Result
33:43
14/02/2026 at 10:35 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Top 14 - Round 17
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | Canal+ Live 5 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Tries |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Conversion goals |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Conversion goal attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Penalty goals |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Penalty goal attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goals % |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Dropped goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Total runs |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Metres run with ball |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (16 - 16)
- 5', West I. (Penalty Goal),
- 8', Leyds D. (Try),
- 9', West I. (Conversion Goal),
- 14', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
- 17', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
- 20', West I. (Penalty Goal),
- 26', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
- 28', West I. (Penalty Goal),
- 34', Miotti H. (Try),
- 35', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (17 - 27)
- 48', Tauleigne M. (Try),
- 49', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
- 51', Bourgarit P. (Try),
- 54', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
- 55', Fraindt K. 🟨,
- 60', Tolofua C. (Try),
- 61', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
- 67', Masibaka A. (Try),
- 67', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
- 71', Boudehent P. (Try),
- 72', Hastoy A. (Conversion Goal),
- 72', Duguid T. 🟨,
- 78', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
- 80', Boudehent P. (Try),
Chances of winning
La Rochelle
59.2% | Draw
3.8% | Montpellier
37% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
La Rochelle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that La Rochelle's form might have worsened.Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Rochelle than the current prediction. (+12.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for La Rochelle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-11.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
La Rochelle - Montpellier Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.58 ↑
(1.4) |
24.46 ↑
(16.48) |
2.49 ↓
(3.43) |
7.8%
(6.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 53.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)
What is the prediction for La Rochelle - Montpellier?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. La Rochelle will win (votes: 6 - 100%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): La Rochelle will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 30:25.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Rochelle won 2.
- Recent form of La Rochelle has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Montpellier is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- In this match, La Rochelle is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, La Rochelle won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 452:505. (average 22.6:25.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, La Rochelle won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 295:213. (average 29.5:21.3).
How many head-to-head matches has La Rochelle won against Montpellier?
La Rochelle has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Montpellier won against La Rochelle?
Montpellier has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between La Rochelle - Montpellier were as follows:
04.10.2025
Montpellier
-
La Rochelle
37:13
18.05.2025
La Rochelle
-
Montpellier
47:18
26.10.2024
Montpellier
-
La Rochelle
16:0
03.02.2024
La Rochelle
-
Montpellier
18:10
20.08.2023
Montpellier
-
La Rochelle
26:15
Latest results of La Rochelle
Latest results of Montpellier
French Top 14 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Stade Toulousain | 18 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 730:365 | 67 |
| 2 | Section Paloise | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 558:477 | 55 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 561:390 | 53 |
| 4 | Clermont | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 596:467 | 51 |
| 5 | Bordeaux Begles | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 591:483 | 50 |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 513:448 | 49 |
| 7 | RC Toulonnais | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 465:536 | 45 |
| 8 | Racing 92 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 514:558 | 45 |
| 9 | Castres Olympique | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 431:501 | 42 |
| 10 | Stade Rochelais | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 551:487 | 41 |
| 11 | Lyon | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 521:502 | 39 |
| 12 | Aviron Bayonnais | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 467:595 | 36 |
| 13 | USA Perpignan | 18 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 344:511 | 18 |
| 14 | Montauban | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 338:860 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Top 14 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Pro D2
