Result
 
                    0:3 penalties
                
               
                
                                 
                    
                    
                        24/09/2025 at  20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
                    
 
                 
                
                
				
				                
				
				                
                 
                 
                     
                     
                                                -  Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
- Referee: Ramirez M. (Arg)
- Where to Watch on TV: 
                    
|  |  | 
|---|
|  Argentina | Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN 2 | 
|  Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD | 
|  Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 | 
|  Bolivia | Tigo Sports 2, Tigo Sports App | 
|  Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 | 
|  Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping | 
|  Canada | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol | 
|  Chile | DirecTV Sports | 
|  Colombia | ESPN 2 | 
|  Croatia | Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go | 
|  Ecuador | DirecTV Sports | 
|  Indonesia | Mola TV | 
|  Israel | Sport 3 | 
|  Italy | Como TV | 
|  Kosovo | Arena Premium 3 | 
|  Malaysia | Mola | 
|  New-zealand | beIN Connect | 
|  Paraguay | Tigo Sports+ | 
|  Portugal | Sport TV3 | 
|  Russia | Okko Sport | 
|  Serbia | Arena Premium 3 | 
|  South-america | DGO Latin America, ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America | 
|  Spain | LaLiga+ | 
|  Turkey | S Sport+ | 
|  Uruguay | DSports 1 | 
|  Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV | 
|  Venezuela | Inter | 
 
                     
                  
				
				            
            
            
                            				
                
                
				
				                 
                    
                        Match Stats
                    
                    
                        
                                
|  |  | 
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) | 
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.54 | 
| Ball Possession | 
|---|
| 43% | 57% | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 11 | 14 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 2 | 4 | 
| Big Chances | 
|---|
| 2 | 2 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 1 | 4 | 
| Passes | 
|---|
| 81% (245/302) | 83% (330/396) | 
| Yellow Cards | 
|---|
| 2 | 2 | 
| Expected Goals (xG) | 
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.54 | 
| xG on target (xGOT) | 
|---|
| 0.22 | 1.56 | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 11 | 14 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 2 | 4 | 
| Shots off target | 
|---|
| 6 | 8 | 
| Blocked Shots | 
|---|
| 3 | 2 | 
| Shots inside the Box | 
|---|
| 5 | 8 | 
| Shots outside the Box | 
|---|
| 6 | 6 | 
| Hit the Woodwork | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Headed Goals | 
|---|
| 0 | 2 | 
| Big Chances | 
|---|
| 2 | 2 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 1 | 4 | 
| Touches in opposition box | 
|---|
| 15 | 21 | 
| Accurate through passes | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Offsides | 
|---|
| 4 | 2 | 
| Free Kicks | 
|---|
| 8 | 12 | 
| Passes | 
|---|
| 81% (245/302) | 83% (330/396) | 
| Long passes | 
|---|
| 42% (20/48) | 44% (20/45) | 
| Passes in final third | 
|---|
| 60% (39/65) | 70% (74/106) | 
| Crosses | 
|---|
| 18% (2/11) | 16% (3/19) | 
| Expected assists (xA) | 
|---|
| 0.66 | 1.46 | 
| Throw-ins | 
|---|
| 18 | 14 | 
| Fouls | 
|---|
| 12 | 8 | 
| Tackles | 
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 62% (8/13) | 
| Duels won | 
|---|
| 31 | 43 | 
| Clearances | 
|---|
| 14 | 17 | 
| Interceptions | 
|---|
| 9 | 10 | 
| Errors leading to shot | 
|---|
| 0 | 1 | 
| Errors leading to goal | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Goalkeeper Saves | 
|---|
| 2 | 2 | 
| xGOT faced | 
|---|
| 1.56 | 0.22 | 
| Goals prevented | 
|---|
| -0.44 | 0.22 | 
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Key Moments
                    
                    
					    Here there are
                                
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 27', 0 - 1, Hoyos M. ⚽, Sornoza J. (A), 
- 45+2', Moreno D. 🟨, 
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 51', 0 - 2, Hoyos M. ⚽, Sornoza J. (A), 
- 55', Tamayo K. ↓, Palacios L. ↑, 
- 58', Sanchez L. ↓, Beltran E. ↑, 
- 58', Zuleta M. ↓, Gomez P. ↑, 
- 72', Alcivar J. ↓, Mendez J. ↑, 
- 74', Cuesta Santos J. D. 🟨, 
- 79', Guagua D. ↓, Cazares ↑, 
- 80', Cazares 🟨, 
- 86', Hoyos M. ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑, 
- 86', Sornoza J. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑, 
- 86', Cortez G. ↓, Loor L. ↑, 
- 90', Spinelli C. 🟨, 
- Penalties (4 - 5)
- 1, Moreno D. (Pen), 
- 1, Cazares (Pen), 
- 2, Mejia R. (Pen), 
- 2, Mendez J. (Pen), 
- 3, Gomez P. (Pen), 
- 3, Ibarra R. (Pen), 
- 4, Barrios M. (Pen), 
- 4, Schunke R. (Pen), 
- 5, Garcia M. (Pen), 
- 5, Spinelli C. (Pen), 
- 6, Aguirre J. (Pen), 
- 6, Loor L. (Pen), 
  
                 
				 				 
				 				 
				 
				 				 
				 
				 
				
				                 
                    
                        Chances of winning
                    
                    
                        
                                
 | Once Caldas 32.8%
 | Draw 29.1%
 | Independiente del Valle 38.1%
 | 
Initial Probability
 (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Once Caldas - Independiente del Valle Odds
                    
                    
                        
                                
            
            
            
			
			
			   |  | 1 | X | 2 | Marga |  | 
			
			
			   | Avarage Now (Initially)
 | 2.87 ↑ (2.53)
 | 3.25 ↑ (3.18)
 | 2.47 ↓ (2.8)
 | 6.1% (6.7%)
 |  | 
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  
                 
				 				 
				 
				 
            
                                 
                    
                        What is the prediction for Once Caldas - Independiente del Valle?
                    
                    
                        
						        
                                            
                                            Users Predictions: 
                                            
                                            
                                            5 users predict this event. Once Caldas will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Ind del Valle will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Once Caldas (votes: 1 - 100%).                                 The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
                        
						
                    
 
                 
                                
                
                                  
                    
                     Preview Facts
                    
                    
                        
                             - 1st leg result: 2-0. 2nd leg.
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Once Caldas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.                        
  
                 
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Once Caldas won against Independiente del Valle?
                    
                    
                        
                            Once Caldas has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against Once Caldas?
                    
                    
                        
                             Independiente del Valle has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                
                                 
                    
                        What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
                    
                    
                    
                        
                            The latest head-to-head matches between Once Caldas - Independiente del Valle were as follows:
                                                        
                                17.09.2025 
                                Independiente del Valle 
                                - 
                                Once Caldas 
                                0:2
                            
        
                                                     
                      
                    
                 
                
                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of Once Caldas                    
                    
                    
                 
                                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of Independiente del Valle