Result
0:2
21/02/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- HNL - Round 23
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Croatia | MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.76 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (405/499) | 76% (238/315) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.76 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 1.20 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 14 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (405/499) | 76% (238/315) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (30/65) | 37% (18/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (93/151) | 72% (56/78) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (4/25) | 28% (5/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.78 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 26 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (15/22) | 41% (7/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.48 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.80 | 0.48 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 41', 0 - 1, Pavicic D. ⚽, Sule W. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 57', Kumar R. ↓, Taraba F. ↑,
- 60', Loncar S. 🟨,
- 61', Ayuma I. 🟨,
- 63', Ayuma I. ↓, Mauric A. ↑,
- 63', Rozic V. ↓, Gorican S. ↑,
- 67', Sule W. ↓, Erceg A. ↑,
- 67', Bogojevic B. ↓, Vrzic L. ↑,
- 72', Peric S. 🟨,
- 72', Sepic N. ↓, Heister M. ↑,
- 73', Frederiksen E. ↓, Skafar Zuzic N. ↑,
- 79', 0 - 2, Prsir J. ⚽, Pavicic D. (A),
- 80', Prsir J. ↓, Les M. ↑,
- 86', Pavicic D. ↓, Kucis S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Istra 1961
39% | Draw
29.9% | Gorica
31.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Istra 1961 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Istra 1961's form might have worsened.Gorica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Istra 1961 than the current prediction. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gorica than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
Istra 1961 - Gorica Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.37 ↑
(2.07) |
3.15 ↓
(3.16) |
3.05 ↓
(3.43) |
6.7%
(9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Istra 1961 - Gorica?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Istra 1961 will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Gorica will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Istra 1961: 54% – 99.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Istra 1961 (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 and 8)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 1.
- Istra 1961 has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Gorica has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Gorica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Gorica has had a series of home games.
- Istra 1961 might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Istra 1961: Loncar S.
(Yellow Cards)
Mauric A.
(Inactive)
Robertsson L.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Gorica: Bakic O.
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Istra 1961 won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 0.8:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Istra 1961 won against Gorica?
Istra 1961 has won 6 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gorica won against Istra 1961?
Gorica has won 7 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Istra 1961 - Gorica were as follows:
23.11.2025
Gorica
-
Istra 1961
1:0
29.08.2025
Istra 1961
-
Gorica
1:0
12.04.2025
Gorica
-
Istra 1961
3:2
31.01.2025
Istra 1961
-
Gorica
0:0
27.10.2024
Gorica
-
Istra 1961
1:0
Latest results of Istra 1961
Croatian HNL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Din. Zagreb | 23 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 52:17 | 35 | 51 |
| 2 | Hajduk Split | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 35:20 | 15 | 46 |
| 3 | Rijeka | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 34:25 | 9 | 32 |
| 4 | Varazdin | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 29:34 | -5 | 32 |
| 5 | Slaven Belupo | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 32:36 | -4 | 31 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 29:34 | -5 | 30 |
| 7 | Lok. Zagreb | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 29:35 | -6 | 29 |
| 8 | Gorica | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 25:32 | -7 | 26 |
| 9 | Vukovar 1991 | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 26:41 | -15 | 20 |
| 10 | Osijek | 23 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 19:36 | -17 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Prva NL
