Result
3:1
10/03/2026 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.79 | 1.48 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 31 | 13 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 17 | 8 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 9.68% (3/31) | 7.69% (1/13) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 12 | 28 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 92.31% (12/13) | 93.33% (28/30) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 2 | 16 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/8) | 0% (0/4) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (4/4) | 100% (8/8) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 23 | 24 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 48.94 | 51.06 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 0)
- 11:04, (2 min),
- 2nd Period (1 - 1)
- 02:18, Huttunen H. (2 min),
- 07:54, 0 - 1, Eronen E. (G), Paivarinta S. (A), Kiiskinen J. (A2)
- 08:32, Latvala O. (2 min),
- 08:32, Wright C. (2 min),
- 09:56, 1 - 1, Kos O. (G), Quenneville P. (A), Borg E. (A2)
- 10:23, Pyke G. (2 min),
- 14:15, Kiiskinen J. (Penalty Shot),
- 15:17, Pyke G. (2 min),
- 18:46, Bjorkqvist K. (5 min),
- 18:46, Heikkinen I. (2 min),
- 18:46, Nikkila P. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (2 - 0)
- 11:10, 2 - 1, Borg E. (G), Kos O. (A), Torok M. (A2)
- 14:40, Wright C. (2 min),
- 19:34, 3 - 1, Henman L. (G),
Chances of winning
Ilves
53.5% | Draw
23.4% | HPK
23.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-0.8%)
Ilves - HPK Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.78 ↑
(1.74) |
4.05 ↑
(4.01) |
4.04 ↓
(4.05) |
5.8%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.00
What is the prediction for Ilves - HPK?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 4.
- Recent performances by Ilves have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- HPK is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Recently, Ilves has had a series of away games.
- Recently, HPK has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Ilves is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 63:51. (average 3.2:2.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:28. (average 3:2.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against HPK?
Ilves has won 10 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has HPK won against Ilves?
HPK has won 5 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - HPK were as follows:
26.12.2025
HPK
-
Ilves
3:8
04.12.2025
Ilves
-
HPK
3:2
15.11.2025
HPK
-
Ilves
2:3
27.02.2025
Ilves
-
HPK
0:4
14.02.2025
HPK
-
Ilves
2:3
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
