Result
3:8
26/12/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.85 | 4.46 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 25 | 29 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 12% (3/25) | 27.59% (8/29) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 21 | 22 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 72.41% (21/29) | 88% (22/25) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 20% (1/5) | 20% (1/5) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 80% (4/5) | 80% (4/5) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 26 | 28 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 48.15 | 51.85 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 1)
- 04:00, Kucerik R. (2 min),
- 14:37, 0 - 1, Palola O. (G), Engberg T. (A),
- 15:33, Paivarinta S. (Penalty Shot),
- 19:55, Eronen E. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (1 - 3)
- 00:57, 0 - 2, Jasek L. (G), Henman L. (A), Johansson S. (A2)
- 03:24, 0 - 3, Ratinen S. (G), Jasek L. (A), Torok M. (A2)
- 04:04, Aaltonen S. (2 min),
- 06:12, 0 - 4, Mantykivi M. (G), Henman L. (A), Looke J. (A2)
- 06:12, Sinclair M. ↓, Karhunen T. ↑,
- 13:25, 1 - 4, Wright C. (G),
- 14:37, Ratinen S. (2 min),
- 18:47, Wright C. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (2 - 4)
- 01:42, Wright C. (2 min),
- 02:08, 1 - 5, Svejkovsky L. (G), Torok M. (A), Ratinen S. (A2)
- 02:18, 1 - 6, Bjorkqvist K. (G), Johansson S. (A), Latvala O. (A2)
- 10:10, Svejkovsky L. (2 min),
- 11:14, Wright C. (2 min),
- 13:19, 1 - 7, Johansson S. (G), Henman L. (A), Jasek L. (A2)
- 13:40, 2 - 7, Loponen M. (G),
- 14:33, Parikka J. (2 min),
- 16:14, 2 - 8, Bjorkqvist K. (G), Nattinen J. (A),
- 17:00, Nyberg J. (2 min),
- 17:11, 3 - 8, Kopiloff O. (G), Antonen J. (A), Jokirinne V. (A2)
Chances of winning
HPK
23.7% | Draw
22% | Ilves
54.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
HPK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that HPK's form might have worsened.Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK than the current prediction. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
HPK - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.07 ↑
(3.21) |
4.21 ↓
(4.29) |
1.72 ↓
(1.93) |
6.6%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.00
What is the prediction for HPK - Ilves?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Ilves (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:3.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 2.
- Recent form of HPK has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Ilves is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Ilves will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- We predict that Ilves will win today's game, with odds of 1.86.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 52:56. (average 2.6:2.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:26. (average 2.4:2.6).
How many head-to-head matches has HPK won against Ilves?
HPK has won 5 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against HPK?
Ilves has won 9 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between HPK - Ilves were as follows:
04.12.2025
Ilves
-
HPK
3:2
15.11.2025
HPK
-
Ilves
2:3
27.02.2025
Ilves
-
HPK
0:4
14.02.2025
HPK
-
Ilves
2:3
22.10.2024
Ilves
-
HPK
1:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
