Result
1:1
14/12/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super Lig - Round 16
- Referee: Altay C. (Tur)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | TOD |
 Turkey | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 1.14 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 35% | 65% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (242/302) | 89% (484/546) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 1.14 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.79 | 2.05 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (242/302) | 89% (484/546) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (21/48) | 65% (22/34) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (51/77) | 77% (133/172) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (1/8) | 18% (7/38) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 0.95 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (9/12) | 62% (16/26) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 62 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 45 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.05 | 0.79 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.05 | -0.21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 22', Balogh B. 🟨,
- 35', Show 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 50', Serginho 🟨,
- 65', 1 - 0, Fofana D. D. ⚽, Johnson D. (A),
- 68', Dursun S. ↓, Petkovic B. ↑,
- 72', Balogh B. ↓, Rivas R. ↑,
- 72', Show ↓, Churlinov D. ↑,
- 75', Johnson D. 🟨,
- 79', Johnson D. ↓, Kalayci B. ↑,
- 85', Keita H. ↓, Gedik F. ↑,
- 87', Ozcan B. ↓, Cinar A. ↑,
- 90', Kranevitter M. ↓, Kalpakli T. ↑,
- 90+3', 1 - 1, Petkovic B. ⚽, Smolcic H. (A),
Chances of winning
Fatih Karagümrükspor
27.4% | Draw
30.1% | Kocaelispor
42.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fatih Karagümrükspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)Kocaelispor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fatih Karagümrükspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kocaelispor than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
Fatih Karagümrükspor - Kocaelispor Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.43 ↑
(3) |
3.16 ↓
(3.21) |
2.22 ↓
(2.42) |
5.8%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Fatih Karagümrükspor - Kocaelispor?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Karagümrük will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Kocaelispor will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Karagümrük: 19.1% – 73.3%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Kocaelispor will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig and 8).
- In recent matches, Karagümrük has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Kocaelispor is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Kocaelispor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Kocaelispor will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Karagümrük: Beklevic F.
(Suspended)
Sivri A.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Kocaelispor: Oguz A.
(Yellow Cards)
Wieteska M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Karagümrük: Cukur T.
(Injury)
Larsson S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Kocaelispor: Agyei D.
(Inactive)
Smolcic H.
(Injury)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Karagümrük won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Fatih Karagümrükspor won against Kocaelispor?
Fatih Karagümrükspor has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kocaelispor won against Fatih Karagümrükspor?
Kocaelispor has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fatih Karagümrükspor - Kocaelispor were as follows:
02.11.2024
Kocaelispor
-
Fatih Karagümrükspor
2:1
Latest results of Fatih Karagümrükspor
Latest results of Kocaelispor
Turkish Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Galatasaray | 26 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 62:18 | 44 | 64 |
| 2 | Fenerbahce | 27 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 61:28 | 33 | 60 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 53:29 | 24 | 60 |
| 4 | Besiktas | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 49:31 | 18 | 52 |
| 5 | Basaksehir | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 44:30 | 14 | 43 |
| 6 | Goztepe | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 30:20 | 10 | 43 |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 29:31 | -2 | 35 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 23:32 | -9 | 33 |
| 9 | Gaziantep | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:46 | -10 | 33 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 27 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 33:32 | 1 | 31 |
| 11 | Rizespor | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 32:36 | -4 | 30 |
| 12 | Konyaspor | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 31:39 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Genclerbirligi | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 28:37 | -9 | 25 |
| 14 | Antalyaspor | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 25:43 | -18 | 25 |
| 15 | Kasimpasa | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 23:38 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 | Kayserispor | 27 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 21:48 | -27 | 23 |
| 17 | Eyupspor | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19:38 | -19 | 22 |
| 18 | Karagumruk | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 24:47 | -23 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ 1. Lig
