Result
3:1
30/01/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 21
- Referee: Roffet B. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.32 | 1.06 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (232/292) | 81% (359/442) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.32 | 1.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.58 | 0.41 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 23 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (232/292) | 81% (359/442) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 27% (13/48) | 47% (24/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (41/61) | 70% (97/139) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (2/13) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.09 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 23 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (10/18) | 69% (9/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 58 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.41 | 2.58 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.59 | -0.42 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 7', Mbuku N. 🟨,
- 15', Mouanga Y. ↓, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ↑,
- 18', 0 - 1, Mafouta L. ⚽, Ott G. (A),
- 21', Abdallah A. 🟨,
- 42', 1 - 1, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ⚽, Mbuku N. (A),
- 45', Laporte J. 🟨,
- 45+2', Ott G. ↓, Hatchi J. ↑,
- 45+5', Nair S. 🟨,
- 45+7', 2 - 1, Mendy A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Mincarelli L. ↓, El Hannach N. ↑,
- 64', El Hannach N. 🟨,
- 73', Hatchi J. 🟨,
- 74', Mbuku N. ↓, Fayad K. ↑,
- 79', Sissoko A. 🟨,
- 80', 3 - 1, Mendy A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 80', Pays N. ↓, Sishuba A. ↑,
- 81', Issoufou Y. ↓, Jullien C. ↑,
- 81', Louiserre D. ↓, Ahile T. ↑,
- 81', Demoncy Y. ↓, Njoya Y. ↑,
- 82', Gomis D. 🟨,
- 90+1', Sissoko A. ↓, Koffi E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Montpellier
39.4% | Draw
29.6% | Guingamp
31% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)Guingamp has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+4.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
Montpellier - Guingamp Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.37 ↑
(2.21) |
3.17 ↓
(3.18) |
3.03 ↓
(3.19) |
6.7%
(8.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Montpellier - Guingamp?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Guingamp will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 38.6% – 83.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 7).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 1.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Recently, Montpellier has had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Montpellier: Ngosso G.
(Knee Injury)
Sainte-Luce T.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Guingamp: Hemia A.
(Knee Injury)
Matumona J.
(Red Card)
Mbemba F.
(Red Card)
N'Landu D.
(Knee Injury)
Planeix I.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Guingamp: Sidibe K.
(Injury)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:11. (average 1.4:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Montpellier won against Guingamp?
Montpellier has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Guingamp won against Montpellier?
Guingamp has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Montpellier - Guingamp were as follows:
15.09.2025
Guingamp
-
Montpellier
1:0
Latest results of Montpellier
Latest results of Guingamp
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 38:25 | 13 | 45 |
| 2 | St Etienne | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 41:29 | 12 | 43 |
| 3 | Reims | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 37:23 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Le Mans | 24 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 30:24 | 6 | 40 |
| 5 | Red Star | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 30:25 | 5 | 40 |
| 6 | Dunkerque | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40:25 | 15 | 38 |
| 7 | Annecy | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 32:25 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | Rodez | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 31:31 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | Montpellier | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 28:25 | 3 | 34 |
| 10 | Guingamp | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 35:36 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 | Pau FC | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 37:39 | -2 | 34 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 24 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 24:29 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | Nancy | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 21:32 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Boulogne | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 26 |
| 15 | Clermont | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 25 |
| 16 | Amiens | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 28:39 | -11 | 23 |
| 17 | Bastia | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 12:25 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 | Laval | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 18:34 | -16 | 18 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
