Hoffenheim vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Football German Bundesliga Hoffenheim - Mainz
Result
2:0
12/04/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 29
  • Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaNew World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 4
denmarkDenmarkSee, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 4
hungaryHungaryNet4+
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, RCTI+
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
polandPolandViaplay
portugalPortugalDAZN 6
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 3, SportKlub 4
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV3
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 2
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus
worldWorldDisney+, Onefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.721.15
Ball Possession
36%64%
Total shots
814
Shots on target
51
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
47
Passes
70% (192/275)83% (420/505)
Yellow Cards
42
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.721.15
xG on target (xGOT)
1.950.02
Total shots
814
Shots on target
51
Shots off target
19
Blocked Shots
24
Shots inside the Box
711
Shots outside the Box
13
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
47
Touches in opposition box
1929
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
1118
Passes
70% (192/275)83% (420/505)
Long passes
38% (23/60)40% (21/53)
Passes in final third
59% (46/78)70% (124/178)
Crosses
25% (5/20)28% (8/29)
Expected assists (xA)
0.881.44
Fouls
1811
Tackles
58% (11/19)85% (11/13)
Duels won
5251
Clearances Total
4032
Interceptions
1110
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.021.95
Goals prevented
0.02-0.05

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 4', 1 - 0, Kramaric A. ⚽, Toure B. (A),
  • 24', Arthur Chaves 🟨,
  • 32', 2 - 0, Kramaric A. ⚽, Toure B. (A),
  • 40', Mwene P. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
  • 45+2', Nsoki S. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 49', Nebel P. 🟨,
  • 66', Veratschnig N. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
  • 67', Toure B. ↓, Hlozek A. ↑,
  • 74', Bulter M. ↓, Jurasek D. ↑,
  • 75', Bischof T. 🟨,
  • 82', Kohr D. ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
  • 85', Tabakovic H. ↓, Yardimci E. ↑,
  • 85', Kramaric A. ↓, Geiger D. ↑,
  • 90+3', Baumann O. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Nebel P. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Hoffenheim
35.8%		Draw
27.6%		Mainz
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.1% 27.3% 39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5% 27.6% 39.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.5%)
    •

    Hoffenheim - Mainz Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.69 ↓
    (2.9)    		 3.48 ↓
    (3.52)    		 2.62 ↑
    (2.43)    		 4.2%
    (4.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    •
    What is the prediction for Hoffenheim - Mainz?
  • Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Hoffenheim will win (votes: 8 - 33.3%). Mainz will win (votes: 8 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 33.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 14.4% – 52.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Mainz (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Hoffenheim (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 14 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Hoffenheim won 0.
    • One and the other team get a very uncertain game.
    • In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.
    • There will not play in Hoffenheim: Bebou I. (Knee Injury) Kabak O. (Knee Injury) Lenz C. (Calf Injury) Ostigard L. (Red Card) Prass A. (Ankle Injury) Promel G. (Knee Injury) Samassekou D. (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Mainz: Amiri N. (Yellow Cards) Bell S. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Hoffenheim: Moerstedt M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Hoffenheim won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 34:41 (average 1.7:2.1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Hoffenheim won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 21:18 (average 2.1:1.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Hoffenheim - Mainz were as follows:
    01.12.2024 Mainz - Hoffenheim 2:0
    13.04.2024 Mainz - Hoffenheim 4:1
    26.11.2023 Hoffenheim - Mainz 1:1
    04.03.2023 Mainz - Hoffenheim 1:0
    14.01.2023 Hoffenheim - Mainz 2:2
    Latest results of Hoffenheim
    05.04.2025 RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim 3:1 ✺
    29.03.2025 Hoffenheim - Augsburg 1:1 ✺
    14.03.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 1:0 ✺
    09.03.2025 Hoffenheim - Heidenheim 1:1 ✺
    01.03.2025 Bochum - Hoffenheim 0:1 ✺
    Latest results of Mainz
    05.04.2025 Mainz - Holstein Kiel 1:1 ✺
    30.03.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 3:1 ✺
    15.03.2025 Mainz - Freiburg 2:2 ✺
    07.03.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz 1:3 ✺
    01.03.2025 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich11006:063
    2Union Berlin00000:000
    3Eintracht Frankfurt00000:000
    4Bayer Leverkusen00000:000
    5Werder Bremen00000:000
    6Hamburger SV00000:000
    7Wolfsburg00000:000
    8Dortmund00000:000
    9B. Monchengladbach00000:000
    10Hoffenheim00000:000
    11FC Koln00000:000
    12Mainz00000:000
    13Freiburg00000:000
    14St. Pauli00000:000
    15Augsburg00000:000
    16Stuttgart00000:000
    17Heidenheim00000:000
    18RB Leipzig10010:6-60

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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