El Nacional vs Vinotinto – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Ecuadorian Liga Pro El Nacional - Vinotinto
Result
2:1
12/05/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Pro - Round 12
  • Referee: Aragon A. (Ecu)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
ecuadorEcuadorCanal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
peruPeruZapping Sports
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.741.38
Ball Possession
48%52%
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
35
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
35
Passes
78% (257/331)80% (271/337)
Yellow Cards
11
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
0.741.38
xG on target (xGOT)
0.500.78
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
78
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
910
Shots outside the Box
45
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
35
Touches in opposition box
2127
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
915
Passes
78% (257/331)80% (271/337)
Long passes
41% (24/58)57% (39/68)
Passes in final third
58% (55/95)62% (66/106)
Crosses
17% (2/12)35% (11/31)
Expected assists (xA)
0.601.46
Throw-ins
1224
Fouls
159
Tackles
71% (10/14)43% (6/14)
Duels won
4143
Clearances
2713
Interceptions
85
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
41
xGOT faced
0.780.50
Goals prevented
-0.22-0.50

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 16', Luna D. , Molina N. ,
  • 23', Cela A. 🟨,
  • 24', 1 - 0, Hernandez E. (Own goal),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Caicedo J. , Mera F. ,
  • 47', 1 - 1, Mera F. , Monti R. (A),
  • 54', Mejia J. , Guisamano J. ,
  • 55', Caicedo E. 🟥,
  • 62', 2 - 1, Reasco D. , Mejia E. (A),
  • 75', Reasco D. , Ledesma A. ,
  • 75', Cela A. , Bedoya A. ,
  • 80', Pazmino D. , Cevallos J. ,
  • 80', Mejia E. , Borja F. ,
  • 87', Nardelli G. , Ona C. ,
  • 90+2', Rodriguez E. , Coba K. ,
  • 90+5', Molina N. 🟨,

Chances of winning


El Nacional
36.4%
Draw
30%
Vinotinto
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
37.2% 29.2% 33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3% 29.1% 33.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
  • Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
  • El Nacional - Vinotinto Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.53
    (2.51)
    3.12
    (3.2)
    2.77
    (2.77)
    7.7%
    (7.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for El Nacional - Vinotinto?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Vinotinto will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for El Nacional: 35.9%97.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 1 - 50%). Vinotinto (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • Recently, there has been no match between the teams.
    Latest results of El Nacional
    Latest results of Vinotinto
    Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ind. del Valle25158245:202553
    2Barcelona SC26145738:29947
    3LDU Quito25128541:241744
    4Dep. Cuenca26126831:25642
    5Libertad26118740:34641
    6Aucas261151035:37-238
    7Orense25115927:29-238
    8U. Catolica2599746:331336
    9Emelec2598824:28-435
    10Macara26791025:27-230
    11EL Nacional25771130:35-528
    12Delfin25610924:37-1328
    13Tecnico U25671224:35-1125
    14Manta265101131:43-1225
    15Vinotinto26661429:37-824
    16Mushuc Runa ✔ 26551628:45-1720

          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
          Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )