Result
1:1
11/12/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Conference League - League phase - Round 5
- Referee: Chivulete A. (Rou)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD |
 Australia | Stan Sport |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1 |
 China | ZhiBo8 |
 Denmark | Disney+ |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | Canal+ Live 12 |
 Germany | RTL+ |
 Greece | ANT 1+ |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 Indonesia | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Malta | GO TV, TSN Malta 2 |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Poland | Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1 |
 Portugal | DAZN / App |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Singapore | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 South-korea | SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones 14 |
 Sweden | Disney+ |
 Thailand | beIN Connect |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 15 |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | ON Plus |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.60 | 1.23 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 68% | 32% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (563/647) | 79% (238/303) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.60 | 1.23 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.63 | 1.09 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 8 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 39 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (563/647) | 79% (238/303) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (24/44) | 48% (24/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (173/228) | 60% (42/70) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (5/23) | 31% (5/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.29 | 1.76 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 88% (7/8) | 53% (10/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 45 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 17 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.09 | 2.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.09 | 1.63 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 26', Widmer S. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
- 28', 0 - 1, Kawasaki S. ⚽, Hollerbach B. (A),
- 31', Kozubal A. 🟨,
- 37', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
- 41', 1 - 1, Ishak M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Jagiello F. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
- 51', Kawasaki S. 🟨,
- 67', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
- 67', Palma L. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
- 67', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
- 71', Gurgul M. 🟨,
- 71', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Boving W. ↑,
- 71', Weiper N. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
- 81', Kozubal A. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
- 85', Kawasaki S. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
- 85', Hollerbach B. ↓, Moreno Fell F. ↑,
- 86', Gurgul M. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Lech Poznań
32.4% | Draw
25.9% | Mainz
41.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
Lech Poznań - Mainz Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.91 ↑
(2.86) |
3.64 ↑
(3.43) |
2.28 ↓
(2.3) |
5.8%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Mainz?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 10 - 45.5%). Mainz will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 31.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 24.7% – 66.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Lech (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Lech is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Mainz is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Mainz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Lech: Hakans D.
(Ankle Injury)
Jagiello F.
(Injury)
Milic A.
(Injury)
Murawski R.
(Surgery)
Thordarson G.
(Injury)
Walemark P.
(Surgery)
- There will not play in Mainz: Bos K.
(Inactive)
Dal M.
(Knee Injury)
Kohr D.
(Red Card)
Tauer N.
(Inactive)
Zentner R.
(Groin Injury)
- There are questionable in Lech: Douglas A.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Mainz: Caci A.
(Thigh Injury)
- We predict that Lech will win today's game, with odds of 2.92.
- In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Mainz?
Lech Poznań has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Lech Poznań?
Mainz has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Mainz were as follows:
Latest results of Lech Poznań
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | KuPS (21) | Lech Poznan (11) | 0 : 2 |
| 2 | Noah (19) | AZ Alkmaar (14) | 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Zrinjski (23) | Crystal Palace (10) | 1 : 1 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia (17) | Fiorentina (15) | 0 : 3 |
| 5 | Shkendija (22) | Samsunspor (12) | 0 : 1 |
| 6 | Drita (20) | Celje (13) | 2 : 3 |
| 7 | Sigma Olomouc (24) | Lausanne (9) | 1 : 1 |
| 8 | Omonia (18) | Rijeka (16) | 0 : 1 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano (5) | Bye | |
| 10 | Shakhtar Donetsk (6) | Bye | |
| 11 | AEK Athens (3) | Bye | |
| 12 | Sparta Prague (4) | Bye | |
| 13 | Mainz (7) | Bye | |
| 14 | AEK Larnaca (8) | Bye | |
| 15 | Strasbourg (1) | Bye | |
| 16 | Rakow (2) | Bye | |
