Vélez Sársfield vs Independiente – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Argentinian Liga Profesional Vélez Sársfield - Independiente
Result
2:1
16/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Torneo Betano - Clausura - Round 5
  • Referee: Rey Hilfer L. (Arg)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaESPN Premium
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 1
chinaChinaK-Ball
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
israelIsraelSport 4
italyItalyComo TV, Sportitalia, Sportitalia Plus
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 2
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalSport TV2
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1, Arena Premium 2
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 1
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomPremier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
usaUsaFanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaInter
worldWorldTyC Sports Internacional

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.580.99
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
129
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
100
Passes
77% (276/358)71% (209/295)
Yellow Cards
46
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.580.99
xG on target (xGOT)
1.780.74
Total shots
129
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
55
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
85
Shots outside the Box
44
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
100
Touches in opposition box
2010
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1217
Passes
77% (276/358)71% (209/295)
Long passes
52% (26/50)42% (28/66)
Passes in final third
69% (75/109)50% (33/66)
Crosses
18% (5/28)50% (2/4)
Expected assists (xA)
0.980.26
Throw-ins
2022
Fouls
1712
Tackles
86% (18/21)50% (6/12)
Duels won
5047
Clearances
1222
Interceptions
816
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
21
xGOT faced
0.741.78
Goals prevented
-0.26-0.22

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 32', Lomonaco K. 🟥,
  • 35', 1 - 0, Godoy D. (Pen),
  • 36', Tarzia D. , Paredes F. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 49', Andrada T. 🟨,
  • 52', Galvan T. 🟨,
  • 54', Marcone I. 🟨,
  • 55', Andrada T. , Baeza C. ,
  • 60', Pussetto I. 🟨,
  • 62', Pussetto I. , Avalos G. ,
  • 62', Abaldo M. , Mazzantti W. ,
  • 62', Marcone I. , Loyola F. ,
  • 68', Galvan T. , Braian Romero ,
  • 68', Godoy D. , Carrizo M. ,
  • 74', Quiros A. 🟨,
  • 74', 1 - 1, Loyola F. (Pen),
  • 77', Loyola F. 🟨,
  • 82', de Irastorza J. 🟨,
  • 84', 2 - 1, Braian Romero (Pen),
  • 85', Millan L. , Montiel S. ,
  • 86', Machuca I. , Pellegrini M. ,
  • 86', Pizzini F. , Roldan L. ,
  • 89', Mazzantti W. 🟨,
  • 90+1', Lagos A. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Montiel S. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Vélez Sársfield
33.5%
Draw
33.5%
Independiente
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
37.9% 31.6% 30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8% 31.7% 30.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
  • Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
  • Vélez Sársfield - Independiente Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.81
    (2.5)
    2.83
    (3)
    2.84
    (3.1)
    6.1%
    (5.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Vélez Sársfield - Independiente?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Independiente will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19%81%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Vélez (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Vélez (votes: 7 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 1.
    • In recent matches, Vélez has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Independiente is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Independiente may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 0.8:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Vélez won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.7:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Vélez Sársfield - Independiente were as follows:
    12.02.2025 Independiente - Vélez Sársfield 3:0
    27.09.2024 Vélez Sársfield - Independiente 1:0
    26.05.2024 Independiente - Vélez Sársfield 1:1
    30.01.2024 Vélez Sársfield - Independiente 0:1
    27.08.2023 Independiente - Vélez Sársfield 2:1
    Latest results of Vélez Sársfield
    Latest results of Independiente
    Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
    Clausura

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Union de Santa Fe1145215:10517
    2Defensa y Justicia1144312:10216
    3Barracas Central1044212:10216
    4Tigre1144310:8216
    5Estudiantes L.P1051411:11016
    6Huracan114436:8-216
    7Argentinos Jrs1143412:8415
    8Central Cordoba1136212:9315
    9Boca Juniors1035213:8514
    10Banfield114259:14-514
    11Belgrano1034310:8213
    12Racing Club1032510:12-211
    13Ind. Rivadavia1024410:12-210
    14Newells Old Boys102449:12-310
    15Aldosivi111373:14-116


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Dep. Riestra1071214:6822
    2Velez Sarsfield1063114:5921
    3Lanus1162311:9220
    4River Plate1053217:9818
    5San Lorenzo114439:8116
    6Rosario Central93609:4515
    7Atl. Tucuman1143413:11215
    8Gimnasia L.P114167:12-513
    9Sarmiento Junin103348:11-312
    10Instituto112635:11-612
    11San Martin S.J112548:11-311
    12Talleres Cordoba102445:9-410
    13Platense1024410:15-510
    14Godoy Cruz101548:13-58
    15Independiente90545:9-45

          Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)