Result
2:1
20/12/2025 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 17
- Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 1.18 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 48% | 52% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (358/451) | 82% (398/487) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 1.18 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (358/451) | 82% (398/487) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (42/89) | 40% (23/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (53/96) | 74% (98/133) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 41% (7/17) | 18% (2/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 1.22 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 50% (4/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.42 | 1.30 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.42 | -0.70 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 20', 1 - 0, Naujoks N. ⚽, Sanches Fernandes D. (A),
- 35', Gooijer T. ↓, Faberski J. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', de Rooij K. ↓, Mbayo D. ↑,
- 48', 1 - 1, Thomas R. ⚽, Floranus S. (A),
- 63', Thomas R. 🟨,
- 64', Bergraaf J. ↓, Wlodarczyk S. ↑,
- 70', Oosting T. ↓, Fichtinger N. ↑,
- 72', Hartjes L. ↓, Schouten L. ↑,
- 76', Zagre A. 🟨,
- 78', 2 - 1, Yegoian I. ⚽, Wlodarczyk S. (A),
- 82', Graves S. ↓, Reiziger G. ↑,
- 87', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Excelsior
45.7% | Draw
25.7% | Zwolle
28.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)Zwolle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zwolle than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
Excelsior - Zwolle Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.09 ↓
(2.26) |
3.7 ↑
(3.57) |
3.28 ↑
(2.88) |
5.5%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Excelsior - Zwolle?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Zwolle will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 52.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.2% – 76.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Excelsior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Excelsior might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Excelsior: Nadje C.
(Inactive)
Tielemans M.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Zwolle: Aertssen O.
(Inactive)
Lagsir S.
(Inactive)
Manu B. M.
(Inactive)
Schendelaar J.
(Injury)
Velanas O.
(Ankle Injury)
van der Haar D.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Zwolle: Voute D.
(Inactive)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 12:36. (average 0.8:2.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:21. (average 1:2.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against Zwolle?
Excelsior has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Zwolle won against Excelsior?
Zwolle has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Excelsior - Zwolle were as follows:
06.04.2024
Zwolle
-
Excelsior
2:1
22.10.2023
Excelsior
-
Zwolle
2:4
Latest results of Excelsior
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 70:29 | 41 | 62 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 55:33 | 22 | 48 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 59:40 | 19 | 43 |
| 4 | Ajax | 24 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 47:31 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 42:38 | 4 | 39 |
| 6 | Twente | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 39:26 | 13 | 38 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 31:40 | -9 | 37 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 36:31 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Groningen | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 40:42 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Sittard | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 36:43 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Zwolle | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 34:50 | -16 | 27 |
| 13 | G.A. Eagles | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 37:39 | -2 | 26 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26:41 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 26:39 | -13 | 24 |
| 16 | NAC Breda | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 22 |
| 17 | Telstar | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 28:41 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 | Heracles | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 31:62 | -31 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
