Sydney Swans vs Geelong Cats – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Aussie rules AFL
Result
68:111
17/08/2025 at 01:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • AFL - Round 23
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaAFL, Fox Sports 503
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+, TNT Sports 3

Match Stats

Goals
1016
Behinds
815
Kicks
192225
Handballs
155117
Disposals
347342
Frees For
1214
Frees Against
1412
Clearances Completed
4333
Marks
77114
Tackles
6263
Hitouts
4347

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Quarter (27 - 27)
  • 00:20, Stengle T. (Behind),
  • 01:17, McLean H. (G),
  • 04:36, Heeney I. (G),
  • 06:16, McLean H. (Behind),
  • 07:43, Campbell B. (G),
  • 10:45, Ladhams P. (Behind),
  • 14:29, Heeney I. (Behind),
  • 17:36, Mannagh S. (Behind),
  • 19:43, Neale S. (G),
  • 22:01, Humphries L. (Behind),
  • 22:32, Martin J. (G),
  • 25:00, Miers G. (G),
  • 27:31, Neale S. (G),
  • 29:53, Ladhams P. (G),
  • 2nd Quarter (19 - 28)
  • 02:05, Buller J. (G),
  • 06:29, McCartin T. (G),
  • 07:35, Holmes M. (Behind),
  • 08:58, Neale S. (G),
  • 12:08, (Behind Rushed),
  • 13:19, Neale S. (G),
  • 15:48, Mannagh S. (Behind),
  • 18:19, Dempsey O. (Behind),
  • 22:30, (Behind Rushed),
  • 25:21, Martin J. (G),
  • 29:17, Stengle T. (G),
  • 31:10, McLean H. (G),
  • 3rd Quarter (8 - 25)
  • 01:07, Stengle T. (G),
  • 05:01, Buller J. (Behind),
  • 06:05, Mannagh S. (G),
  • 10:40, Ladhams P. (G),
  • 12:34, Dangerfield P. (G),
  • 16:37, Dempsey O. (G),
  • 19:50, Blicavs M. (Behind),
  • 26:22, Papley T. (Behind),
  • 4th Quarter (14 - 31)
  • 00:39, Stengle T. (G),
  • 02:47, Lloyd J. (Behind),
  • 03:44, Blicavs M. (Behind),
  • 04:41, Papley T. (G),
  • 06:35, Mannagh S. (G),
  • 08:25, Dangerfield P. (Behind),
  • 15:23, Mannagh S. (Behind),
  • 16:26, Mannagh S. (G),
  • 17:34, Miers G. (G),
  • 20:53, Martin J. (Behind),
  • 22:16, Stengle T. (Behind),
  • 23:33, (Behind Rushed),
  • 25:06, Neale S. (Behind),
  • 26:26, Papley T. (G),
  • 30:30, Cameron J. (Behind),

Chances of winning


Sydney Swans
30.1%		Geelong Cats
69.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
28.3% 71.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1% 65.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Sydney Swans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)
  • Geelong Cats has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney Swans than the current prediction. (+4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (-4%)
    •

    Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.09 ↓
    (3.37)
    		1.34 ↑
    (1.33)    		 6.7%
    (5.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 171.50
    • The most likely Handicap: 2 (-19)
    What is the prediction for Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats?
  • Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Geelong will win (votes: 5 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - Geelong (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -12.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -11.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -10.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -9.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -8.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -7.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -6.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -5.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -4.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -3.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -2.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -25.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -24.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -23.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -22.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -21.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -20.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -19.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -18.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -17.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -16.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -15.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -14.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -13.5 Points, OT - Geelong (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Geelong Cats will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 30 high ROI users predict this event. Geelong (votes: 30 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 77:96.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 2.
    • At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
    • Sydney may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Geelong is considered a favorite.
    • We predict that Sydney will win today's game, with odds of 3.21.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 1626:1670. (average 81.3:83.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Sydney won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 936:787. (average 93.6:78.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats were as follows:
    09.06.2024 Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats 112:82
    30.06.2023 Sydney Swans - Geelong Cats 54:54
    22.04.2023 Geelong Cats - Sydney Swans 130:37
    24.09.2022 Geelong Cats - Sydney Swans 133:52
    Latest results of Sydney Swans
    09.08.2025 Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans 90:92 ✺
    02.08.2025 Sydney Swans - Essendon Bombers 68:54 ✺
    25.07.2025 Greater Western Sydney Giants - Sydney Swans 102:58 ✺
    19.07.2025 Sydney Swans - North Melbourne Kangaroos 84:53
    13.07.2025 St Kilda Saints - Sydney Swans 87:92 ✺
    Latest results of Geelong Cats
    08.08.2025 Geelong Cats - Essendon Bombers 109:65 ✺
    03.08.2025 Geelong Cats - Port Adelaide Power 153:65 ✺
    26.07.2025 North Melbourne Kangaroos - Geelong Cats 49:150 ✺
    19.07.2025 Geelong Cats - St Kilda Saints 113:82 ✺
    12.07.2025 Greater Western Sydney Giants - Geelong Cats 111:85 ✺
    AFL Table
    2026
    PlWDL%%Pts
    1Gold Coast Suns3300384:201191.0412
    2Western Bulldogs3300339:247137.2512
    3Sydney Swans3201318:228139.478
    4Hawthorn Hawks3201339:287118.128
    5Fremantle Dockers2101218:180121.114
    6North Melbourne2101207:178116.294
    7Port Adelaide Power2101200:183109.294
    8Adelaide Crows2101181:173104.624
    9Collingwood Magpies2101157:15998.744
    10St Kilda Saints3102251:27292.284
    11Melbourne Demons2101190:22584.444
    12West Coast Eagles2101183:22581.334
    13GWS Giants3102249:30781.114
    14Geelong Cats2101179:22579.564
    15Carlton Blues2101144:20370.944
    16Brisbane Lions2002166:21577.210
    17Richmond Tigers2002131:20364.530
    18Essendon Bombers2002153:27855.040

          Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )

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