Stal Mielec vs Górnik Zabrze – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

22/04/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec).

Ekstraklasa - Round 29
Referee: Musial T. (Pol)
Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 8
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.38	1.58
Ball Possession
47%	53%
Total shots
7	10
Shots on target
2	3
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
4	6
Passes
84% (373/442)	87% (434/497)
Yellow Cards
4	0
Red Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.38	1.58
xG on target (xGOT)
0.69	0.84
Total shots
7	10
Shots on target
2	3
Shots off target
4	5
Blocked Shots
1	2
Shots inside the Box
5	5
Shots outside the Box
2	5
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
4	6
Touches in opposition box
14	15
Offsides
3	1
Free Kicks
7	16
Passes
84% (373/442)	87% (434/497)
Long passes
57% (31/54)	52% (33/64)
Passes in final third
70% (68/97)	80% (103/128)
Crosses
30% (6/20)	10% (2/20)
Expected assists (xA)
0.63	0.87
Fouls
16	7
Tackles
67% (12/18)	65% (11/17)
Duels won
41	49
Clearances Total
11	19
Interceptions
5	11
Errors leading to shot
1	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	2
xGOT faced
0.84	0.69
Goals prevented
0.84	0.69

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Jaunzems A. 🟨,
19', Wlazlo P. 🟨,
45+3', Cavaleiro I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gerbowski F. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
54', Szala D. ↓, Olkowski P. ↑,
63', Hannola P. ↓, Knap K. ↑,
63', Zahovic L. ↓, Ambros L. ↑,
63', Furukawa Y. ↓, Sow O. ↑,
69', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
69', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
77', Wlazlo P. 🟨,
89', Podolski L. ↓, Liseth S. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Stal Mielec
34.5%

Draw
27.7%

Górnik Zabrze
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

28.8%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

27.8%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Górnik Zabrze, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.49)	3.38 ↑ (3.23)	2.48 ↓ (2.75)	6.5% (7.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Górnik Zabrze will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Górnik Zabrze: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 5.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.25 - Górnik Zabrze (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Górnik Zabrze will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Górnik Zabrze (votes: 5 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 9).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 2.
Stal Mielec has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches Górnik Zabrze is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Janza E. (Suspended)
There are questionable in Górnik Zabrze: Lukoszek K. (Inactive)
Last 11 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 11:17 (average 1:1.5).
Including matches at home between the teams Stal Mielec won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4:8 (average 0.8:1.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Stal Mielec won against Górnik Zabrze?

Stal Mielec has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Górnik Zabrze won against Stal Mielec?

Górnik Zabrze has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze were as follows:

20.10.2024 Górnik Zabrze - Stal Mielec 3:1

11.05.2024 Górnik Zabrze - Stal Mielec 1:1

12.11.2023 Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze 2:1

26.02.2023 Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze 0:1

Latest results of Stal Mielec

14.04.2025 Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec 3:2 ✺

04.04.2025 Stal Mielec - Cracovia 1:1 ✺

30.03.2025 Motor Lublin - Stal Mielec 4:1 ✺

15.03.2025 Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław 1:4 ✺

08.03.2025 Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec 3:1 ✺

Latest results of Górnik Zabrze

11.04.2025 Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze 2:1 ✺

06.04.2025 Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw 1:2 ✺

30.03.2025 GKS Katowice - Górnik Zabrze 2:1 ✺

15.03.2025 Górnik Zabrze - Motor Lublin 4:0 ✺

09.03.2025 Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze 1:2 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	27	12	9	6	46:37	9	45
2	Jagiellonia	27	11	9	7	43:34	9	42
3	Gornik Zabrze	27	12	6	9	39:32	7	42
4	Zaglebie	27	11	8	8	41:33	8	41
5	Wisla Plock	27	10	9	8	28:26	2	39
6	Rakow	27	11	6	10	36:34	2	39
7	GKS Katowice	27	12	3	12	36:35	1	39
8	Motor Lublin	27	9	11	7	36:39	-3	38
9	Lechia Gdansk	27	12	6	9	55:50	5	37
10	Korona Kielce	27	10	6	11	35:33	2	36
11	Cracovia	27	9	9	9	31:31	0	36
12	Piast Gliwice	27	10	5	12	34:36	-2	35
13	Radomiak Radom	27	8	10	9	43:41	2	34
14	Pogon Szczecin	27	10	4	13	36:42	-6	34
15	Legia	27	7	12	8	32:31	1	33
16	Arka Gdynia	27	9	6	12	28:45	-17	33
17	Widzew Lodz	27	8	6	13	32:35	-3	30
18	Termalica B-B	27	6	7	14	33:50	-17	25

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1