Mainz vs Hamburger SV – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:1
20/02/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 23
  • Referee: Braun R. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaAzam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 2
angolaAngolaZ Sports 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 3, ESPN
armeniaArmeniaSetanta Sports 1
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
azerbaijanAzerbaijanSetanta Sports 1
belgiumBelgiumPlay Sports 1
brazilBrazilSporTV
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaDisney+
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
ecuadorEcuadorESPN 5
europeEuropeSetanta Sports 1 Baltic
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 1
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
hungaryHungaryArena 4
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaSony LIV, Vision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
israelIsraelSport 1
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanSetanta Sports 1
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 5
mexicoMexicoIzzi TV, Sky Sport
moldovaMoldovaSetanta Sports 1
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 5
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaRUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1
portugalPortugalDAZN 2, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 5
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaNova Sport 3, Voyo
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 5 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
tajikistanTajikistanSetanta Sports 1
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
turkmenistanTurkmenistanSetanta Sports 1
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomBBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
uzbekistanUzbekistanSetanta Sports 1
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN 5
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.350.65
Ball possession
45%55%
Total shots
1714
Shots on target
35
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
72
Passes
74% (232/313)83% (336/405)
Yellow cards
32
Expected goals (xG)
1.350.65
xG on target (xGOT)
1.370.85
Total shots
1714
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
97
Blocked shots
52
Shots inside the box
145
Shots outside the box
39
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
72
Touches in opposition box
3611
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free kicks
1316
Passes
74% (232/313)83% (336/405)
Long passes
40% (23/58)52% (24/46)
Passes in final third
58% (63/108)60% (61/101)
Crosses
30% (9/30)21% (3/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.970.52
Throw ins
1414
Fouls
1613
Tackles
35% (7/20)92% (11/12)
Duels won
5855
Clearances
1840
Interceptions
88
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
42
xGOT faced
0.851.37
Goals prevented
-0.150.37

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 12', Silas 🟨,
  • 34', Muheim M. 🟨,
  • 42', 1 - 0, Amiri N. , da Costa D. (A),
  • 45+1', Kohr D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Silas , Becker S. ,
  • 58', Remberg N. 🟨,
  • 58', Kohr D. , Veratschnig N. ,
  • 64', 1 - 1, Vieira F. ,
  • 65', Glatzel R. , Poulsen Y. ,
  • 65', Jatta B. , Mikelbrencis W. ,
  • 76', Otele P. , Philippe R. ,
  • 87', Lee Jae-Sung , Nebel P. ,
  • 87', Konigsdorffer R. , Elfadli D. ,
  • 88', Muheim M. , Gocholeishvili G. ,
  • 90', Potulski K. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Mainz
45.4%
Draw
28.1%
Hamburger SV
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
46.6% 29.2% 24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48% 28.3% 23.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
  • Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-3%)
  • Mainz - Hamburger SV Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.11
    (2.04)
    3.4
    (3.26)
    3.59
    (3.94)
    4.8%
    (5.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Mainz - Hamburger SV?
  • Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 35 - 62.5%). Hamburg will win (votes: 4 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 30.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 49.8%75.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 16 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • DC - Mainz (1.31) (votes: 3 - 60%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH 0 - Hamburg (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DNB - Mainz (1.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 24 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 16 - 66.7%). Hamburg (votes: 3 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 20.8%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 9).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2.
    • Mainz has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Hamburg is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Mainz could have a small edge in this match.
    • In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 1.3:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.8:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Hamburger SV were as follows:
    05.10.2025 Hamburger SV - Mainz 4:0
    Latest results of Mainz
    13.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 4:0
    07.02.2026 Mainz - Augsburg 2:0
    31.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2
    24.01.2026 Mainz - Wolfsburg 3:1
    17.01.2026 Köln - Mainz 2:1
    Latest results of Hamburger SV
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich24203188:236563
    2Dortmund24157251:252652
    3Hoffenheim24144649:311846
    4Stuttgart24144648:321646
    5RB Leipzig24135646:331344
    6Bayer Leverkusen23124744:291540
    7Eintracht Frankfurt2497848:49-134
    8Freiburg2496934:39-533
    9Augsburg24941130:41-1131
    10Union Berlin24771029:38-928
    11Hamburger SV2368926:34-826
    12B. Monchengladbach24671127:39-1225
    13FC Koln24661233:41-824
    14Mainz24581127:39-1223
    15St. Pauli24651323:40-1723
    16Werder Bremen24571225:44-1922
    17Wolfsburg24551433:53-2020
    18Heidenheim24351622:53-3114

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga