Result
4:0
21/09/2025 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 29
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.64 | 0.53 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (275/342) | 84% (354/421) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.64 | 0.53 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.31 | 0.26 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (275/342) | 84% (354/421) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (27/50) | 58% (26/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (79/113) | 64% (68/106) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (6/17) | 29% (5/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 0.43 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (7/16) | 57% (4/7) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 37 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.26 | 3.31 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.26 | -0.69 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 3', 1 - 0, Cevallos J. ⚽, Solis M. (A),
- 21', Quintero S. 🟨,
- 25', Rivera B. ↓, Carabali F. ↑,
- 41', 2 - 0, Ayovi J. ⚽, Solis M. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Quintero S. ↓, Barco A. ↑,
- 46', Chala J. ↓, Borja F. ↑,
- 65', Benalcazar L. ↓, Mora F. ↑,
- 71', Solis M. ↓, Cuero Palacio J. R. ↑,
- 71', Ayovi J. ↓, Corozo W. ↑,
- 80', 3 - 0, Cevallos J. ⚽, Gonzalez A. (A),
- 82', Cabezas D. 🟨,
- 83', 4 - 0, Cuero Palacio J. R. (Pen),
- 88', Velez C. ↓, Mena A. ↑,
- 88', Cela A. ↓, Puente J. ↑,
- 88', Cevallos J. ↓, Borja R. ↑,
- 88', Gonzalez A. ↓, Quinonez J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Emelec
56.3% | Draw
25.3% | El Nacional
18.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Emelec's performance.El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-7.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Emelec that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+5%)
Emelec - El Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.54 ↓
(1.89) |
3.26 ↓
(3.37) |
4.42 ↑
(4.02) |
18.3%
(7.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- El Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Emelec is considered a favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:23. (average 1.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.6:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Emelec won against El Nacional?
Emelec has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Emelec?
El Nacional has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Emelec - El Nacional were as follows:
25.05.2025
El Nacional
-
Emelec
2:0
18.08.2024
Emelec
-
El Nacional
0:1
17.03.2024
El Nacional
-
Emelec
0:1
16.09.2023
El Nacional
-
Emelec
1:1
17.04.2023
Emelec
-
El Nacional
1:2
Latest results of El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle ✔ | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 55:23 | 32 | 64 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC ✔ | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 46:33 | 13 | 54 |
| 3 | LDU Quito ✔ | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48:31 | 17 | 51 |
| 4 | U. Catolica | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 58:39 | 19 | 49 |
| 5 | Orense | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 34:32 | 2 | 47 |
| 6 | Libertad | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 42:36 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | Dep. Cuenca | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 35:29 | 6 | 46 |
| 8 | Emelec ✔ | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 42 |
| 9 | Aucas ✔ | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 38:41 | -3 | 41 |
| 10 | Macara ✔ | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 32:30 | 2 | 38 |
| 11 | EL Nacional ✔ | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 32:46 | -14 | 34 |
| 12 | Delfin | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 26:42 | -16 | 31 |
| 13 | Tecnico U | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 26:46 | -20 | 28 |
| 14 | Vinotinto | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 34:43 | -9 | 27 |
| 15 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 38:50 | -12 | 27 |
| 16 | Manta ✔ | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 34:53 | -19 | 26 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Barcelona SC is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
LDU Quito is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Emelec is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Aucas is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Macara is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
EL Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
Manta is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
