Result
0:1
27/11/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Conference League - League phase - Round 4
- Referee: Jones R. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD |
 Australia | Stan Sport |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 China | ZhiBo8 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4 |
 Denmark | Disney+ |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | Canal+ Live 11 |
 Germany | RTL+ |
 Greece | ANT 1+, ANT 1 Greece, COSMOTE Sport 5 |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Iceland | SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay |
 Indonesia | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Italy | NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 2 |
 Malta | GO TV, TSN Malta 7 |
 Myanmar | Canal+ Myanmar |
 New-zealand | DAZN New Zealand |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Portugal | DAZN 4, DAZN / App |
 Romania | Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 5 |
 Singapore | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones 11 |
 Sweden | Disney+ |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 21, Blue Sport 21 |
 Thailand | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 7 |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6, TNT Sports Extra |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | On Golf, ON Plus |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 1.76 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (409/468) | 83% (364/438) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 1.76 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 1.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (409/468) | 83% (364/438) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 59% (20/34) | 33% (16/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (63/92) | 70% (79/113) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (6/23) | 23% (3/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 1.55 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (8/16) | 65% (15/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 61 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.06 | 1.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.06 | 0.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 35', 0 - 1, Gacinovic M. ⚽, Pilios S. (A),
- 44', Gudmundsson A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 63', Pereyra R. 🟨,
- 63', Parisi F. ↓, Kouadio E. ↑,
- 64', Ndour C. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
- 64', Pilios S. 🟨,
- 67', Pereyra R. ↓, Mantalos P. ↑,
- 67', Koita A. ↓, Zini ↑,
- 69', Pongracic M. 🟨,
- 79', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
- 80', Fortini N. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
- 80', Ranieri L. ↓, Viti M. ↑,
- 82', Gacinovic M. ↓, Grujic M. ↑,
- 90', Zini ↓, Penrice J. ↑,
- 90+8', Mandragora R. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Fiorentina
49.5% | Draw
27.5% | AEK Athens
23% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentina's form might have worsened.AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+11.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AEK Athens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Fiorentina - AEK Athens Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↑
(1.69) |
3.46 ↓
(3.75) |
4.17 ↓
(4.87) |
5.2%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Fiorentina - AEK Athens?
Users Predictions:
38 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 27 - 71.1%). AEK will win (votes: 7 - 18.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 56.7% – 85.5%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - AEK (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Fiorentina (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Fiorentina will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 10 - 76.9%). AEK (votes: 3 - 23.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Fiorentina is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- AEK is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In this match, Fiorentina is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Fiorentina: Gosens R.
(Thigh Injury)
Kouame C.
(Knee Injury)
Lamptey T.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in AEK: Callens A.
(Heart Problems)
Eliasson N.
(Injury)
Jonsson J.
(Inactive)
Kaloskamis D.
(Inactive)
Kolimatsis C.
(Inactive)
Kutesa D.
(Inactive)
Mitoglou G.
(Inactive)
Odubajo M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in AEK: Pierrot F.
(Injury)
- Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
How many head-to-head matches has Fiorentina won against AEK Athens?
Fiorentina has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has AEK Athens won against Fiorentina?
AEK Athens has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fiorentina - AEK Athens were as follows:
Latest results of Fiorentina
Latest results of AEK Athens
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | KuPS (21) | Lech Poznan (11) | 0 : 1, 0 : 2 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk (6) | Bye | |
| 3 | Noah (19) | AZ Alkmaar (14) | 0 : 4, 1 : 0 |
| 4 | Sparta Prague (4) | Bye | |
| 5 | Zrinjski (23) | Crystal Palace (10) | 0 : 2, 1 : 1 |
| 6 | AEK Larnaca (8) | Bye | |
| 7 | Jagiellonia (17) | Fiorentina (15) | 4 : 2, 0 : 3 |
| 8 | Rakow (2) | Bye | |
| 9 | Shkendija (22) | Samsunspor (12) | 0 : 4, 0 : 1 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano (5) | Bye | |
| 11 | Drita (20) | Celje (13) | 2 : 3, 2 : 3 |
| 12 | AEK Athens (3) | Bye | |
| 13 | Sigma Olomouc (24) | Lausanne (9) | 2 : 1, 1 : 1 |
| 14 | Mainz (7) | Bye | |
| 15 | Omonia (18) | Rijeka (16) | 1 : 3, 0 : 1 |
| 16 | Strasbourg (1) | Bye | |
1/8-finals| 1 | Lech Poznan (11) | Shakhtar Donetsk (6) | |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar (14) | Sparta Prague (4) | |
| 3 | Crystal Palace (10) | AEK Larnaca (8) | |
| 4 | Fiorentina (15) | Rakow (2) | |
| 5 | Samsunspor (12) | Rayo Vallecano (5) | |
| 6 | Celje (13) | AEK Athens (3) | |
| 7 | Sigma Olomouc (24) | Mainz (7) | |
| 8 | Rijeka (16) | Strasbourg (1) | |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
