Mainz vs Hamburger SV – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

20/02/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Mewa Arena (Mainz).

Bundesliga - Round 23
Referee: Braun R. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN
Armenia	Setanta Sports 1
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Brazil	SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 5 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.35	0.65
Ball possession
45%	55%
Total shots
17	14
Shots on target
3	5
Big chances
2	1
Corner kicks
7	2
Passes
74% (232/313)	83% (336/405)
Yellow cards
3	2
Expected goals (xG)
1.35	0.65
xG on target (xGOT)
1.37	0.85
Total shots
17	14
Shots on target
3	5
Shots off target
9	7
Blocked shots
5	2
Shots inside the box
14	5
Shots outside the box
3	9
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
2	1
Corner kicks
7	2
Touches in opposition box
36	11
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	1
Free kicks
13	16
Passes
74% (232/313)	83% (336/405)
Long passes
40% (23/58)	52% (24/46)
Passes in final third
58% (63/108)	60% (61/101)
Crosses
30% (9/30)	21% (3/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.97	0.52
Throw ins
14	14
Fouls
16	13
Tackles
35% (7/20)	92% (11/12)
Duels won
58	55
Clearances
18	40
Interceptions
8	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
4	2
xGOT faced
0.85	1.37
Goals prevented
-0.15	0.37

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Silas 🟨,
34', Muheim M. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Amiri N. ⚽, da Costa D. (A),
45+1', Kohr D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Silas ↓, Becker S. ↑,
58', Remberg N. 🟨,
58', Kohr D. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Vieira F. ⚽,
65', Glatzel R. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
65', Jatta B. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
76', Otele P. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
87', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
87', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Elfadli D. ↑,
88', Muheim M. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
90', Potulski K. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Mainz
45.4%

Draw
28.1%

Hamburger SV
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

29.2%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

28.3%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-3%)

Mainz - Hamburger SV Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.04)	3.4 ↑ (3.26)	3.59 ↓ (3.94)	4.8% (5.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Mainz - Hamburger SV?

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 35 - 62.5%). Hamburg will win (votes: 4 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 30.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 49.8% – 75.2%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 16 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Mainz (1.31) (votes: 3 - 60%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Hamburg (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Mainz (1.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 24 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 16 - 66.7%). Hamburg (votes: 3 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 20.8%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2.
Mainz has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Hamburg is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Mainz could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 1.3:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.8:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Hamburger SV?

Mainz has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Hamburger SV won against Mainz?

Hamburger SV has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Hamburger SV were as follows:

05.10.2025 Hamburger SV - Mainz 4:0

Latest results of Mainz

13.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 4:0 ✺

07.02.2026 Mainz - Augsburg 2:0 ✺

31.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2 ✺

24.01.2026 Mainz - Wolfsburg 3:1 ✺

17.01.2026 Köln - Mainz 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Hamburger SV

14.02.2026 Hamburger SV - Union Berlin 3:2 ✺

07.02.2026 Heidenheim - Hamburger SV 0:2 ✺

31.01.2026 Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich 2:2 ✺

23.01.2026 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 0:0 ✺

17.01.2026 Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:0 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	24	20	3	1	88:23	65	63
2	Dortmund	24	15	7	2	51:25	26	52
3	Hoffenheim	24	14	4	6	49:31	18	46
4	Stuttgart	24	14	4	6	48:32	16	46
5	RB Leipzig	24	13	5	6	46:33	13	44
6	Bayer Leverkusen	23	12	4	7	44:29	15	40
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	24	9	7	8	48:49	-1	34
8	Freiburg	24	9	6	9	34:39	-5	33
9	Augsburg	24	9	4	11	30:41	-11	31
10	Union Berlin	24	7	7	10	29:38	-9	28
11	Hamburger SV	23	6	8	9	26:34	-8	26
12	B. Monchengladbach	24	6	7	11	27:39	-12	25
13	FC Koln	24	6	6	12	33:41	-8	24
14	Mainz	24	5	8	11	27:39	-12	23
15	St. Pauli	24	6	5	13	23:40	-17	23
16	Werder Bremen	24	5	7	12	25:44	-19	22
17	Wolfsburg	24	5	5	14	33:53	-20	20
18	Heidenheim	24	3	5	16	22:53	-31	14

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga