Result
0:1
29/08/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 27
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.77 | 0.43 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (159/238) | 86% (435/503) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.77 | 0.43 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.10 | 0.68 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 67% (159/238) | 86% (435/503) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 32% (21/65) | 50% (29/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (43/79) | 71% (88/124) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (2/12) | 10% (2/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 0.38 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (6/9) | 80% (12/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.68 | 0.10 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.32 | 0.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 30', Borja J. 🟨,
- 42', Larotonda C. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 57', Mejia Moreira J. D. 🟨,
- 62', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, De Jesus B. ↑,
- 67', Gomez L. 🟨,
- 72', Borja J. ↓, Maya J. ↑,
- 72', Guisamano J. ↓, Mora F. ↑,
- 74', Julio M. ↓, Coba K. ↑,
- 83', Ushina K. ↓, Melo A. ↑,
- 83', Monti R. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
- 83', Chala J. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
- 87', 0 - 1, Branda V. ⚽, Maya J. (A),
Chances of winning
Vinotinto
33% | Draw
29.4% | El Nacional
37.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vinotinto's form might have worsened.El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting El Nacional's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+16%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-12.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for El Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Vinotinto - El Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.78 ↑
(1.93) |
3.12 ↓
(3.5) |
2.48 ↓
(3.61) |
8.4%
(8.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Vinotinto - El Nacional?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- Vinotinto is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- El Nacional's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vinotinto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Vinotinto won against El Nacional?
Vinotinto has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Vinotinto?
El Nacional has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vinotinto - El Nacional were as follows:
12.05.2025
El Nacional
-
Vinotinto
2:1
Latest results of Vinotinto
Latest results of El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle ✔ | 28 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 53:21 | 32 | 62 |
| 2 | LDU Quito | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 43:26 | 17 | 48 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 40:32 | 8 | 47 |
| 4 | Orense | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 34:32 | 2 | 45 |
| 5 | U. Catolica | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 52:36 | 16 | 43 |
| 6 | Dep. Cuenca | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 32:26 | 6 | 43 |
| 7 | Libertad | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 40:35 | 5 | 42 |
| 8 | Aucas | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 36:39 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | Emelec | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 26:30 | -4 | 38 |
| 10 | EL Nacional | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Macara | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 26:28 | -2 | 31 |
| 12 | Delfin | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 30 |
| 13 | Manta | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 31:45 | -14 | 25 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 24:41 | -17 | 25 |
| 15 | Vinotinto | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 30:41 | -11 | 24 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 31:48 | -17 | 23 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
