Result
2:1
01/02/2026 at 08:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 21
- Referee: Martens R. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.01 | 0.60 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (269/367) | 75% (321/426) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.01 | 0.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.63 | 0.86 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (269/367) | 75% (321/426) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (21/59) | 31% (21/68) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (72/115) | 67% (82/122) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (3/12) | 21% (4/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 0.39 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 33% (4/12) | 73% (11/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.86 | 2.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.14 | 0.63 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 26', 1 - 0, Hrustic A. ⚽, van der Kust D. (A),
- 33', Hubner J. 🟨,
- 37', 1 - 1, Sierhuis K. ⚽, Peterson K. (A),
- 44', 2 - 1, Van Hoorenbeeck A. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 56', Adewoye S. 🟨,
- 58', Unuvar N. 🟨,
- 60', Marquez I. 🟨,
- 62', Adewoye S. ↓, Gladon P. ↑,
- 73', Unuvar N. ↓, Engels M. ↑,
- 77', Pinto I. ↓, Limnios D. ↑,
- 84', Hrustic A. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
- 84', Benita M. ↓, Wieckhoff J. ↑,
- 84', Zeefuik L. ↓, Kulenovic L. ↑,
- 88', Peterson K. ↓, Halilovic A. ↑,
- 89', Michut E. ↓, Bastien S. ↑,
- 90', Ould Chikh W. 🟨,
- 90+2', Ould Chikh W. ↓, Zamburek J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Heracles Almelo
43.2% | Draw
27.4% | Fortuna Sittard
29.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)Fortuna Sittard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortuna Sittard might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-4.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Sittard than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.2 ↓
(2.44) |
3.45
(3.45) |
3.21 ↑
(2.68) |
5.6%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Heracles will win (votes: 9 - 50%). Fortuna Sittard will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heracles: 26.9% – 73.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Heracles (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Fortuna Sittard (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 0.
- Heracles is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Fortuna Sittard has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Heracles may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Heracles: Reine-Adelaide J.
(Knee Injury)
Scheperman S.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Fortuna Sittard: Bayram R.
(Knee Injury)
Dahlhaus J.
(Inactive)
Sinkgraven D.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Heracles: Ahlstrand E.
(Injury)
de Keijzer F.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Fortuna Sittard: Lonwijk J.
(Inactive)
Tunjic L.
(Inactive)
- We predict that Fortuna Sittard will win today's game, with odds of 2.87.
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:15. (average 1.5:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:5. (average 2.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Heracles Almelo won against Fortuna Sittard?
Heracles Almelo has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortuna Sittard won against Heracles Almelo?
Fortuna Sittard has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard were as follows:
29.11.2025
Fortuna Sittard
-
Heracles Almelo
1:1
08.03.2025
Fortuna Sittard
-
Heracles Almelo
1:0
07.12.2024
Heracles Almelo
-
Fortuna Sittard
2:2
19.05.2024
Heracles Almelo
-
Fortuna Sittard
0:0
10.11.2023
Fortuna Sittard
-
Heracles Almelo
4:1
Latest results of Heracles Almelo
Latest results of Fortuna Sittard
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 70:29 | 41 | 62 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 55:33 | 22 | 48 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 59:40 | 19 | 43 |
| 4 | Ajax | 24 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 47:31 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 42:38 | 4 | 39 |
| 6 | Twente | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 39:26 | 13 | 38 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 31:40 | -9 | 37 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 36:31 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Groningen | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 40:42 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Sittard | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 36:43 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Zwolle | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 34:50 | -16 | 27 |
| 13 | G.A. Eagles | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 37:39 | -2 | 26 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26:41 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 26:39 | -13 | 24 |
| 16 | NAC Breda | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 22 |
| 17 | Telstar | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 28:41 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 | Heracles | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 31:62 | -31 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
