Excelsior vs Heerenveen – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

07/03/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Stadion Woudestein (Rotterdam).

Eredivisie - Round 26
Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)
Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
2.67	1.70
Ball possession
51%	49%
Total shots
21	10
Shots on target
5	5
Big chances
6	3
Corner kicks
6	8
Passes
74% (297/401)	76% (299/394)
Yellow cards
1	1
Expected goals (xG)
2.67	1.70
xG on target (xGOT)
1.60	2.15
Total shots
21	10
Shots on target
5	5
Shots off target
5	3
Blocked shots
11	2
Shots inside the box
18	7
Shots outside the box
3	3
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Big chances
6	3
Corner kicks
6	8
Touches in opposition box
48	20
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	1
Free kicks
7	4
Passes
74% (297/401)	76% (299/394)
Long passes
52% (34/66)	36% (23/64)
Passes in final third
59% (76/129)	58% (57/98)
Crosses
27% (7/26)	0% (0/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.67	1.34
Throw ins
30	16
Fouls
4	7
Tackles
50% (10/20)	46% (6/13)
Duels won
60	40
Clearances
17	49
Interceptions
8	14
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
3	4
xGOT faced
2.15	1.60
Goals prevented
0.15	0.60

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Brouwers L. ⚽, Nordas L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
65', Nordas L. ↓, Vente D. ↑,
67', 0 - 2, van Overeem J. ⚽,
72', Janssen S. ↓, Jonathans M. ↑,
72', Hartjes L. ↓, Bergraaf J. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Naujoks N. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Zagaritis V. ↓, Petrov H. ↑,
78', Petrov H. 🟨,
81', Jonathans M. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
86', Trenskow J. ↓, Hopland N. ↑,
89', Naujoks N. 🟨,
90', Yegoian I. ↓, Wlodarczyk S. ↑,

Chances of winning

Excelsior
33%

Draw
25.4%

Heerenveen
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

26.8%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

25.5%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Excelsior - Heerenveen Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.88)	3.75 ↑ (3.48)	2.29 (2.29)	5.1% (7.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Excelsior - Heerenveen?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Heerenveen will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Heerenveen will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 2.
Recent form of Excelsior has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Heerenveen has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Excelsior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Excelsior: Hansson E. (Thigh Injury) Nadje C. (Inactive) Raatsie C. (Shoulder Injury) Zagre A. (Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Heerenveen: Smans L. (Knee Injury)
In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 26:27. (average 1.4:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 2:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against Heerenveen?

Excelsior has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Heerenveen won against Excelsior?

Heerenveen has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Excelsior - Heerenveen were as follows:

04.10.2025 Heerenveen - Excelsior 2:1

19.01.2024 Excelsior - Heerenveen 3:0

23.09.2023 Heerenveen - Excelsior 0:3

13.05.2023 Heerenveen - Excelsior 0:0

22.12.2022 Heerenveen - Excelsior 1:0

Latest results of Excelsior

01.03.2026 Excelsior - Go Ahead Eagles 0:1 ✺

20.02.2026 Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior 2:1 ✺

14.02.2026 Excelsior - AZ Alkmaar 1:2 ✺

06.02.2026 NAC Breda - Excelsior 0:2 ✺

01.02.2026 Excelsior - Ajax 2:2 ✺

Latest results of Heerenveen

28.02.2026 Heerenveen - Sparta Rotterdam 2:1 ✺

21.02.2026 PSV Eindhoven - Heerenveen 3:1 ✺

15.02.2026 Heerenveen - Zwolle 4:2 ✺

11.02.2026 Go Ahead Eagles - Heerenveen 1:3 ✺

07.02.2026 Twente - Heerenveen 5:0 ✺

Dutch Eredivisie Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	PSV	28	22	2	4	78:37	41	68
2	Feyenoord	28	16	5	7	61:40	21	53
3	Nijmegen	28	14	8	6	69:47	22	50
4	Ajax	28	12	12	4	53:35	18	48
5	Twente	28	12	11	5	47:30	17	47
6	AZ Alkmaar	28	12	6	10	47:45	2	42
7	Utrecht	28	11	8	9	42:31	11	41
8	Heerenveen	28	11	8	9	49:46	3	41
9	Sparta Rotterdam	28	12	5	11	35:47	-12	41
10	Groningen	28	11	5	12	40:37	3	38
11	Sittard	28	10	5	13	43:52	-9	35
12	Zwolle	28	8	9	11	38:53	-15	33
13	G.A. Eagles	28	7	11	10	45:45	0	32
14	Telstar	28	6	9	13	38:46	-8	27
15	FC Volendam	28	7	6	15	30:48	-18	27
16	Excelsior	28	7	6	15	29:47	-18	27
17	NAC Breda	28	5	8	15	29:50	-21	23
18	Heracles	28	5	4	19	33:70	-37	19

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