Result
3:2
07/03/2026 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Primera Division - Clausura - Round 11
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 El-salvador | TCS GO, Tigo Sports |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 70% | 30% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 45', 1 - 0, Gustavo Souza ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 68', 2 - 0, Rodriguez O. (Penalty Awarded),
- 83', 2 - 1, Torres V. ⚽,
- 85', 2 - 2, Sanchez E. ⚽,
- 90+3', 3 - 2, Orellana N. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Alianza San Miguel
70.8% | Draw
19.7% | Fuerte San Francisco
9.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza San Miguel's performance.Fuerte San Francisco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza San Miguel than the current prediction. (-5.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza San Miguel that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fuerte San Francisco than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
Alianza San Miguel - Fuerte San Francisco Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.3 ↓
(1.45) |
4.66 ↑
(3.85) |
9.76 ↑
(6.55) |
8.7%
(10.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Clausura ~ Play Offs: ) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 4.
- Alianza has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Fuerte has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, Alianza is the undeniable favorite.
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:9. (average 1.7:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Alianza won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:5. (average 2.3:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Alianza San Miguel won against Fuerte San Francisco?
Alianza San Miguel has won 10 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fuerte San Francisco won against Alianza San Miguel?
Fuerte San Francisco has won 3 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alianza San Miguel - Fuerte San Francisco were as follows:
16.11.2025
Fuerte San Francisco
-
Alianza San Miguel
1:3
14.09.2025
Alianza San Miguel
-
Fuerte San Francisco
1:0
18.05.2025
Alianza San Miguel
-
Fuerte San Francisco
2:0
15.05.2025
Fuerte San Francisco
-
Alianza San Miguel
0:1
23.04.2025
Fuerte San Francisco
-
Alianza San Miguel
1:0
Latest results of Alianza San Miguel
Latest results of Fuerte San Francisco
El Salvador Primera Division Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FAS | 14 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 32:9 | 23 | 36 |
| 2 | Luis Angel Firpo | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 23:14 | 9 | 29 |
| 3 | Alianza FC | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 25:19 | 6 | 25 |
| 4 | Municipal Limeno | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21:10 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | Inter F.A | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 18:14 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Metapan | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 16:17 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | Aguila | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 20 |
| 8 | Cacahuatique | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17:18 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Platense Municipal | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16:23 | -7 | 12 |
| 10 | Fuerte San Francisco | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 13:25 | -12 | 9 |
| 11 | Zacatecoluca | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12:23 | -11 | 6 |
| 12 | Hercules | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12:32 | -20 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Primera Division (Clausura ~ Play Offs: )
