Result
5:0
15/12/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 9
- Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.77 | 1.09 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (273/351) | 82% (343/418) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.77 | 1.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.02 | 0.47 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 14 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (273/351) | 82% (343/418) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (22/39) | 50% (24/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (66/100) | 72% (94/130) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (3/9) | 26% (5/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 0.84 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 61% (11/18) | 56% (5/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 32 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.47 | 3.02 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.47 | -1.98 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 19', Cabezas Briones R. A. 🟨,
- 42', 1 - 0, Cevallos J. ⚽, Fragozo L. (A),
- 2nd Half (4 - 0)
- 54', Flor F. ↓, Mazamba S. ↑,
- 60', 2 - 0, Caicedo R. ⚽, Castillo Saa J. L. (A),
- 67', Borja F. ↓, Montano M. ↑,
- 68', Fragozo L. ↓, Corozo W. ↑,
- 71', 3 - 0, Solis M. ⚽, Corozo W. (A),
- 74', 4 - 0, Solis M. ⚽, Cevallos J. (A),
- 79', 5 - 0, Corozo W. ⚽, Caicedo R. (A),
- 80', Mena A. ↓, Benalcazar L. ↑,
- 81', Puente J. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 83', Quintero S. ↓, Tobar B. ↑,
- 87', Cevallos J. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Emelec
46.9% | Draw
23.7% | El Nacional
29.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Emelec's form might have worsened.El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting El Nacional's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+12.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Emelec, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-16.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for El Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Emelec - El Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.98 ↑
(1.36) |
3.85 ↓
(4.53) |
3.16 ↓
(8.03) |
8.2%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Emelec - El Nacional?
Users Predictions:
37 users predict this event. Emelec will win (votes: 11 - 29.7%). El Nacional will win (votes: 25 - 67.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 2.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for El Nacional: 52.5% – 82.7%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- AH +0.5 - El Nacional (3.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 2nd Half - El Nacional (3.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Emelec (1.51) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.25 - Emelec (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): El Nacional will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 24 high ROI users predict this event. Emelec (votes: 8 - 33.3%). El Nacional (votes: 16 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Emelec may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- El Nacional is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:20. (average 1.4:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:6. (average 1.8:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Emelec won against El Nacional?
Emelec has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Emelec?
El Nacional has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Emelec - El Nacional were as follows:
09.11.2025
El Nacional
-
Emelec
2:1
21.09.2025
Emelec
-
El Nacional
4:0
25.05.2025
El Nacional
-
Emelec
2:0
18.08.2024
Emelec
-
El Nacional
0:1
17.03.2024
El Nacional
-
Emelec
0:1
Latest results of El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | LDU Quito | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Delfin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Libertad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Aucas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Macara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | U. Catolica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Emelec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Orense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Dep. Cuenca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Manta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Guayaquil City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
