Result
4:2
21/04/2026 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 16
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | TUDN, VIX, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.99 | 0.58 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 72% | 28% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (508/570) | 71% (159/224) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.99 | 0.58 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.42 | 0.49 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 19 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (508/570) | 71% (159/224) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 62% (26/42) | 29% (14/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (114/146) | 44% (28/64) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (11/34) | 33% (4/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 0.31 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 29% (2/7) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.49 | 3.42 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.51 | -0.58 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 9', Ayon E. 🟨,
- 35', 0 - 1, Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. ⚽, Lopez E. (A),
- 45+1', 0 - 2, Torres Ramirez I. J. M. ⚽, Puma (A),
- 2nd Half (4 - 0)
- 46', Juninho ↓, Rico A. ↑,
- 55', Lopez E. 🟥,
- 57', Medina A. ↓, Antuna U. ↑,
- 60', Torres Ramirez I. J. M. ↓, Guilherme Castilho ↑,
- 60', Puma ↓, Aquino J. ↑,
- 61', Nathan Silva 🟨,
- 66', 1 - 2, Martinez G. (Penalty Awarded),
- 66', Ayon E. ↓, Dupuy L. ↑,
- 70', 2 - 2, Martinez G. ⚽, Carrillo J. (A),
- 77', Carrillo J. 🟨,
- 78', Garcia D. ↓, Martinez Yepez H. E. ↑,
- 82', Lopez R. ↓, Leone T. ↑,
- 82', Guilherme Castilho 🟨,
- 86', 3 - 2, Morales R. ⚽, Antuna U. (A),
- 88', Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 🟨,
- 90+4', Carrillo J. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
- 90+7', Murillo J. 🟨,
- 90+8', 4 - 2, Morales R. ⚽,
Chances of winning
UNAM
57.4% | Draw
22.6% | Juárez
20% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in UNAM's performance.Juárez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-5.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with UNAM that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
UNAM - Juárez Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.66 ↓
(1.81) |
4.15 ↑
(3.5) |
4.67 ↑
(3.65) |
5.9%
(11.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for UNAM - Juárez?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -1 - UNAM (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - UNAM (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - UNAM (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
UNAM will win
(21 of 22 users predict this - 95.45%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.74% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): UNAM will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. UNAM (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).
- UNAM is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 3.
- UNAM is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- In recent matches, Juárez has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Juárez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, UNAM is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in UNAM: Carrasquilla A.
(Yellow Cards)
Macias J.
(Knee Injury)
Navas K.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Juárez: Romero B.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Juárez: Ricardinho
(Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:23. (average 1.4:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, UNAM won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 1.3:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has UNAM won against Juárez?
UNAM has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Juárez won against UNAM?
Juárez has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between UNAM - Juárez were as follows:
23.09.2025
Juárez
-
UNAM
3:1
27.04.2025
Juárez
-
UNAM
1:2
12.04.2025
UNAM
-
Juárez
0:0
17.07.2024
Juárez
-
UNAM
1:2
14.01.2024
UNAM
-
Juárez
1:0
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | UNAM Pumas | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 34:17 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33:17 | 16 | 36 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 31:18 | 13 | 33 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 25:19 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | Toluca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 28:16 | 12 | 30 |
| 6 | Atlas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 26 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28:18 | 10 | 25 |
| 8 | Club America | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20:17 | 3 | 25 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 23 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 22:32 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 | Queretaro | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Juarez | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 26:32 | -6 | 19 |
| 13 | Monterrey | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22:24 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 | Atl. San Luis | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 24:27 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22:37 | -15 | 15 |
| 17 | Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13:26 | -13 | 13 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 20:38 | -18 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
