Result
0:2
15/10/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 28
- Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 World | TV Globo Internacional |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.25 | 0.49 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 27 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (360/429) | 82% (302/370) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.25 | 0.49 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.55 | 0.95 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 27 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 19 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 40 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (360/429) | 82% (302/370) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (26/52) | 40% (19/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (145/189) | 70% (38/54) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (14/40) | 22% (2/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.14 | 0.22 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 100% (12/12) | 63% (5/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 45 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.95 | 2.55 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.05 | 2.55 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 34', Avila G. 🟨,
- 34', Coutinho 🟨,
- 40', Hugo Moura 🟥,
- 45+2', Britez E. 🟨,
- 45+4', 0 - 1, Rayan ⚽, Coutinho (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Rodrigo ↓, Matheus Rossetto ↑,
- 49', Kuscevic B. 🟨,
- 60', Lucero J. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
- 61', Moreira N. ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
- 61', Gomez C. A. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
- 61', Coutinho ↓, David ↑,
- 70', Bareiro A. 🟨,
- 71', Avila G. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
- 72', Guzman Y. ↓, Moises ↑,
- 77', Lucas Piton ↓, Victor Luis ↑,
- 78', Deyverson 🟨,
- 79', Pochettino T. ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
- 82', 0 - 2, David ⚽,
- 88', Tche Tche ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
- 90+5', Robert Renan 🟨,
- 90+5', Bareiro A. 🟥,
- 90+6', Victor Luis 🟥,
Chances of winning
Fortaleza
40.7% | Draw
28.9% | Vasco da Gama
30.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.34 ↑
(2.18) |
3.3 ↑
(3.24) |
3.15 ↓
(3.42) |
4.9%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Vasco will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 21.7% – 78.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Vasco da Gama will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.
- Fortaleza has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Vasco is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Fortaleza might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco
(Thigh Injury)
Joao Ricardo
(Shoulder Injury)
Lucas Crispim
(Muscle Injury)
Lucca Prior
(Pelvis Injury)
Moises
(Thigh Injury)
Pereira M.
(Yellow Cards)
Weverson
(Hamstring Injury)
- There will not play in Vasco: Adson
(Broken Leg)
Jair
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortaleza: Allanzinho
(Inactive)
Benevenuto
(Hamstring Injury)
Tinga
(Groin Injury)
- There are questionable in Vasco: Cuesta C.
(Thigh Injury)
Thiago Mendes
(Calf Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 1.8:0.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Vasco da Gama?
Fortaleza has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Fortaleza?
Vasco da Gama has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama were as follows:
17.05.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Fortaleza
3:0
09.11.2024
Fortaleza
-
Vasco da Gama
3:0
03.07.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Fortaleza
2:0
21.05.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Fortaleza
4:3
01.05.2024
Fortaleza
-
Vasco da Gama
0:0
Latest results of Fortaleza
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
