Result
2:1
04/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 8
- Referee: Martens R. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.10 | 0.84 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (503/592) | 69% (211/308) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.10 | 0.84 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.93 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (503/592) | 69% (211/308) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (29/59) | 35% (25/71) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (166/213) | 47% (34/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 12% (4/33) | 0% (0/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.85 | 0.21 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (7/11) | 67% (6/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 32 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 44 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.93 | 1.34 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.07 | -0.66 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 11', 0 - 1, Yegoian I. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 59', Wlodarczyk S. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
- 59', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Mitrovic S. ↑,
- 65', Zagaritis V. 🟨,
- 71', Naujoks N. ↓, Nadje C. ↑,
- 72', Rivera M. ↓, Sejk V. ↑,
- 75', Nadje C. 🟨,
- 81', de Regt G. 🟨,
- 87', Linday M. ↓, Kersten S. ↑,
- 87', Zagaritis V. ↓, Petrov H. ↑,
- 88', Carlen A. 🟨,
- 89', 1 - 1, Vente D. (Pen),
- 90+4', 2 - 1, Kersten S. ⚽, Brouwers L. (A),
- 90+6', Braude O. ↓, Egbring M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Heerenveen
56% | Draw
23.1% | Excelsior
21% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
Heerenveen - Excelsior Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.71 ↓
(1.72) |
4.13 ↑
(3.95) |
4.55 ↑
(4.48) |
4.8%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Heerenveen - Excelsior?
Users Predictions:
Heerenveen will win
(20 of 22 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.9% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Heerenveen will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- In this match, Heerenveen is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Heerenveen: Bochniewicz P.
(Knee Injury)
Hopland N.
(Injury)
Smans L.
(Knee Injury)
van Axel Dongen A.
(Health problems)
- There will not play in Excelsior: Hartjes L.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:25. (average 1.4:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Heerenveen won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.5:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Heerenveen won against Excelsior?
Heerenveen has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against Heerenveen?
Excelsior has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Heerenveen - Excelsior were as follows:
19.01.2024
Excelsior
-
Heerenveen
3:0
23.09.2023
Heerenveen
-
Excelsior
0:3
13.05.2023
Heerenveen
-
Excelsior
0:0
22.12.2022
Heerenveen
-
Excelsior
1:0
05.11.2022
Excelsior
-
Heerenveen
0:1
Latest results of Heerenveen
Latest results of Excelsior
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25:6 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | PSV | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27:12 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:12 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17:12 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Groningen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14:13 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Nijmegen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Twente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:14 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18:11 | 7 | 13 |
| 9 | Sittard | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13:22 | -9 | 13 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18:18 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | G.A. Eagles | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15:16 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 8:17 | -9 | 9 |
| 14 | NAC Breda | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13:19 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:17 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12:18 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Volendam | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:16 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Heracles | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7:27 | -20 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
