Result
2:2
28/09/2025 at 08:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 10
- Referee: Frankowski B. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | FOX Sports 3 |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go |
 Poland | CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 9 |
 Spain | GolStadium |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.79 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (329/402) | 80% (291/366) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.79 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 0.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (329/402) | 80% (291/366) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 63% (33/52) | 25% (10/40) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (78/116) | 71% (81/114) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (6/22) | 21% (4/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 0.58 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 58% (11/19) | 55% (11/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.03 | -0.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 15', Pietuszewski O. 🟨,
- 45', Thordarson G. 🟨,
- 45+3', 0 - 1, Imaz J. ⚽, Pozo A. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', 1 - 1, Bengtsson L. ⚽, Jagiello F. (A),
- 48', 1 - 2, Pietuszewski O. ⚽, Pululu A. (A),
- 57', Flach L. 🟨,
- 59', 2 - 2, Ishak M. (Pen),
- 59', Thordarson G. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
- 59', Rodriguez P. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
- 60', Moutinho J. ↓, Gurgul M. ↑,
- 71', Jozwiak K. ↓, Wojtuszek N. ↑,
- 71', Flach L. ↓, Drachal D. ↑,
- 76', Pelmard A. 🟨,
- 78', Imaz J. ↓, Jackson A. ↑,
- 80', Bengtsson L. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
- 83', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
- 83', Kozubal A. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
- 86', Pietuszewski O. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
- 86', Pozo A. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Lech Poznań
47.6% | Draw
24.4% | Jagiellonia Białystok
28% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lech Poznań's form might have worsened.Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+7.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lech Poznań, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-5.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jagiellonia Białystok, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.01 ↑
(1.79) |
3.83 ↓
(4.05) |
3.39 ↓
(3.94) |
5.3%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 46.1% – 91.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Lech (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 and 5).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lech won 3.
- At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
- Recently, Jagiellonia has had a series of away games.
- Lech might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Lech: Gholizadeh A.
(Thigh Injury)
Hakans D.
(Ankle Injury)
Palma L.
(Red Card)
Walemark P.
(Surgery)
- There are questionable in Lech: Murawski R.
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Jagiellonia: Pululu A.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lech won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 40:27. (average 2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:13. (average 2.5:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Jagiellonia Białystok?
Lech Poznań has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Jagiellonia Białystok won against Lech Poznań?
Jagiellonia Białystok has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok were as follows:
14.09.2024
Lech Poznań
-
Jagiellonia Białystok
5:0
17.02.2024
Jagiellonia Białystok
-
Lech Poznań
1:2
24.10.2023
Lech Poznań
-
Jagiellonia Białystok
3:3
27.05.2023
Lech Poznań
-
Jagiellonia Białystok
2:0
12.11.2022
Jagiellonia Białystok
-
Lech Poznań
1:2
Latest results of Lech Poznań
Latest results of Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Jagiellonia | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23:13 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19:10 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Cracovia | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21:14 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Wisla Plock | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15:8 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Korona Kielce | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16:12 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Lech Poznan | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20:18 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Zaglebie | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25:18 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20:23 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Widzew Lodz | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20:20 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Legia | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:12 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 22:22 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Arka Gdynia | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 9:20 | -11 | 15 |
| 13 | Rakow | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16:21 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | GKS Katowice | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 17:24 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21:27 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Termalica B-B | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 | Piast Gliwice | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
