Mainz vs Hoffenheim – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

21/11/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Mewa Arena (Mainz).

Bundesliga - Round 11
Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport MIX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-africa	SABC Plus, SABC Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.53	1.47
Ball Possession
46%	54%
Total shots
17	19
Shots on target
3	5
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
7	4
Passes
71% (268/380)	73% (343/471)
Yellow Cards
3	2
Red Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
2.53	1.47
xG on target (xGOT)
0.93	0.60
Total shots
17	19
Shots on target
3	5
Shots off target
7	7
Blocked Shots
7	7
Shots inside the Box
16	13
Shots outside the Box
1	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
7	4
Touches in opposition box
46	40
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
13	13
Passes
71% (268/380)	73% (343/471)
Long passes
36% (30/83)	40% (23/57)
Passes in final third
69% (74/107)	64% (111/173)
Crosses
25% (7/28)	12% (2/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.95	1.84
Throw-ins
25	21
Fouls
13	13
Tackles
50% (3/6)	67% (10/15)
Duels won
50	60
Clearances
39	31
Interceptions
10	10
Errors leading to shot
1	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	0
xGOT faced
0.60	0.93
Goals prevented
0.60	-0.07

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Hanche-Olsen A. (Own goal), Burger W. (A),
24', Widmer S. 🟨,
42', Bernardo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Maloney L. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
46', Widmer S. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
58', Kramaric A. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
67', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
68', Hranac R. 🟨,
76', 1 - 1, da Costa D. ⚽, Hollerbach B. (A),
77', Toure B. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
88', Kohr D. 🟥,
90', Asllani F. ↓, Bebou I. ↑,
90', Hollerbach B. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
90+5', Amiri N. 🟨,
90+6', Mwene P. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Mainz
37.8%

Draw
26.2%

Hoffenheim
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

25%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

26.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mainz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Mainz - Hoffenheim Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.3)	3.68 ↓ (3.8)	2.7 ↓ (2.83)	3.5% (5.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Mainz - Hoffenheim?

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 4 - 8.3%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 38 - 79.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 67.7% – 90.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH 0 - Mainz (1.87) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hoffenheim (1.50) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Hoffenheim (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Hoffenheim will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 27 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 4 - 14.8%). Hoffenheim (votes: 19 - 70.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 3.
Mainz is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Hoffenheim is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Hoffenheim: Machida K. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Mainz: Leitsch M. (Illness)
There are questionable in Hoffenheim: Hlozek A. (Foot Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 38:35. (average 1.9:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 2.2:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Hoffenheim?

Mainz has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Hoffenheim won against Mainz?

Hoffenheim has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Hoffenheim were as follows:

12.04.2025 Hoffenheim - Mainz 2:0

01.12.2024 Mainz - Hoffenheim 2:0

13.04.2024 Mainz - Hoffenheim 4:1

26.11.2023 Hoffenheim - Mainz 1:1

04.03.2023 Mainz - Hoffenheim 1:0

Latest results of Mainz

09.11.2025 Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz 1:0 ✺

06.11.2025 Mainz - Fiorentina 2:1 ✺

01.11.2025 Mainz - Werder Bremen 1:1 ✺

29.10.2025 Mainz - Stuttgart 0:2 ✺

26.10.2025 Stuttgart - Mainz 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Hoffenheim

08.11.2025 Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig 3:1 ✺

02.11.2025 Wolfsburg - Hoffenheim 2:3 ✺

28.10.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 3:2 ✺

25.10.2025 Hoffenheim - Heidenheim 3:1 ✺

19.10.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 0:3 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	24	20	3	1	88:23	65	63
2	Dortmund	24	15	7	2	51:25	26	52
3	Hoffenheim	24	14	4	6	49:31	18	46
4	Stuttgart	24	14	4	6	48:32	16	46
5	RB Leipzig	24	13	5	6	46:33	13	44
6	Bayer Leverkusen	23	12	4	7	44:29	15	40
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	24	9	7	8	48:49	-1	34
8	Freiburg	24	9	6	9	34:39	-5	33
9	Augsburg	24	9	4	11	30:41	-11	31
10	Union Berlin	24	7	7	10	29:38	-9	28
11	Hamburger SV	23	6	8	9	26:34	-8	26
12	B. Monchengladbach	24	6	7	11	27:39	-12	25
13	FC Koln	24	6	6	12	33:41	-8	24
14	Mainz	24	5	8	11	27:39	-12	23
15	St. Pauli	24	6	5	13	23:40	-17	23
16	Werder Bremen	24	5	7	12	25:44	-19	22
17	Wolfsburg	24	5	5	14	33:53	-20	20
18	Heidenheim	24	3	5	16	22:53	-31	14

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga