Result
2:1
16/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Torneo Betano - Clausura - Round 5
- Referee: Rey Hilfer L. (Arg)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | ESPN Premium |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 1 |
 China | K-Ball |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | Como TV, Sportitalia, Sportitalia Plus |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 2 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 2 |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 1 |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
 World | TyC Sports Internacional |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.58 | 0.99 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (276/358) | 71% (209/295) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.58 | 0.99 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.78 | 0.74 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (276/358) | 71% (209/295) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (26/50) | 42% (28/66) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (75/109) | 50% (33/66) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (5/28) | 50% (2/4) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.26 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (18/21) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 16 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.74 | 1.78 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.26 | -0.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 32', Lomonaco K. 🟥,
- 35', 1 - 0, Godoy D. (Pen),
- 36', Tarzia D. ↓, Paredes F. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 49', Andrada T. 🟨,
- 52', Galvan T. 🟨,
- 54', Marcone I. 🟨,
- 55', Andrada T. ↓, Baeza C. ↑,
- 60', Pussetto I. 🟨,
- 62', Pussetto I. ↓, Avalos G. ↑,
- 62', Abaldo M. ↓, Mazzantti W. ↑,
- 62', Marcone I. ↓, Loyola F. ↑,
- 68', Galvan T. ↓, Braian Romero ↑,
- 68', Godoy D. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
- 74', Quiros A. 🟨,
- 74', 1 - 1, Loyola F. (Pen),
- 77', Loyola F. 🟨,
- 82', de Irastorza J. 🟨,
- 84', 2 - 1, Braian Romero (Pen),
- 85', Millan L. ↓, Montiel S. ↑,
- 86', Machuca I. ↓, Pellegrini M. ↑,
- 86', Pizzini F. ↓, Roldan L. ↑,
- 89', Mazzantti W. 🟨,
- 90+1', Lagos A. 🟨,
- 90+5', Montiel S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Vélez Sársfield
33.5% | Draw
33.5% | Independiente
33% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
Vélez Sársfield - Independiente Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.81 ↑
(2.5) |
2.83 ↓
(3) |
2.84 ↓
(3.1) |
6.1%
(5.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for Vélez Sársfield - Independiente?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Independiente will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Vélez (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Vélez (votes: 7 - 100%).
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 1.
- In recent matches, Vélez has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Independiente is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Independiente may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 0.8:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vélez won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.7:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Vélez Sársfield won against Independiente?
Vélez Sársfield has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente won against Vélez Sársfield?
Independiente has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vélez Sársfield - Independiente were as follows:
12.02.2025
Independiente
-
Vélez Sársfield
3:0
27.09.2024
Vélez Sársfield
-
Independiente
1:0
26.05.2024
Independiente
-
Vélez Sársfield
1:1
30.01.2024
Vélez Sársfield
-
Independiente
0:1
27.08.2023
Independiente
-
Vélez Sársfield
2:1
Latest results of Vélez Sársfield
Latest results of Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
ClausuraGroup A | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Union de Santa Fe | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Barracas Central | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:8 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Central Cordoba | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:6 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Banfield | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9:3 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Defensa y Justicia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8:5 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Estudiantes L.P | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Huracan | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Newells Old Boys | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Belgrano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6:7 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Argentinos Jrs | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:8 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Tigre | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:7 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Ind. Rivadavia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Racing Club | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8:12 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Aldosivi | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1:10 | -9 | 3 |
Group B | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | River Plate | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:5 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dep. Riestra | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11:5 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9:3 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Lanus | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7:7 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | San Lorenzo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Rosario Central | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Gimnasia L.P | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:8 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Atl. Tucuman | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Sarmiento Junin | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:9 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | San Martin S.J | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5:7 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Instituto | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Godoy Cruz | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Platense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:8 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Talleres Cordoba | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3:8 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Independiente | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4:8 | -4 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
