Lech Poznań vs Jagiellonia Białystok – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Polish Ekstraklasa Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok
Result
2:2
28/09/2025 at 08:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ekstraklasa - Round 10
  • Referee: Frankowski B. (Pol)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaFOX Sports 3
canadaCanadabeIN Connect
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
polandPolandCANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 9
spainSpainGolStadium
usaUsabeIN Connect, Fanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.500.79
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
510
Passes
82% (329/402)80% (291/366)
Yellow Cards
14
Expected Goals (xG)
1.500.79
xG on target (xGOT)
1.570.97
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
25
Blocked Shots
57
Shots inside the Box
911
Shots outside the Box
44
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
510
Touches in opposition box
3028
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1310
Passes
82% (329/402)80% (291/366)
Long passes
63% (33/52)25% (10/40)
Passes in final third
67% (78/116)71% (81/114)
Crosses
27% (6/22)21% (4/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.940.58
Throw-ins
139
Fouls
1013
Tackles
58% (11/19)55% (11/20)
Duels won
5356
Clearances
3024
Interceptions
79
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
0.971.57
Goals prevented
-1.03-0.43

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 15', Pietuszewski O. 🟨,
  • 45', Thordarson G. 🟨,
  • 45+3', 0 - 1, Imaz J. , Pozo A. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', 1 - 1, Bengtsson L. , Jagiello F. (A),
  • 48', 1 - 2, Pietuszewski O. , Pululu A. (A),
  • 57', Flach L. 🟨,
  • 59', 2 - 2, Ishak M. (Pen),
  • 59', Thordarson G. , Ouma T. ,
  • 59', Rodriguez P. , Ismaheel T. ,
  • 60', Moutinho J. , Gurgul M. ,
  • 71', Jozwiak K. , Wojtuszek N. ,
  • 71', Flach L. , Drachal D. ,
  • 76', Pelmard A. 🟨,
  • 78', Imaz J. , Jackson A. ,
  • 80', Bengtsson L. , Lisman K. ,
  • 83', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
  • 83', Kozubal A. , Agnero Y. ,
  • 86', Pietuszewski O. , Rallis D. ,
  • 86', Pozo A. , Cantero A. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Lech Poznań
47.6%
Draw
24.4%
Jagiellonia Białystok
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.7% 23.3% 24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5% 24.5% 22.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lech Poznań's form might have worsened.
  • Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+7.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lech Poznań, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-5.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jagiellonia Białystok, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.01
    (1.79)
    3.83
    (4.05)
    3.39
    (3.94)
    5.3%
    (5.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok?
  • Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 46.1%91.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Lech (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 and 5).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lech won 3.
    • At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
    • Recently, Jagiellonia has had a series of away games.
    • Lech might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Lech: Gholizadeh A. (Thigh Injury) Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Palma L. (Red Card) Walemark P. (Surgery)
    • There are questionable in Lech: Murawski R. (Leg Injury)
    • There are questionable in Jagiellonia: Pululu A. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lech won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 40:27. (average 2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:13. (average 2.5:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok were as follows:
    14.09.2024 Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok 5:0
    17.02.2024 Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań 1:2
    24.10.2023 Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok 3:3
    27.05.2023 Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok 2:0
    12.11.2022 Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań 1:2
    Latest results of Lech Poznań
    Polish Ekstraklasa Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Jagiellonia1063119:13621
    2Gornik Zabrze1061315:8719
    3Cracovia1053218:12618
    4Korona Kielce1153315:10518
    5Wisla Plock1053212:7518
    6Legia943212:6615
    7Radomiak Radom1143420:19115
    8Lech Poznan943217:16115
    9Rakow1042412:13-114
    10Zaglebie1034321:16513
    11Widzew Lodz1141617:15213
    12Pogon Szczecin1141616:20-413
    13Arka Gdynia113357:15-812
    14Motor Lublin1025311:16-511
    15Termalica B-B1123615:21-69
    16GKS Katowice1022611:21-108
    17Piast Gliwice91448:11-37
    18Lechia Gdansk1133519:26-77

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          Relegation ~ Division 1