Result
3:0
17/05/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 9
- Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.60 | 0.87 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (355/410) | 83% (325/393) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.60 | 0.87 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.44 | 0.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (355/410) | 83% (325/393) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (23/43) | 47% (21/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (75/100) | 68% (78/115) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (5/13) | 7% (2/27) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.88 | 0.88 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (7/9) | 72% (13/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.42 | 2.44 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.42 | -0.56 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 3', 1 - 0, Moreira N. ⚽, Hugo Moura (A),
- 39', Moreira N. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Lucas Sasha ↓, Fernandez P. ↑,
- 46', Matheus Rossetto ↓, Emmanuel Martinez ↑,
- 46', 2 - 0, Vegetti P. ⚽, Paulo Henrique (A),
- 51', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
- 57', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
- 58', Mancuso E. ↓, Marinho ↑,
- 68', Marinho 🟥,
- 68', Coutinho 🟥,
- 77', Yago Pikachu ↓, Deyverson ↑,
- 80', 3 - 0, Vegetti P. ⚽, Lucas Piton (A),
- 87', Rayan ↓, Augusto L. ↑,
- 87', Hugo Moura ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
- 87', Moreira N. ↓, Adson ↑,
- 90', Breno Lopes ↓, Andrade K. ↑,
- 90+4', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
- 90+4', Tche Tche ↓, Lemos M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Vasco da Gama
37.6% | Draw
32.1% | Fortaleza
30.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+3.5%)The ML Model estimate for Fortaleza aligns with the current prediction.
Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.52 ↑
(2.33) |
2.94 ↓
(3.26) |
3.16 ↑
(3.07) |
5.4%
(6.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 30.4% – 86.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Vasco (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 3.
- Vasco has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Fortaleza is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Vasco has had a series of away games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Vasco: David
(Knee Injury)
Guilherme Estrella
(Knee Injury)
Lemos M.
(Injury)
Lucas Freitas
(Heel Injury)
Payet D.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Diogo Barbosa
(Injury)
Moises
(Thigh Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortaleza: Pedro Augusto
(Inactive)
Rodrigo
(Lacking Match Fitness)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 0.9:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 1.6:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Fortaleza?
Vasco da Gama has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Vasco da Gama?
Fortaleza has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza were as follows:
09.11.2024
Fortaleza
-
Vasco da Gama
3:0
03.07.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Fortaleza
2:0
21.05.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Fortaleza
4:3
01.05.2024
Fortaleza
-
Vasco da Gama
0:0
18.10.2023
Vasco da Gama
-
Fortaleza
1:0
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Latest results of Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 36:9 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 39 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32:14 | 18 | 38 |
| 4 | Bahia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 33 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 23:11 | 12 | 29 |
| 6 | Mirassol | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29:19 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 24:22 | 2 | 29 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 22:26 | -4 | 27 |
| 10 | Ceara | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 25 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:21 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Internacional | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22:26 | -4 | 24 |
| 13 | Gremio | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 22 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 20:29 | -9 | 21 |
| 16 | Vasco | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 25:26 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 | Juventude | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 17:38 | -21 | 18 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:31 | -12 | 15 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12:27 | -15 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
