IFK Mariehamn vs TPS – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Finnish Cup IFK Mariehamn - TPS
Result
3:2 penalties
28/05/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Suomen Cup - 1/16-finals

Match Stats

Yellow Cards
22

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 1', 1 - 0, Lundberg A. ,
  • 34', 2 - 0, Toivonen E. ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 46', Kujasalo N. , Heyden J. ,
  • 46', Nunez W. , Dahlgren H. ,
  • 46', Toivonen E. , Fonsell M. ,
  • 46', Bostrom A. , Sairinen A. ,
  • 46', Kauppila M. , Pohtio V. ,
  • 48', Patut E. 🟨,
  • 56', 2 - 1, Kawakita E. ,
  • 58', 2 - 2, Pippola T. ,
  • 61', Dahlfors O. 🟨,
  • 61', Louramo A. , Rajamaki N. ,
  • 67', Huttunen A. , Reid J. ,
  • 70', Pippola T. , Riski Ri. ,
  • 76', Patut E. , Muskwe A. ,
  • 77', Reid J. 🟨,
  • 83', Sihvonen A. 🟨,
  • Penalties (4 - 3)
  • 1, Riski Ri. (Pen),
  • 1, Adedoyin K. (Pen),
  • 2, Sihvonen A. (Pen),
  • 2, Fonsell M. (Pen),
  • 3, Kawakita E. (Pen),
  • 3, Muskwe A. (Pen),
  • 4, Ikonen L. (Pen),
  • 4, Peterson M. (Pen),
  • 5, Dahlfors O. (Pen),
  • 5, Reid J. (Pen),

Chances of winning


IFK Mariehamn
44.1%
Draw
24.8%
TPS
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.1% 25% 38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5% 25.3% 38.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • IFK Mariehamn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in IFK Mariehamn's performance.
  • TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and TPS might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for IFK Mariehamn than the current prediction. (-7.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with IFK Mariehamn that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+7.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that TPS could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • IFK Mariehamn - TPS Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.09
    (2.52)
    3.72
    (3.64)
    2.97
    (2.34)
    8.3%
    (9.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for IFK Mariehamn - TPS?
  • Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Mariehamn will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). TPS will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Mariehamn (votes: 1 - 33.3%). TPS (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mariehamn won 2.
    • In recent matches, Mariehamn has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • TPS is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • TPS may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mariehamn won 10 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 31:22. (average 1.6:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mariehamn won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:8. (average 1.6:0.8).
    Latest results of IFK Mariehamn
    24.05.2025 IFK Mariehamn - HJK 0:4
    17.05.2025 Oulu - IFK Mariehamn 0:1
    06.05.2025 LPS - IFK Mariehamn 0:1
    03.05.2025 Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn 2:0
    Latest results of TPS
    25.05.2025 Salon Palloilijat - TPS 1:2
    21.05.2025 TPS - Lahti 2:2
    18.05.2025 Klubi 04 - TPS 3:1
    14.05.2025 TPS - KaPa 4:2
    06.05.2025 Ilves 2 - TPS 1:3
    Draw
    2025

    1/64-finals
    1GillaValtti2 : 1
    2KelA AkatemiaKlubi 040 : 10
    3EsPa 2EsPa0 : 6
    4PonnistajatPPJ0 : 4
    5LPSKeski-Uusimaa2 : 1
    6GrIFKMariehamn1 : 2
    7MuSaIlves 23 : 5
    8Tampere UtdTPS0 : 3
    9PoPoEdustus IPS2 : 0
    10KuPS AkatemiaJJK Jyvaskyla4 : 3
    11Lahden ReipasLahti2 : 1
    12SohoMikkeli0 : 3
    13HJKBye
    15JaPS AkatemiaKiffen0 : 5
    16FuturaJaPS0 : 7
    17Santa ClausHercules1 : 4
    18PonPaAC Oulu1 : 3
    19VJSEPS2 : 0
    20Toukolan TerasNJS2 : 3
    21NuPSHJS0 : 2
    22JyTySalPa1 : 2
    23ToBKPoxyt1 : 2
    24TiPSPK-350 : 6
    25SJKBye
    27EPS 2Atlantis1 : 4
    28HPSKaPa0 : 4
    29VPVKPV Kokkola0 : 10
    30JBKRovaniemi0 : 1
    31MuurYJIPPO0 : 6
    32Lahti/69KTP1 : 5
    33Huima / UrhoLAUTP4 : 0
    34ToUHaka0 : 8
    35KeuPaUnion Plaani1 : 2
    36VaajakoskiPEPO4 : 2
    37Toolon TaistoJaPS 21 : 2
    38Gnistan/M35Gnistan0 : 5
    40ByeIlves
    41Polin PalloRiPS2 : 5
    42LTUJazz Pori0 : 3
    43OTPVPS 21 : 8
    44LapuaGBK Kokkola2 : 5
    45KangasalaSalPa 20 : 2
    46Tampere Utd 3TPV0 : 7
    48ByeKuPS
    49NiemUMyPa1 : 0
    50KyparamakiHAPK0 : 2
    51KiistoOLS Oulu0 : 2
    52SJK U21SJK Akatemia0 : 3
    53Honka 3EBK1 : 2
    54KontuHonka0 : 9
    55TuiskuEkenas0 : 6
    56LastenInter Turku0 : 4
    57VIFKJaro2 : 3
    58HauPaKajaanin Haka4 : 1
    59VJS 2PuiU1 : 3
    60HIFKAtlantis 23 : 2
    61AboNoPS2 : 0
    62MaPSP-Iirot Rauma1 : 2
    63HarmaTampere Utd 21 : 3
    64TP-TVPS0 : 5

    1/32-finals
    1GillaKlubi 040 : 6
    2EsPaPPJ1 : 0
    3LPSMariehamn0 : 1
    4Ilves 2TPS1 : 3
    5PoPoKuPS Akatemia2 : 3
    6Lahden ReipasMikkeli0 : 1
    7HJKBye
    8KiffenJaPS0 : 6
    9HerculesAC Oulu1 : 5
    10VJSNJS2 : 0
    11HJSSalPa2 : 1
    12PoxytPK-350 : 3
    13SJKBye
    14AtlantisKaPa2 : 1
    15KPV KokkolaRovaniemi2 : 1
    16JIPPOKTP1 : 2
    17Huima / UrhoHaka0 : 4
    18Union PlaaniVaajakoski2 : 0
    19JaPS 2Gnistan0 : 3
    20ByeIlves
    21RiPSJazz Pori0 : 2
    22VPS 2GBK Kokkola0 : 1
    23SalPa 2TPV0 : 4
    24ByeKuPS
    25NiemUHAPK1 : 2
    26OLS OuluSJK Akatemia4 : 3
    27EBKHonka1 : 3
    28EkenasInter Turku2 : 1
    29JaroHauPa7 : 0
    30PuiUHIFK0 : 2
    31AboP-Iirot Rauma4 : 6
    32Tampere Utd 2VPS1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Klubi 04EsPa8 : 2
    2MariehamnTPS3 : 2
    3KuPS AkatemiaMikkeli1 : 4
    4HJKJaPS2 : 1
    5AC OuluVJS2 : 1
    6HJSPK-350 : 1
    7SJKAtlantis3 : 2
    8KPV KokkolaKTP2 : 0
    9HakaUnion Plaani6 : 0
    10GnistanIlves3 : 0
    11Jazz PoriGBK Kokkola3 : 2
    12TPVKuPS0 : 2
    13HAPKOLS Oulu1 : 4
    14HonkaEkenas0 : 1
    15JaroHIFK5 : 0
    16P-Iirot RaumaVPS1 : 5

    1/8-finals
    1Klubi 04Mariehamn4 : 3
    2MikkeliHJK0 : 1
    3AC OuluPK-352 : 1
    4SJKKPV Kokkola7 : 0
    5HakaGnistan3 : 2
    6Jazz PoriKuPS2 : 6
    7OLS OuluEkenas0 : 1
    8JaroVPS3 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Klubi 04HJK0 : 4
    2AC OuluSJK2 : 0
    3HakaKuPS1 : 2
    4EkenasJaro2 : 4

    Semi-finals
    1HJKAC Oulu
    2KuPSJaro

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2