Result
0:2
17/03/2026 at 15:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 38
- Referee: Heaslip E. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.76 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 61% (211/345) | 60% (219/366) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.76 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.34 | 1.04 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 61% (211/345) | 60% (219/366) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (33/75) | 21% (20/94) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 59% (99/169) | 49% (54/110) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (5/32) | 11% (1/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.88 | 0.42 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 36 | 31 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 65% (11/17) | 64% (9/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 66 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 52 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.34 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.96 | 0.34 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 27', Beckles O. 🟨,
- 43', Wright W. 🟨,
- 45', Tafazolli R. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 59', Bodin B. ↓, Holman F. ↑,
- 60', Batty J. ↓, Kirkman B. ↑,
- 60', Hoilett J. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
- 68', 0 - 1, Drinan A. ⚽, Ripley C. (A),
- 75', Oldaker D. ↓, McGregor J. ↑,
- 77', Drinan A. 🟨,
- 81', Clark M. ↓, McCleary G. ↑,
- 81', Hale R. ↓, Palmer-Houlden S. ↑,
- 81', Andrews J. ↓, Vokes S. ↑,
- 86', 0 - 2, Holman F. ⚽, McGregor J. (A),
Chances of winning
Gillingham
33.6% | Draw
27.9% | Swindon Town
38.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+3.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
Gillingham - Swindon Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.8 ↑
(2.5) |
3.36 ↑
(3.15) |
2.42 ↓
(2.6) |
6.9%
(10.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Gillingham - Swindon Town?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Gillingham (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Swindon Town will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Swindon Town will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Gillingham (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Swindon (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 16 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gillingham won 1.
- Recent form of Gillingham has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Swindon has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Swindon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Swindon will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Gillingham: Antwi C.
(Injury)
Masterson C.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D.
(Inactive)
Glatzel P.
(Inactive)
Minturn H.
(Groin Injury)
Smith H.
(Knee Injury)
Snowdon J.
(Injury)
Wilson-Brown T.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Gillingham: Coleman E.
(Inactive)
Gale S.
(Inactive)
Smith J.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Swindon: Ball J.
(Inactive)
Olakigbe M.
(Inactive)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Gillingham won 7 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:19. (average 1.5:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gillingham won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.1:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Gillingham won against Swindon Town?
Gillingham has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Gillingham?
Swindon Town has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gillingham - Swindon Town were as follows:
01.01.2026
Swindon Town
-
Gillingham
2:0
26.04.2025
Gillingham
-
Swindon Town
1:1
26.10.2024
Swindon Town
-
Gillingham
1:1
13.02.2024
Gillingham
-
Swindon Town
2:2
24.10.2023
Swindon Town
-
Gillingham
0:1
Latest results of Gillingham
Latest results of Swindon Town
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 39 | 22 | 13 | 4 | 62:36 | 26 | 79 |
| 2 | MK Dons | 39 | 21 | 11 | 7 | 76:40 | 36 | 74 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 38 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 56:28 | 28 | 72 |
| 4 | Notts Co | 38 | 21 | 7 | 10 | 65:39 | 26 | 70 |
| 5 | Swindon | 39 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 63:45 | 18 | 69 |
| 6 | Salford | 39 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 54:48 | 6 | 67 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 56:40 | 16 | 62 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 39 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 61:52 | 9 | 62 |
| 9 | Crewe | 39 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 58:47 | 11 | 60 |
| 10 | Walsall | 39 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 48:41 | 7 | 60 |
| 11 | Oldham | 37 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 44:31 | 13 | 58 |
| 12 | Barnet | 39 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 49:43 | 6 | 57 |
| 13 | Fleetwood | 39 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 48:46 | 2 | 54 |
| 14 | Colchester | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 50:41 | 9 | 53 |
| 15 | Accrington | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 38:42 | -4 | 48 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 44:56 | -12 | 45 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 39 | 13 | 4 | 22 | 40:60 | -20 | 43 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 43:65 | -22 | 42 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 39 | 11 | 8 | 20 | 37:63 | -26 | 41 |
| 20 | Tranmere | 39 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 48:69 | -21 | 36 |
| 21 | Crawley | 39 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 36:60 | -24 | 31 |
| 22 | Newport | 39 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 39:67 | -28 | 31 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 39 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 29:58 | -29 | 30 |
| 24 | Barrow | 38 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 36:63 | -27 | 29 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
