Result
3:2
04/10/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 11
- Referee: Drysdale D. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
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Expected Goals (xG) |
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2.59 | 2.74 |
Ball Possession |
---|
46% | 54% |
Total shots |
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13 | 14 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 4 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 4 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
3 | 4 |
Passes |
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59% (167/284) | 63% (203/320) |
Yellow Cards |
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2 | 3 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
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2.59 | 2.74 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
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1.89 | 1.64 |
Total shots |
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13 | 14 |
Shots on target |
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4 | 4 |
Shots off target |
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5 | 8 |
Blocked Shots |
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4 | 2 |
Shots inside the Box |
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8 | 10 |
Shots outside the Box |
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5 | 4 |
Hit the Woodwork |
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1 | 1 |
Big Chances |
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3 | 4 |
Corner Kicks |
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3 | 4 |
Touches in opposition box |
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18 | 22 |
Accurate through passes |
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0 | 1 |
Offsides |
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1 | 2 |
Free Kicks |
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11 | 20 |
Passes |
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59% (167/284) | 63% (203/320) |
Long passes |
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23% (20/86) | 32% (30/93) |
Passes in final third |
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40% (39/97) | 44% (50/113) |
Crosses |
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50% (5/10) | 28% (8/29) |
Expected assists (xA) |
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1.13 | 1.08 |
Throw-ins |
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13 | 30 |
Fouls |
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20 | 11 |
Tackles |
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31% (4/13) | 83% (10/12) |
Duels won |
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65 | 60 |
Clearances |
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45 | 22 |
Interceptions |
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8 | 9 |
Errors leading to shot |
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0 | 1 |
Errors leading to goal |
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0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
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2 | 2 |
xGOT faced |
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1.64 | 1.89 |
Goals prevented |
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-0.36 | -0.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 6', 1 - 0, Gale S. (Own goal),
- 34', Smith A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 57', 2 - 0, Mendez-Laing N. ⚽, Kelly L. (A),
- 60', Hutton R. 🟨,
- 63', Andrews J. 🟨,
- 63', Maguire L. 🟨,
- 65', Nevitt E. ↓, Palmer-Houlden S. ↑,
- 65', Andrews J. ↓, Vokes S. ↑,
- 69', 3 - 0, Paterson C. ⚽, Collar W. (A),
- 76', 3 - 1, Palmer-Houlden S. ⚽,
- 76', Ogie S. ↓, Clark M. ↑,
- 76', Rowe A. ↓, Cirino L. ↑,
- 83', Kelly L. ↓, Crowley D. ↑,
- 83', Collar W. ↓, Thompson-Sommers K. ↑,
- 87', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Leko J. ↑,
- 87', Maguire L. ↓, Thompson N. ↑,
- 90+3', Leko J. 🟨,
- 90+4', 3 - 2, Williams J. ⚽, Gale S. (A),
Chances of winning
Milton Keynes Dons 49.8% | Draw 27.5% | Gillingham 22.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Milton Keynes Dons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.93 ↑ (1.83) |
3.56 ↓ (3.58) |
4.37 ↑ (4.06) |
2.8% (7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Gillingham (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Gillingham will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 1.
- MK Dons is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Gillingham is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- MK Dons is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.5:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.5:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Milton Keynes Dons won against Gillingham?
Milton Keynes Dons has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gillingham won against Milton Keynes Dons?
Gillingham has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham were as follows:
12.04.2025
Gillingham
-
Milton Keynes Dons
1:0
14.12.2024
Milton Keynes Dons
-
Gillingham
0:1
27.01.2024
Milton Keynes Dons
-
Gillingham
2:1
07.10.2023
Gillingham
-
Milton Keynes Dons
2:1
Latest results of Milton Keynes Dons
Latest results of Gillingham
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Walsall | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19:12 | 7 | 26 |
2 | Swindon | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 24:19 | 5 | 25 |
3 | MK Dons | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26:13 | 13 | 24 |
4 | Grimsby | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 25:15 | 10 | 24 |
5 | Gillingham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 18:12 | 6 | 22 |
6 | Chesterfield | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 23:20 | 3 | 22 |
7 | Salford | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 18:17 | 1 | 22 |
8 | Notts Co | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23:15 | 8 | 21 |
9 | Cambridge Utd | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16:13 | 3 | 21 |
10 | Barnet | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 16:13 | 3 | 20 |
11 | Crewe | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 17:16 | 1 | 19 |
12 | Fleetwood | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19:19 | 0 | 19 |
13 | Bromley | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 19:17 | 2 | 18 |
14 | Colchester | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 21:18 | 3 | 17 |
15 | Barrow | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 11:13 | -2 | 17 |
16 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14:21 | -7 | 17 |
17 | Oldham | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 10:10 | 0 | 15 |
18 | Tranmere | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20:18 | 2 | 14 |
19 | Harrogate | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15:20 | -5 | 14 |
20 | Accrington | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11:14 | -3 | 12 |
21 | Shrewsbury | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 12 |
22 | Cheltenham | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9:25 | -16 | 11 |
23 | Crawley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10:22 | -12 | 9 |
24 | Newport | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11:23 | -12 | 8 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League