Vélez Sársfield vs Independiente – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Argentinian Liga Profesional Vélez Sársfield - Independiente
Result
2:1
16/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Torneo Betano - Clausura - Round 5
  • Referee: Rey Hilfer L. (Arg)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaESPN Premium
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 1
chinaChinaK-Ball
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
israelIsraelSport 4
italyItalyComo TV, Sportitalia, Sportitalia Plus
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 2
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalSport TV2
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1, Arena Premium 2
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 1
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomPremier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
usaUsaFanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaInter
worldWorldTyC Sports Internacional

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.580.99
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
129
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
100
Passes
77% (276/358)71% (209/295)
Yellow Cards
46
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.580.99
xG on target (xGOT)
1.780.74
Total shots
129
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
55
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
85
Shots outside the Box
44
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
100
Touches in opposition box
2010
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1217
Passes
77% (276/358)71% (209/295)
Long passes
52% (26/50)42% (28/66)
Passes in final third
69% (75/109)50% (33/66)
Crosses
18% (5/28)50% (2/4)
Expected assists (xA)
0.980.26
Throw-ins
2022
Fouls
1712
Tackles
86% (18/21)50% (6/12)
Duels won
5047
Clearances
1222
Interceptions
816
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
21
xGOT faced
0.741.78
Goals prevented
-0.26-0.22

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 32', Lomonaco K. 🟥,
  • 35', 1 - 0, Godoy D. (Pen),
  • 36', Tarzia D. , Paredes F. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 49', Andrada T. 🟨,
  • 52', Galvan T. 🟨,
  • 54', Marcone I. 🟨,
  • 55', Andrada T. , Baeza C. ,
  • 60', Pussetto I. 🟨,
  • 62', Pussetto I. , Avalos G. ,
  • 62', Abaldo M. , Mazzantti W. ,
  • 62', Marcone I. , Loyola F. ,
  • 68', Galvan T. , Braian Romero ,
  • 68', Godoy D. , Carrizo M. ,
  • 74', Quiros A. 🟨,
  • 74', 1 - 1, Loyola F. (Pen),
  • 77', Loyola F. 🟨,
  • 82', de Irastorza J. 🟨,
  • 84', 2 - 1, Braian Romero (Pen),
  • 85', Millan L. , Montiel S. ,
  • 86', Machuca I. , Pellegrini M. ,
  • 86', Pizzini F. , Roldan L. ,
  • 89', Mazzantti W. 🟨,
  • 90+1', Lagos A. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Montiel S. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Vélez Sársfield
33.5%
Draw
33.5%
Independiente
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
37.9% 31.6% 30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8% 31.7% 30.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
  • Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
  • Vélez Sársfield - Independiente Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.81
    (2.5)
    2.83
    (3)
    2.84
    (3.1)
    6.1%
    (5.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
    What is the prediction for Vélez Sársfield - Independiente?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Independiente will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19%81%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Vélez (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Vélez (votes: 7 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 1.
    • In recent matches, Vélez has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Independiente is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Independiente may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 0.8:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Vélez won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.7:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Vélez Sársfield - Independiente were as follows:
    12.02.2025 Independiente - Vélez Sársfield 3:0
    27.09.2024 Vélez Sársfield - Independiente 1:0
    26.05.2024 Independiente - Vélez Sársfield 1:1
    30.01.2024 Vélez Sársfield - Independiente 0:1
    27.08.2023 Independiente - Vélez Sársfield 2:1
    Latest results of Vélez Sársfield
    Latest results of Independiente
    Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
    Clausura

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Central Cordoba1356216:10621
    2Estudiantes L.P1363415:13221
    3Union de Santa Fe1355319:13620
    4Defensa y Justicia1354413:13019
    5Argentinos Jrs1353515:10518
    6Belgrano1346313:10318
    7Barracas Central1246215:13218
    8Tigre1346313:11218
    9Racing Club1353514:13118
    10Boca Juniors1245319:10917
    11Banfield1352612:18-617
    12Huracan134456:11-516
    13Ind. Rivadavia1326511:14-312
    14Newells Old Boys1325611:21-1011
    15Aldosivi132385:15-109


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Dep. Riestra1383218:9927
    2Rosario Central1376015:6927
    3Lanus1382315:9626
    4Velez Sarsfield1374219:91025
    5River Plate1363420:12821
    6San Lorenzo1354411:10119
    7San Martin S.J1345410:11-117
    8Atl. Tucuman1343614:15-115
    9Sarmiento Junin134369:14-515
    10Instituto133647:12-515
    11Talleres Cordoba133557:12-514
    12Gimnasia L.P134188:16-813
    13Platense1325611:20-911
    14Godoy Cruz131759:16-710
    15Independiente131669:13-49

          Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)