Result
0:4
07/12/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 38
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 1.60 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (411/460) | 93% (552/592) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 1.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.80 | 3.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (411/460) | 93% (552/592) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 68% (13/19) | 82% (36/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (106/132) | 88% (133/151) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (2/10) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.25 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 29% (5/17) | 63% (5/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 18 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.00 | 0.80 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 3)
- 18', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
- 21', Alysson 🟨,
- 28', Igor Carius ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 29', 0 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Cristaldo F. (A),
- 31', 0 - 2, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Edenilson (A),
- 40', Alysson ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 42', 0 - 3, Gustavo Martins ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
- 45+1', Amuzu F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Matheusinho ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
- 46', Luan Candido ↓, Rafinha ↑,
- 47', Amuzu F. ↓, Willian ↑,
- 48', 0 - 4, Cristaldo F. ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
- 60', Romarinho ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
- 60', Paciencia G. ↓, Oliveira S. ↑,
- 66', Edenilson ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
- 66', Marlon ↓, Lucas Esteves ↑,
- 76', Cuellar G. 🟨,
- 77', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 80', Camilo Reijers 🟨,
Chances of winning
Sport Recife
24.4% | Draw
26% | Grêmio
49.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
Sport Recife - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.92 ↓
(4.22) |
3.66 ↓
(3.92) |
1.92 ↑
(1.77) |
5.1%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Sport Recife - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Grêmio will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 35% – 88%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.75 - Grêmio (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- Recife is Relegated to Serie B Superbet
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3.
- Recife is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Grêmio has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Recife may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Grêmio is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Recife: Denis
(Knee Injury)
Derik Lacerda
(Inactive)
Rivera C.
(Yellow Cards)
Ze Lucas
(International duty)
Ze Roberto
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Arthur Melo
(Yellow Cards)
Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Dodi
(Yellow Cards)
Fabian Balbuena
(Ankle Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Muscle Injury)
Olivera C.
(Ankle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Recife: Gomes do Nascimento A.
(Injury)
Hyoran
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Monsalve M.
(Inactive)
- We predict that Grêmio will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Recife won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:28. (average 1.4:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:9. (average 1.3:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Sport Recife won against Grêmio?
Sport Recife has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Sport Recife?
Grêmio has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sport Recife - Grêmio were as follows:
10.08.2025
Grêmio
-
Sport Recife
0:1
20.09.2022
Grêmio
-
Sport Recife
3:0
Latest results of Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:4 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bahia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Corinthians | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Chapecoense-SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:6 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Mirassol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Flamengo RJ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Gremio | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico-MG | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Remo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:7 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Vasco | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Santos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 |
| 19 | Internacional | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
