Result
5:2
05/12/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 18
- Referee: Malec P. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 3 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Poland | CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Ukraine | Sport 1 |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV |
 World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.57 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (176/248) | 81% (299/370) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.57 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.82 | 1.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (176/248) | 81% (299/370) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (14/40) | 53% (31/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 52% (40/77) | 61% (44/72) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (1/7) | 31% (4/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 0.46 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 25 | 29 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 4 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (9/13) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.12 | 2.82 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.88 | -2.18 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 2)
- 7', 1 - 0, Bobcek T. ⚽, Cirkovic A. (A),
- 35', 1 - 1, Hellebrand P. ⚽,
- 45+4', 2 - 1, Sezonienko K. ⚽, Vojtko M. (A),
- 45+8', 3 - 1, Sezonienko K. ⚽, Bobcek T. (A),
- 45+13', Neugebauer T. 🟨,
- 45+17', 3 - 2, Janicki R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Donio B. ↓, Lukoszek K. ↑,
- 54', Cirkovic A. 🟨,
- 56', Kapic R. 🟨,
- 60', 4 - 2, Bobcek T. ⚽, Cirkovic A. (A),
- 68', Goh Young-Jun ↓, Podolski L. ↑,
- 69', Szczesniak K. ↓, Kmet M. ↑,
- 69', Cirkovic A. ↓, Viunnyk B. ↑,
- 69', Bobcek T. ↓, Kurminowski D. ↑,
- 71', 5 - 2, Viunnyk B. ⚽, Neugebauer T. (A),
- 83', Khlan M. ↓, Dziegielewski N. ↑,
- 89', Sow O. ↓, Abdullahi A. ↑,
- 90+2', Dyachuk M. 🟨,
- 90+2', Dziegielewski N. 🟨,
- 90+2', Rodin M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Lechia Gdańsk
49% | Draw
25.8% | Górnik Zabrze
25.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lechia Gdańsk's performance.Górnik Zabrze has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Górnik Zabrze might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-15.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lechia Gdańsk that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (+12.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Górnik Zabrze could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.93 ↓
(2.64) |
3.65 ↑
(3.09) |
3.74 ↑
(2.39) |
6.1%
(12.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze?
Users Predictions:
20 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 15 - 75%). Górnik Zabrze will win (votes: 3 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lechia: 56% – 94%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Górnik Zabrze (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 1 - 50%). Górnik Zabrze (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Recently, Lechia has had a series of home games.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Lechia: Jaunzems A.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Sacek M.
(Leg Injury)
Szala D.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Górnik Zabrze: Massimo R.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:24. (average 1.6:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.6:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Lechia Gdańsk won against Górnik Zabrze?
Lechia Gdańsk has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Górnik Zabrze won against Lechia Gdańsk?
Górnik Zabrze has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze were as follows:
02.12.2025
Lechia Gdańsk
-
Górnik Zabrze
1:3
20.07.2025
Górnik Zabrze
-
Lechia Gdańsk
2:1
09.03.2025
Lechia Gdańsk
-
Górnik Zabrze
1:2
01.09.2024
Górnik Zabrze
-
Lechia Gdańsk
2:3
04.02.2023
Górnik Zabrze
-
Lechia Gdańsk
1:1
Latest results of Lechia Gdańsk
Latest results of Górnik Zabrze
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 49:40 | 9 | 46 |
| 2 | Zaglebie | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 42:33 | 9 | 44 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 44:35 | 9 | 43 |
| 4 | Gornik Zabrze | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 40:33 | 7 | 43 |
| 5 | Wisla Plock | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 29:26 | 3 | 42 |
| 6 | Rakow | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 37:35 | 2 | 40 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 39:38 | 1 | 40 |
| 8 | Motor Lublin | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 37:40 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Lechia Gdansk | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 55:51 | 4 | 37 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 36:34 | 2 | 37 |
| 11 | Cracovia | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 33:33 | 0 | 37 |
| 12 | Pogon Szczecin | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 38:42 | -4 | 37 |
| 13 | Piast Gliwice | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 34:38 | -4 | 35 |
| 14 | Legia | 28 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 33:32 | 1 | 34 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 43:42 | 1 | 34 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 30:47 | -17 | 34 |
| 17 | Widzew Lodz | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33:35 | -2 | 33 |
| 18 | Termalica B-B | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 33:51 | -18 | 25 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
