Hamburger SV vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
4:0
05/10/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 6
  • Referee: Hartmann R. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes World Football
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 3
australiaAustraliaAmazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
austriaAustriaDAZN, Sky Go Austria
belgiumBelgiumPlay Sports 1, Play Sports 2
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
bulgariaBulgariaNova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaDisney+
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Sports MAX 6
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 4
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
israelIsraelSport 4
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 259, Sky Sport MIX
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN SPORTS MAX
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 6
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 4
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 1
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 2
portugalPortugalDAZN 3, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaShahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 2
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaSport TV2, Voyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Sport 2
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.950.67
Ball Possession
35%65%
Total shots
1511
Shots on target
94
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
14
Passes
68% (195/285)83% (426/512)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
1.950.67
xG on target (xGOT)
3.021.23
Total shots
1511
Shots on target
94
Shots off target
54
Blocked Shots
13
Shots inside the Box
117
Shots outside the Box
44
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
14
Touches in opposition box
1621
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
33
Free Kicks
1314
Passes
68% (195/285)83% (426/512)
Long passes
39% (26/67)47% (25/53)
Passes in final third
42% (32/77)67% (101/150)
Crosses
20% (1/5)38% (8/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.371.06
Throw-ins
2532
Fouls
1413
Tackles
76% (16/21)60% (6/10)
Duels won
5954
Clearances
3531
Interceptions
1315
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
45
xGOT faced
1.233.02
Goals prevented
1.23-0.98

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 6', 1 - 0, Lokonga A. S. ⚽, Gocholeishvili G. (A),
  • 10', 2 - 0, Philippe R. ⚽, Konigsdorffer R. (A),
  • 17', Elfadli D. 🟨,
  • 42', Lee Jae-Sung 🟨,
  • 45+3', Kohr D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Mwene P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
  • 52', 3 - 0, Dompe J. ⚽, Capaldo N. (A),
  • 61', 4 - 0, Philippe R. ⚽, Remberg N. (A),
  • 61', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
  • 62', Kohr D. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
  • 62', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Meffert J. ↑,
  • 65', Remberg N. 🟨,
  • 65', Amiri N. 🟨,
  • 67', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
  • 67', Dompe J. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
  • 71', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
  • 82', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
  • 82', Philippe R. ↓, Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↑,
  • 82', Gocholeishvili G. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Hamburger SV
39.6%		Draw
28.1%		Mainz
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.9% 25.8% 40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2% 25.2% 41.2%

Hamburger SV - Mainz Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 2.79 ↓
(2.81)		 4.08 ↑
(3.7)		 3.75 ↑
(2.37)		 -13%
(4.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Hamburger SV - Mainz?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 9 - 34.6%). Mainz will win (votes: 10 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 26.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 19.8% – 57.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.
    • Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Mainz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Hamburg: Omari W. (Injury) Vieira F. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Muscle Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Zentner R. (Red Card)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Leitsch M. (Illness)
    • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 0.9:1).
    Latest results of Hamburger SV
    28.09.2025 Union Berlin - Hamburger SV 0:0 ✺
    20.09.2025 Hamburger SV - Heidenheim 2:1 ✺
    13.09.2025 Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV 5:0 ✺
    04.09.2025 Hamburger SV - Hannover 1:3
    29.08.2025 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 0:2 ✺
    Latest results of Mainz
    02.10.2025 Omonia - Mainz 0:1 ✺
    27.09.2025 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 0:2 ✺
    20.09.2025 Augsburg - Mainz 1:4 ✺
    13.09.2025 Mainz - RB Leipzig 0:1 ✺
    31.08.2025 Wolfsburg - Mainz 1:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich1091035:62928
    2RB Leipzig1071220:13722
    3Dortmund1063116:7921
    4Stuttgart1070317:12521
    5Bayer Leverkusen1062224:141020
    6Hoffenheim1061321:16519
    7Eintracht Frankfurt1052323:19417
    8Werder Bremen1043315:18-315
    9FC Koln1042417:15214
    10Freiburg1034313:14-113
    11Union Berlin1033413:17-412
    12B. Monchengladbach1023513:19-69
    13Hamburger SV102359:16-79
    14Wolfsburg1022612:18-68
    15Augsburg1021714:24-107
    16St. Pauli102179:20-117
    17Mainz1012710:18-85
    18Heidenheim101278:23-155

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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