Result
2:1 penalties
28/03/2026 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 5
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | AbemaTV, DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 1.18 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (361/443) | 84% (429/508) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 1.18 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 37 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (361/443) | 84% (429/508) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (27/58) | 46% (23/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (84/122) | 74% (115/155) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 42% (8/19) | 22% (5/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 0.84 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (12/14) | 54% (7/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.82 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.01 | -0.18 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 41', 1 - 0, Erik ⚽, Soma Y. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 58', 1 - 1, Erison ⚽,
- 61', Yengi T. ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
- 76', Ito T. ↓, Yamamoto Y. ↑,
- 78', Erik 🟥,
- 80', Lavi N. ↓, Shirasaki R. ↑,
- 86', Marcinho ↓, Myogan T. ↑,
- 86', Tachibanada K. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
- 90+1', Miyagi T. ↓, Kanda S. ↑,
- 90+1', Erison ↓, Romanic L. ↑,
- 90+4', Mae H. 🟨,
- 90+6', Shoji G. ↓, Dresevic I. ↑,
- 90+6', Hayashi K. ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,
- Penalties (3 - 1)
- 1, Romanic L. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Soma Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Yamamoto Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Nakayama Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Kobayashi Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Na Sang-Ho (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Kawahara S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Dresevic I. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Machida Zelvia
54.6% | Draw
24.3% | Kawasaki Frontale
21.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Machida Zelvia's performance.Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-5.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Machida Zelvia that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
Machida Zelvia - Kawasaki Frontale Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.72 ↓
(1.91) |
3.85 ↑
(3.4) |
4.4 ↑
(3.6) |
7%
(9.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia - Kawasaki Frontale?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Kawasaki will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 35.2% – 92%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kawasaki (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)).
- Machida Zelvia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- In recent matches, Kawasaki has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Machida Zelvia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Kawasaki: Sasaki A.
(Hamstring Injury)
Taniguchi H.
(Hamstring Injury)
Yamaichi S.
(Illness)
- There are questionable in Kawasaki: Ozeki Y.
(Ankle Injury)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.8:2.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:6. (average 1.5:3).
How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Kawasaki Frontale?
Machida Zelvia has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kawasaki Frontale won against Machida Zelvia?
Kawasaki Frontale has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Machida Zelvia - Kawasaki Frontale were as follows:
31.08.2025
Kawasaki Frontale
-
Machida Zelvia
5:3
06.04.2025
Machida Zelvia
-
Kawasaki Frontale
2:2
05.10.2024
Machida Zelvia
-
Kawasaki Frontale
1:4
07.04.2024
Kawasaki Frontale
-
Machida Zelvia
0:1
Latest results of Machida Zelvia
Latest results of Kawasaki Frontale
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 13 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21:9 | 32 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 13 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 27:13 | 29 |
| 3 | Machida | 12 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20:18 | 24 |
| 4 | Verdy | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 19:16 | 21 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 20:23 | 20 |
| 6 | Mito | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 19:27 | 16 |
| 7 | Urawa Reds | 13 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 18:19 | 15 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20:24 | 15 |
| 9 | Kashiwa Reysol | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiba | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13:24 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 23:13 | 26 |
| 2 | Nagoya Grampus | 13 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23:19 | 22 |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 23:21 | 22 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 21:18 | 20 |
| 5 | Kyoto | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19:16 | 19 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15:13 | 19 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 13 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:18 | 17 |
| 8 | Okayama | 13 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17:24 | 17 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17:25 | 17 |
| 10 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 13:20 | 16 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
