Result
1:1
28/02/2026 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 22
- Referee: Umudlu K. (Aze)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Azerbaijan | CBC Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 26', 0 - 1, Barker I. ⚽,
- 34', Sissoko S. ↓, Akinade I. ↑,
- 35', Goncalves Mateus P. L. 🟨,
- 37', 1 - 1, Keita S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 45', Thompson G. 🟨,
- 45+1', Rustamov E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 67', Ba Loua A. ↓, Shahniyarov S. ↑,
- 74', Thompson G. ↓, Cahangirov U. ↑,
- 86', Spence K. C. ↓, Kings P. ↑,
- 88', Massoumou D. J. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,
- 88', Ahmadov E. ↓, Aliyev N. ↑,
- 89', Manafov T. ↓, Rashidov N. ↑,
- 90+1', Mickels J. ↓, Abdullayev S. ↑,
- 90+2', Sno S. ↓, Masimov V. ↑,
- 90+2', Rustamli R. ↓, Qadirzada I. ↑,
Chances of winning
Gabala
51.9% | Draw
27.4% | Karvan
20.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gabala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)Karvan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (-8.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gabala that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karvan than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
Gabala - Karvan Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.75 ↑
(1.65) |
3.32 ↓
(3.65) |
4.39 ↓
(4.87) |
9.9%
(8.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Gabala - Karvan?
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gabala (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 11 and 12 in the zone Relegation ~ I Liqa).
- Gabala is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Karvan has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Gabala may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Gabala is a strong favorite.
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).
- Including home match between the teams, Gabala won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Gabala won against Karvan?
Gabala has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Karvan won against Gabala?
Karvan has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gabala - Karvan were as follows:
15.08.2025
Karvan
-
Gabala
1:1
02.05.2025
Karvan
-
Gabala
2:0
28.02.2025
Gabala
-
Karvan
2:0
28.11.2024
Karvan
-
Gabala
0:1
Azerbaijan Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sabah Baku | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 69:21 | 48 | 72 |
| 2 | Qarabag | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 60:20 | 40 | 59 |
| 3 | Turan Tovuz | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 39:20 | 19 | 56 |
| 4 | Zira | 29 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 38:32 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Neftci Baku | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 46:30 | 16 | 44 |
| 6 | Araz | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 38:53 | -15 | 40 |
| 7 | Sumqayit | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 38:40 | -2 | 38 |
| 8 | Shamakhi | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 27:29 | -2 | 35 |
| 9 | Imisli FK | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 21:39 | -18 | 29 |
| 10 | Kapaz | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 22:57 | -35 | 21 |
| 11 | Gabala | 29 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 26:45 | -19 | 20 |
| 12 | Karvan | 29 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 21:59 | -38 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ I Liqa
