Mainz vs Hoffenheim – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:1
21/11/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 11
  • Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaAzam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT, Claro TV+, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Xsports
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
hungaryHungaryArena 4
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
israelIsraelSport 1
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport MIX
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 5
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 5
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaRUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 1
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 2
portugalPortugalDAZN 1, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaShahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-africaSouth-africaSABC Plus, SABC Sport
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Premium
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomBBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.531.47
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
1719
Shots on target
35
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
74
Passes
71% (268/380)73% (343/471)
Yellow Cards
32
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
2.531.47
xG on target (xGOT)
0.930.60
Total shots
1719
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
77
Blocked Shots
77
Shots inside the Box
1613
Shots outside the Box
16
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
74
Touches in opposition box
4640
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
1313
Passes
71% (268/380)73% (343/471)
Long passes
36% (30/83)40% (23/57)
Passes in final third
69% (74/107)64% (111/173)
Crosses
25% (7/28)12% (2/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.951.84
Throw-ins
2521
Fouls
1313
Tackles
50% (3/6)67% (10/15)
Duels won
5060
Clearances
3931
Interceptions
1010
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
40
xGOT faced
0.600.93
Goals prevented
0.60-0.07

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 9', 0 - 1, Hanche-Olsen A. (Own goal), Burger W. (A),
  • 24', Widmer S. 🟨,
  • 42', Bernardo 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Maloney L. , da Costa D. ,
  • 46', Widmer S. , Kawasaki S. ,
  • 58', Kramaric A. , Lemperle T. ,
  • 67', Lee Jae-Sung , Weiper N. ,
  • 68', Hranac R. 🟨,
  • 76', 1 - 1, da Costa D. , Hollerbach B. (A),
  • 77', Toure B. , Moerstedt M. ,
  • 88', Kohr D. 🟥,
  • 90', Asllani F. , Bebou I. ,
  • 90', Hollerbach B. , Bell S. ,
  • 90+5', Amiri N. 🟨,
  • 90+6', Mwene P. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Mainz
37.8%
Draw
26.2%
Hoffenheim
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41.4% 25% 33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44% 26.6% 31.6%

Mainz - Hoffenheim Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)
2.54
(2.3)
3.68
(3.8)
2.7
(2.83)
3.5%
(5.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Mainz - Hoffenheim?
  • Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 4 - 8.3%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 38 - 79.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 12.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 67.7%90.7%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Mainz (1.87) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • DC - Hoffenheim (1.50) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Hoffenheim will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 3.
    • Mainz is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Hoffenheim is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Hoffenheim: Machida K. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Leitsch M. (Illness)
    • There are questionable in Hoffenheim: Hlozek A. (Foot Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 38:35. (average 1.9:1.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 2.2:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Hoffenheim were as follows:
    12.04.2025 Hoffenheim - Mainz 2:0
    01.12.2024 Mainz - Hoffenheim 2:0
    13.04.2024 Mainz - Hoffenheim 4:1
    26.11.2023 Hoffenheim - Mainz 1:1
    04.03.2023 Mainz - Hoffenheim 1:0
    Latest results of Mainz
    06.11.2025 Mainz - Fiorentina 2:1
    01.11.2025 Mainz - Werder Bremen 1:1
    29.10.2025 Mainz - Stuttgart 0:2
    26.10.2025 Stuttgart - Mainz 2:1
    Latest results of Hoffenheim
    08.11.2025 Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig 3:1
    02.11.2025 Wolfsburg - Hoffenheim 2:3
    28.10.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 3:2
    25.10.2025 Hoffenheim - Heidenheim 3:1
    19.10.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 0:3
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich13121049:94037
    2RB Leipzig1392228:131529
    3Dortmund1384123:111228
    4Bayer Leverkusen1372428:19923
    5Hoffenheim1372425:19623
    6Stuttgart1371521:22-122
    7Eintracht Frankfurt1363428:29-121
    8FC Koln1344522:21116
    9Freiburg1344520:22-216
    10B. Monchengladbach1344517:19-216
    11Werder Bremen1344518:24-616
    12Union Berlin1343616:22-615
    13Hamburger SV1343614:20-615
    14Augsburg1341817:27-1013
    15Wolfsburg1333717:23-612
    16Heidenheim1332812:28-1611
    17St. Pauli1322911:25-148
    18Mainz1313911:24-136

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga