Hamburger SV vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Football German Bundesliga Hamburger SV - Mainz
Result
4:0
05/10/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 6
  • Referee: Hartmann R. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes World Football
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 3
australiaAustraliaAmazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
austriaAustriaDAZN, Sky Go Austria
belgiumBelgiumPlay Sports 1, Play Sports 2
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
bulgariaBulgariaNova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaDisney+
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Sports MAX 6
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 4
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
israelIsraelSport 4
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 259, Sky Sport MIX
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN SPORTS MAX
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 6
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 4
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 1
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 2
portugalPortugalDAZN 3, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaShahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 2
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaSport TV2, Voyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Sport 2
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.950.67
Ball Possession
35%65%
Total shots
1511
Shots on target
94
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
14
Passes
68% (195/285)83% (426/512)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
1.950.67
xG on target (xGOT)
3.021.23
Total shots
1511
Shots on target
94
Shots off target
54
Blocked Shots
13
Shots inside the Box
117
Shots outside the Box
44
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
14
Touches in opposition box
1621
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
33
Free Kicks
1314
Passes
68% (195/285)83% (426/512)
Long passes
39% (26/67)47% (25/53)
Passes in final third
42% (32/77)67% (101/150)
Crosses
20% (1/5)38% (8/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.371.06
Throw-ins
2532
Fouls
1413
Tackles
76% (16/21)60% (6/10)
Duels won
5954
Clearances
3531
Interceptions
1315
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
45
xGOT faced
1.233.02
Goals prevented
1.23-0.98

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 6', 1 - 0, Lokonga A. S. ⚽, Gocholeishvili G. (A),
  • 10', 2 - 0, Philippe R. ⚽, Konigsdorffer R. (A),
  • 17', Elfadli D. 🟨,
  • 42', Lee Jae-Sung 🟨,
  • 45+3', Kohr D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Mwene P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
  • 52', 3 - 0, Dompe J. ⚽, Capaldo N. (A),
  • 61', 4 - 0, Philippe R. ⚽, Remberg N. (A),
  • 61', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
  • 62', Kohr D. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
  • 62', Lokonga A. S. ↓, Meffert J. ↑,
  • 65', Remberg N. 🟨,
  • 65', Amiri N. 🟨,
  • 67', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
  • 67', Dompe J. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
  • 71', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
  • 82', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
  • 82', Philippe R. ↓, Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↑,
  • 82', Gocholeishvili G. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Hamburger SV
39.6%		Draw
28.1%		Mainz
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.9% 25.8% 40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2% 25.2% 41.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hamburger SV's performance.
  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mainz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-6.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hamburger SV that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+8.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mainz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Hamburger SV - Mainz Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.77 ↓
    (2.81)    		 4.18 ↑
    (3.7)    		 4.04 ↑
    (2.37)    		 -15.3%
    (4.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Hamburger SV - Mainz?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 9 - 34.6%). Mainz will win (votes: 10 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 26.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 19.8% – 57.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.
    • Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Mainz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Hamburg: Omari W. (Injury) Vieira F. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Muscle Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Zentner R. (Red Card)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Leitsch M. (Illness)
    • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 0.9:1).
    Latest results of Hamburger SV
    28.09.2025 Union Berlin - Hamburger SV 0:0 ✺
    20.09.2025 Hamburger SV - Heidenheim 2:1 ✺
    13.09.2025 Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV 5:0 ✺
    04.09.2025 Hamburger SV - Hannover 1:3
    29.08.2025 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 0:2 ✺
    Latest results of Mainz
    02.10.2025 Omonia - Mainz 0:1 ✺
    27.09.2025 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 0:2 ✺
    20.09.2025 Augsburg - Mainz 1:4 ✺
    13.09.2025 Mainz - RB Leipzig 0:1 ✺
    31.08.2025 Wolfsburg - Mainz 1:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich660025:32218
    2Dortmund642012:4814
    3RB Leipzig64118:8013
    4Stuttgart64028:6212
    5Bayer Leverkusen632112:8411
    6FC Koln631211:9210
    7Eintracht Frankfurt630317:1619
    8Freiburg62229:908
    9Hamburger SV62226:8-28
    10St. Pauli62138:9-17
    11Hoffenheim62139:12-37
    12Werder Bremen62139:14-57
    13Union Berlin62138:13-57
    14Augsburg620411:13-26
    15Wolfsburg61238:10-25
    16Mainz61145:10-54
    17B. Monchengladbach60335:12-73
    18Heidenheim61054:11-73

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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