P. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.17 | 0.91 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (228/290) | 87% (372/430) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.17 | 0.91 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.08 | 1.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 2 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (228/290) | 87% (372/430) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 32% (17/53) | 63% (30/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 44% (25/57) | 67% (80/119) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (1/9) | 11% (1/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.13 | 1.04 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 8 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (6/9) | 75% (9/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 28 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.97 | 0.08 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -3.03 | 0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 29', Cela A. 🟥,
- 30', 0 - 1, Gracia A. ⚽,
- 39', Benalcazar L. ↓, Mora F. ↑,
- 43', Penilla C. 🟨,
- 45', Carabali F. 🟥,
- 45+5', 0 - 2, Verges J. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 3)
- 53', Gracia A. 🟨,
- 55', 0 - 3, Penilla C. ⚽, Davila E. (A),
- 57', 0 - 4, Penilla C. ⚽, Verges J. (A),
- 61', Verges J. ↓, Burbano R. ↑,
- 62', Penilla C. ↓, Dos Santos J. ↑,
- 62', Gracia A. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,
- 68', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Mena A. ↑,
- 68', Reasco D. ↓, Mazamba S. ↑,
- 76', Mina G. ↓, Cusme J. ↑,
- 81', Quintero D. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
- 85', Chala J. ↓, Puente J. ↑,
- 85', Borja J. ↓, De Jesus B. ↑,
- 88', 0 - 5, Burbano R. ⚽, Orejuela C. (A),
Chances of winning
El Nacional
40.8% | Draw
28.3% | Mushuc Runa
30.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+3%)
El Nacional - Mushuc Runa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.31 ↓
(2.35) |
3.28 ↓
(3.4) |
3.04 ↑
(2.7) |
6.7%
(9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for El Nacional - Mushuc Runa?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- El Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
- Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 4.
- El Nacional is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Mushuc Runa's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:19. (average 1.5:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Mushuc Runa?
El Nacional has won 7 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against El Nacional?
Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between El Nacional - Mushuc Runa were as follows:
01.06.2025
Mushuc Runa
-
El Nacional
2:3
24.11.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
El Nacional
2:2
31.10.2024
El Nacional
-
Mushuc Runa
2:0
23.10.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
El Nacional
1:2
26.05.2024
El Nacional
-
Mushuc Runa
1:0
Latest results of El Nacional
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
Placement Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 7 | Dep. Cuenca | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 36:32 | 4 | 46 |
| 8 | Emelec | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 33:35 | -2 | 45 |
| 9 | Macara | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 35:32 | 3 | 41 |
| 10 | Aucas | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 40:44 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 | EL Nacional | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 34:48 | -14 | 35 |
| 12 | Delfin | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 28:44 | -16 | 32 |
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Qualification: )
