Vélez Sársfield vs Independiente – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Argentinian Liga Profesional Vélez Sársfield - Independiente
Result
2:1
16/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Torneo Betano - Clausura - Round 5
  • Referee: Rey Hilfer L. (Arg)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaESPN Premium
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 1
chinaChinaK-Ball
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
israelIsraelSport 4
italyItalyComo TV, Sportitalia, Sportitalia Plus
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 2
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalSport TV2
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1, Arena Premium 2
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 1
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomPremier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
usaUsaFanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaInter
worldWorldTyC Sports Internacional

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.580.99
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
129
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
100
Passes
77% (276/358)71% (209/295)
Yellow Cards
46
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.580.99
xG on target (xGOT)
1.780.74
Total shots
129
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
55
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
85
Shots outside the Box
44
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
100
Touches in opposition box
2010
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1217
Passes
77% (276/358)71% (209/295)
Long passes
52% (26/50)42% (28/66)
Passes in final third
69% (75/109)50% (33/66)
Crosses
18% (5/28)50% (2/4)
Expected assists (xA)
0.980.26
Throw-ins
2022
Fouls
1712
Tackles
86% (18/21)50% (6/12)
Duels won
5047
Clearances
1222
Interceptions
816
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
21
xGOT faced
0.741.78
Goals prevented
-0.26-0.22

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 32', Lomonaco K. 🟥,
  • 35', 1 - 0, Godoy D. (Pen),
  • 36', Tarzia D. , Paredes F. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 49', Andrada T. 🟨,
  • 52', Galvan T. 🟨,
  • 54', Marcone I. 🟨,
  • 55', Andrada T. , Baeza C. ,
  • 60', Pussetto I. 🟨,
  • 62', Pussetto I. , Avalos G. ,
  • 62', Abaldo M. , Mazzantti W. ,
  • 62', Marcone I. , Loyola F. ,
  • 68', Galvan T. , Braian Romero ,
  • 68', Godoy D. , Carrizo M. ,
  • 74', Quiros A. 🟨,
  • 74', 1 - 1, Loyola F. (Pen),
  • 77', Loyola F. 🟨,
  • 82', de Irastorza J. 🟨,
  • 84', 2 - 1, Braian Romero (Pen),
  • 85', Millan L. , Montiel S. ,
  • 86', Machuca I. , Pellegrini M. ,
  • 86', Pizzini F. , Roldan L. ,
  • 89', Mazzantti W. 🟨,
  • 90+1', Lagos A. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Montiel S. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Vélez Sársfield
33.5%
Draw
33.5%
Independiente
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
37.9% 31.6% 30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8% 31.7% 30.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
  • Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
  • Vélez Sársfield - Independiente Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.81
    (2.5)
    2.83
    (3)
    2.84
    (3.1)
    6.1%
    (5.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Vélez Sársfield - Independiente?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Independiente will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19%81%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Vélez (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Vélez (votes: 7 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 1.
    • In recent matches, Vélez has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Independiente is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Independiente may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 0.8:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Vélez won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.7:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Vélez Sársfield - Independiente were as follows:
    12.02.2025 Independiente - Vélez Sársfield 3:0
    27.09.2024 Vélez Sársfield - Independiente 1:0
    26.05.2024 Independiente - Vélez Sársfield 1:1
    30.01.2024 Vélez Sársfield - Independiente 0:1
    27.08.2023 Independiente - Vélez Sársfield 2:1
    Latest results of Vélez Sársfield
    Latest results of Independiente
    Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
    Clausura

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Barracas Central63219:7211
    2Defensa y Justicia62316:429
    3Estudiantes L.P53027:619
    4Huracan53024:5-19
    5Union de Santa Fe52216:248
    6Belgrano52215:238
    7Tigre62226:608
    8Central Cordoba51405:417
    9Banfield52127:8-17
    10Boca Juniors51315:326
    11Newells Old Boys51315:506
    12Argentinos Jrs51222:3-15
    13Ind. Rivadavia61236:8-25
    14Racing Club51133:5-24
    15Aldosivi50321:5-43


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1River Plate532011:3811
    2Lanus53025:329
    3San Lorenzo52214:318
    4Velez Sarsfield52214:318
    5Rosario Central51403:217
    6Dep. Riestra52125:507
    7Gimnasia L.P52124:407
    8Atl. Tucuman51315:506
    9Sarmiento Junin51315:6-16
    10Platense51314:5-16
    11San Martin S.J51224:5-15
    12Talleres Cordoba51223:4-15
    13Instituto51222:9-75
    14Godoy Cruz50324:7-33
    15Independiente50234:7-32

          Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)