Result
2:1
12/05/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 12
- Referee: Aragon A. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 1.38 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 48% | 52% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (257/331) | 80% (271/337) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 1.38 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 0.78 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (257/331) | 80% (271/337) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (24/58) | 57% (39/68) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (55/95) | 62% (66/106) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (2/12) | 35% (11/31) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.46 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 12 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (10/14) | 43% (6/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.78 | 0.50 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.22 | -0.50 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 16', Luna D. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
- 23', Cela A. 🟨,
- 24', 1 - 0, Hernandez E. (Own goal),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Caicedo J. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
- 47', 1 - 1, Mera F. ⚽, Monti R. (A),
- 54', Mejia J. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 55', Caicedo E. 🟥,
- 62', 2 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽, Mejia E. (A),
- 75', Reasco D. ↓, Ledesma A. ↑,
- 75', Cela A. ↓, Bedoya A. ↑,
- 80', Pazmino D. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
- 80', Mejia E. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
- 87', Nardelli G. ↓, Ona C. ↑,
- 90+2', Rodriguez E. ↓, Coba K. ↑,
- 90+5', Molina N. 🟨,
Chances of winning
El Nacional
36.4% | Draw
30% | Vinotinto
33.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
El Nacional - Vinotinto Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.53 ↑
(2.51) |
3.12 ↓
(3.2) |
2.77 ↓
(2.77) |
7.7%
(7.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for El Nacional - Vinotinto?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Vinotinto will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for El Nacional: 35.9% – 97.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 1 - 50%). Vinotinto (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- Recently, there has been no match between the teams.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Vinotinto?
El Nacional has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vinotinto won against El Nacional?
Vinotinto has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between El Nacional - Vinotinto were as follows:
Latest results of El Nacional
Latest results of Vinotinto
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 23 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 43:19 | 24 | 49 |
| 2 | LDU Quito | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 40:22 | 18 | 43 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 35:26 | 9 | 41 |
| 4 | Orense | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 25:26 | -1 | 37 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 27:24 | 3 | 35 |
| 6 | Aucas | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 32:33 | -1 | 35 |
| 7 | U. Catolica | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 44:31 | 13 | 34 |
| 8 | Libertad | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33:28 | 5 | 34 |
| 9 | Emelec | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 20:26 | -6 | 28 |
| 10 | Delfin | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21:31 | -10 | 26 |
| 11 | EL Nacional | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 26:33 | -7 | 25 |
| 12 | Vinotinto | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 26:30 | -4 | 23 |
| 13 | Macara | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 21:26 | -5 | 23 |
| 14 | Manta | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 30:41 | -11 | 23 |
| 15 | Tecnico U | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23:34 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 25:41 | -16 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
