Result
4:1
22/03/2026 at 09:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 26
- Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Poland | CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.28 | 1.34 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 68% | 32% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (500/564) | 75% (203/270) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.28 | 1.34 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.34 | 0.69 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 38 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (500/564) | 75% (203/270) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 65% (26/40) | 55% (23/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (113/148) | 62% (42/68) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (9/25) | 40% (4/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.32 | 0.73 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 27% (3/11) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 34 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.69 | 3.34 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.31 | -0.66 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 0)
- 33', 1 - 0, Bengtsson L. ⚽,
- 36', 2 - 0, Bengtsson L. ⚽,
- 37', 3 - 0, Gholizadeh A. ⚽, Rodriguez P. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 52', Kubica K. 🟨,
- 53', Biniek D. ↓, Fassbender M. ↑,
- 53', Guerrero S. ↓, Masoero L. ↑,
- 53', Durdov I. ↓, Zapolnik K. ↑,
- 60', Walemark P. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
- 60', Rodriguez P. ↓, Thordarson G. ↑,
- 65', 3 - 1, Isik G. ⚽,
- 71', Matysik M. 🟨,
- 78', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
- 79', Kubica K. 🟨,
- 81', Jimenez J. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
- 82', Putivtsev A. 🟨,
- 84', Bengtsson L. ↓, Dudek S. ↑,
- 84', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
- 87', 4 - 1, Ismaheel T. ⚽, Thordarson G. (A),
- 90', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,
- 90+1', Masoero L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Lech Poznań
69.9% | Draw
17.9% | Termalica Nieciecza
12.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lech Poznań's performance.Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-21.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lech Poznań that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+6.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Termalica Nieciecza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.34 ↓
(1.4) |
5.23 ↑
(4.1) |
7.57 ↑
(6.3) |
7%
(11.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza?
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 17 - 81%). Termalica will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 64.2% – 97.8%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lech won 5.
- Lech has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Termalica has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Termalica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Lech is the obvious favorite.
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lech won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 28:8. (average 2.8:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:3. (average 4:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Termalica Nieciecza?
Lech Poznań has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Termalica Nieciecza won against Lech Poznań?
Termalica Nieciecza has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza were as follows:
20.09.2025
Termalica Nieciecza
-
Lech Poznań
0:2
Latest results of Lech Poznań
Latest results of Termalica Nieciecza
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 55:41 | 14 | 52 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 43:34 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 48:37 | 11 | 46 |
| 4 | Rakow | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 43:37 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Wisla Plock | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 32:28 | 4 | 45 |
| 6 | GKS Katowice | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 43:41 | 2 | 44 |
| 7 | Zaglebie | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 43:36 | 7 | 44 |
| 8 | Radomiak Radom | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 46:43 | 3 | 40 |
| 9 | Motor Lublin | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 39:45 | -6 | 39 |
| 10 | Piast Gliwice | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 39:40 | -1 | 39 |
| 11 | Lechia Gdansk | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 57:54 | 3 | 38 |
| 12 | Korona Kielce | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 37:36 | 1 | 38 |
| 13 | Cracovia | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 |
| 14 | Pogon Szczecin | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 40:45 | -5 | 38 |
| 15 | Legia | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 34:36 | -2 | 37 |
| 16 | Widzew Lodz | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36:37 | -1 | 36 |
| 17 | Arka Gdynia | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 31:54 | -23 | 34 |
| 18 | Termalica B-B | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 36:55 | -19 | 28 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
