Heerenveen vs Excelsior – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Dutch Eredivisie Heerenveen - Excelsior
Result
2:1
04/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Eredivisie - Round 8
  • Referee: Martens R. (Ned)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
netherlandsNetherlandsCanal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.100.84
Ball Possession
66%34%
Total shots
189
Shots on target
42
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
63
Passes
85% (503/592)69% (211/308)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
2.100.84
xG on target (xGOT)
1.340.93
Total shots
189
Shots on target
42
Shots off target
92
Blocked Shots
55
Shots inside the Box
85
Shots outside the Box
104
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
63
Touches in opposition box
2912
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
176
Passes
85% (503/592)69% (211/308)
Long passes
49% (29/59)35% (25/71)
Passes in final third
78% (166/213)47% (34/73)
Crosses
12% (4/33)0% (0/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.850.21
Throw-ins
1420
Fouls
617
Tackles
64% (7/11)67% (6/9)
Duels won
5432
Clearances
1644
Interceptions
108
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
0.931.34
Goals prevented
-0.07-0.66

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 11', 0 - 1, Yegoian I. ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 59', Wlodarczyk S. , van Duinen M. ,
  • 59', Sanches Fernandes D. , Mitrovic S. ,
  • 65', Zagaritis V. 🟨,
  • 71', Naujoks N. , Nadje C. ,
  • 72', Rivera M. , Sejk V. ,
  • 75', Nadje C. 🟨,
  • 81', de Regt G. 🟨,
  • 87', Linday M. , Kersten S. ,
  • 87', Zagaritis V. , Petrov H. ,
  • 88', Carlen A. 🟨,
  • 89', 1 - 1, Vente D. (Pen),
  • 90+4', 2 - 1, Kersten S. , Brouwers L. (A),
  • 90+6', Braude O. , Egbring M. ,

Chances of winning


Heerenveen
56%
Draw
23.1%
Excelsior
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
55% 23.9% 21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7% 23.6% 20.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)
  • Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
  • Heerenveen - Excelsior Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.71
    (1.72)
    4.13
    (3.95)
    4.55
    (4.48)
    4.8%
    (6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Heerenveen - Excelsior?
  • Users Predictions: Heerenveen will win (20 of 22 users predict this - 90.91%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 78.9%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Heerenveen will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 2.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • In this match, Heerenveen is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Heerenveen: Bochniewicz P. (Knee Injury) Hopland N. (Injury) Smans L. (Knee Injury) van Axel Dongen A. (Health problems)
    • There will not play in Excelsior: Hartjes L. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:25. (average 1.4:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Heerenveen won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.5:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Heerenveen - Excelsior were as follows:
    19.01.2024 Excelsior - Heerenveen 3:0
    23.09.2023 Heerenveen - Excelsior 0:3
    13.05.2023 Heerenveen - Excelsior 0:0
    22.12.2022 Heerenveen - Excelsior 1:0
    05.11.2022 Excelsior - Heerenveen 0:1
    Latest results of Heerenveen
    28.09.2025 Utrecht - Heerenveen 2:2
    21.09.2025 Heerenveen - NEC Nijmegen 3:2
    13.09.2025 Feyenoord - Heerenveen 1:0
    24.08.2025 Heerenveen - Twente 1:2
    Latest results of Excelsior
    27.09.2025 Excelsior - PSV Eindhoven 1:2
    20.09.2025 Volendam - Excelsior 1:2
    30.08.2025 Excelsior - Twente 1:0
    24.08.2025 Utrecht - Excelsior 4:1
    Dutch Eredivisie Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Feyenoord981025:61925
    2PSV971127:121522
    3AZ Alkmaar953119:12718
    4Ajax944117:12516
    5Groningen950414:13115
    6Nijmegen942325:17814
    7Twente942317:14314
    8Utrecht941418:11713
    9Sittard941413:13013
    10Sparta Rotterdam941413:22-913
    11Heerenveen1034318:18013
    12G.A. Eagles924315:16-110
    13Excelsior93068:17-99
    14NAC Breda1023513:19-69
    15Zwolle92259:17-88
    16Telstar921612:18-67
    17FC Volendam914410:16-67
    18Heracles91087:27-203

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
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          Eredivisie (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie