Universidad Católica del Ecuador vs Independiente del Valle

01/05/2026 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).

Liga Pro - Round 12
Referee: Aragon A. (Ecu)
Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.14	0.35
Ball possession
62%	38%
Total shots
17	7
Shots on target
6	3
Big chances
0	1
Corner kicks
11	3
Passes
84% (391/467)	75% (215/286)
Yellow cards
1	8
Expected goals (xG)
1.14	0.35
xG on target (xGOT)
0.77	0.79
Total shots
17	7
Shots on target
6	3
Shots off target
8	3
Blocked shots
3	1
Shots inside the box
11	4
Shots outside the box
6	3
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Headed goals
1	0
Big chances
0	1
Corner kicks
11	3
Touches in opposition box
24	12
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
0	1
Free kicks
10	10
Passes
84% (391/467)	75% (215/286)
Long passes
54% (28/52)	47% (32/68)
Passes in final third
65% (80/124)	55% (50/91)
Crosses
38% (10/26)	23% (3/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.01	0.19
Throw ins
20	8
Fouls
10	10
Tackles
100% (5/5)	71% (10/14)
Duels won
29	40
Clearances
8	34
Interceptions
3	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper saves
1	4
xGOT faced
0.79	0.77
Goals prevented
-1.21	-1.23

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 3)
3', 0 - 1, Pata E. ⚽,
8', 0 - 2, Anangono G. (Own goal),
16', 0 - 3, Pata E. ⚽, Sornoza J. (A),
26', Viacava J. 🟨,
35', 1 - 3, Clavijo E. ⚽, Diaz M. (A),
44', Mendez J. 🟨,
45+7', Fajardo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sornoza J. ↓, Briones R. ↑,
46', Reasco D. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
46', Velasco A. ↓, Carabajal M. ↑,
46', Valencia E. ↓, Alonso M. ↑,
51', Briones R. 🟨,
53', 2 - 3, Sevillano M. ⚽, Diaz M. (A),
64', Guagua D. 🟨,
72', Carabajal M. 🟨,
72', Gonzalez C. 🟨,
73', Clavijo E. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
76', Pata E. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
81', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
84', Cacciabue J. ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
84', Anangono G. ↓, Nazareno D. ↑,
84', Londono A. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
84', Guagua D. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
86', Diaz M. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
38%

Draw
28.3%

Independiente del Valle
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

28.1%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

27.6%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.4)	3.28 ↓ (3.32)	2.75 ↓ (2.83)	7.6% (7.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 2.
Now, both teams are in good form.
Ind del Valle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.5:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:14. (average 1.1:2).

How many head-to-head matches has Universidad Católica del Ecuador won against Independiente del Valle?

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has won 4 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against Universidad Católica del Ecuador?

Independiente del Valle has won 5 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle were as follows:

14.12.2025 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle 0:1

08.11.2025 Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 0:2

13.10.2025 Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 1:2

29.06.2025 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle 0:3

02.03.2025 Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 1:1

Latest results of Universidad Católica del Ecuador

27.04.2026 Manta - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 1:0 ✺

23.04.2026 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Macará 4:0 ✺

18.04.2026 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja 2:0 ✺

12.04.2026 Técnico Universitario - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 0:2 ✺

08.04.2026 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Independiente del Valle

28.04.2026 Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle 2:3 ✺

25.04.2026 Independiente del Valle - Leones del Norte 2:1 ✺

22.04.2026 Delfín - Independiente del Valle 0:1 ✺

19.04.2026 Independiente del Valle - LDU Quito 0:2 ✺

15.04.2026 Independiente del Valle - Universidad Central 3:1 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	12	9	1	2	22:13	9	28
2	U. Catolica	12	6	4	2	21:8	13	22
3	Aucas	12	5	4	3	14:11	3	19
4	Barcelona SC	11	5	4	2	12:9	3	19
5	Guayaquil City	12	5	3	4	10:11	-1	18
6	LDU Quito	12	5	2	5	10:10	0	17
7	Dep. Cuenca	12	5	2	5	14:16	-2	17
8	Mushuc Runa	11	4	4	3	15:12	3	16
9	Macara	11	4	4	3	12:10	2	16
10	Emelec	11	4	2	5	9:13	-4	14
11	Orense	11	3	4	4	15:16	-1	13
12	Libertad	12	3	4	5	11:16	-5	13
13	Delfin	11	3	3	5	4:6	-2	12
14	Tecnico U	12	3	2	7	9:13	-4	11
15	Leones del Norte	11	2	4	5	8:12	-4	10
16	Manta	11	2	1	8	3:13	-10	7

      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
      Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

Universidad Católica del Ecuador vs Independiente del Valle – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV