Independiente Medellín vs Fortaleza CEIF – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

17/10/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín).

Primera A - Clausura - Round 16
Referee: Trujillo F. (Col)
Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.50	0.54
Ball Possession
57%	43%
Total shots
17	15
Shots on target
10	4
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
2	4
Passes
85% (435/509)	82% (318/386)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.50	0.54
xG on target (xGOT)
2.11	0.63
Total shots
17	15
Shots on target
10	4
Shots off target
3	7
Blocked Shots
4	4
Shots inside the Box
9	4
Shots outside the Box
8	11
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
2	4
Touches in opposition box
24	12
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	3
Free Kicks
8	17
Passes
85% (435/509)	82% (318/386)
Long passes
54% (30/56)	50% (29/58)
Passes in final third
69% (94/136)	61% (47/77)
Crosses
10% (1/10)	0% (0/7)
Expected assists (xA)
0.56	0.68
Throw-ins
17	18
Fouls
17	8
Tackles
74% (14/19)	78% (7/9)
Duels won
42	42
Clearances
23	21
Interceptions
5	9
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	8
xGOT faced
0.63	2.11
Goals prevented
-0.37	-0.89

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Arroyo A. ⚽, Ricaurte A. (A),
17', Salas J. 🟨,
24', 1 - 1, Fydriszewski F. ⚽, Leon B. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', Chaverra F. 🟨,
55', 2 - 1, Leon B. ⚽, Loboa H. (A),
63', 3 - 1, Chaverra F. ⚽, Leon B. (A),
66', Velasquez J. ↓, Cuero S. ↑,
66', Escorcia L. ↓, Mosquera C. ↑,
77', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
77', Salas J. ↓, Cordoba S. ↑,
81', Marulanda J. 🟨,
84', Leon B. ↓, Berrio L. ↑,
84', Perlaza B. ↓, Serna A. ↑,
86', Ricaurte A. ↓, Pajaro R. ↑,
88', Berrio L. 🟨,
90+2', Barrera J. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,

Chances of winning

Independiente Medellín
57.8%

Draw
24.4%

Fortaleza CEIF
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

21.5%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.4%

23%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.

Fortaleza CEIF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Medellín, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.44)	3.9 ↓ (4.35)	5.37 ↓ (6.79)	2.1% (7.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF?

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).
Ind Medellín has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Fortaleza is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Recently, Ind Medellín has had a series of away games.
In this match, Ind Medellín is seen as the favorite.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Fortaleza CEIF?

Independiente Medellín has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza CEIF won against Independiente Medellín?

Fortaleza CEIF has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF were as follows:

03.09.2025 Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF 2:1

27.08.2025 Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Medellín 0:0

27.04.2025 Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Medellín 0:0

26.08.2024 Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Medellín 2:2

17.02.2024 Independiente Medellín - Fortaleza CEIF 2:2

Latest results of Independiente Medellín

13.10.2025 Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín 1:5 ✺

08.10.2025 Rionegro Águilas - Independiente Medellín 2:1 ✺

01.10.2025 Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín 0:3 ✺

27.09.2025 Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín 2:3 ✺

24.09.2025 Independiente Medellín - Independiente Santa Fe 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Fortaleza CEIF

13.10.2025 Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó 1:0 ✺

04.10.2025 Llaneros SA - Fortaleza CEIF 0:0 ✺

26.09.2025 Fortaleza CEIF - Atlético Bucaramanga 2:1 ✺

21.09.2025 Millonarios - Fortaleza CEIF 3:2 ✺

13.09.2025 Fortaleza CEIF - América de Cali 1:0 ✺

Colombian Primera A Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Atl. Nacional	11	8	0	3	23:9	14	24
2	Dep. Pasto	12	7	3	2	18:14	4	24
3	Once Caldas	12	6	5	1	23:13	10	23
4	Inter Bogotu00e1	12	5	6	1	17:15	2	21
5	Bucaramanga	11	4	7	0	16:6	10	19
6	Junior	11	6	1	4	17:16	1	19
7	America De Cali	10	5	2	3	15:8	7	17
8	Millonarios	12	5	2	5	19:13	6	17
9	Deportes Tolima	10	4	4	2	12:8	4	16
10	Dep. Cali	12	4	4	4	14:11	3	16
11	Llaneros	12	3	6	3	14:13	1	15
12	Aguilas	10	4	3	3	11:10	1	15
13	Fortaleza	11	3	5	3	13:16	-3	14
14	Santa Fe	11	2	6	3	12:14	-2	12
15	Ind. Medellin	10	2	4	4	13:15	-2	10
16	Jaguares de Cordoba	11	3	1	7	10:21	-11	10
17	Cucuta	12	1	4	7	16:25	-9	7
18	Chico	11	2	1	8	9:19	-10	7
19	Pereira	11	0	5	6	10:22	-12	5
20	Alianza	10	0	5	5	5:19	-14	5

Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )