Lech Poznań vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa Conference League
Result
1:1
11/12/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Conference League - League phase - Round 5
  • Referee: Chivulete A. (Rou)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
chinaChinaZhiBo8
denmarkDenmarkDisney+
finlandFinlandViaplay
franceFranceCanal+ Live 12
germanyGermanyRTL+
greeceGreeceANT 1+
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
icelandIcelandViaplay
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 2
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandPolsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 14
swedenSwedenDisney+
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 15
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+ App, Discovery+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.601.23
Ball Possession
68%32%
Total shots
2013
Shots on target
85
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
25
Passes
87% (563/647)79% (238/303)
Yellow Cards
23
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.601.23
xG on target (xGOT)
2.631.09
Total shots
2013
Shots on target
85
Shots off target
48
Blocked Shots
80
Shots inside the Box
139
Shots outside the Box
74
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
25
Touches in opposition box
3915
Accurate through passes
31
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
1214
Passes
87% (563/647)79% (238/303)
Long passes
55% (24/44)48% (24/50)
Passes in final third
76% (173/228)60% (42/70)
Crosses
22% (5/23)31% (5/16)
Expected assists (xA)
2.291.76
Throw-ins
2011
Fouls
1412
Tackles
88% (7/8)53% (10/19)
Duels won
4149
Clearances
2145
Interceptions
617
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
46
xGOT faced
1.092.63
Goals prevented
0.091.63

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 26', Widmer S. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
  • 28', 0 - 1, Kawasaki S. ⚽, Hollerbach B. (A),
  • 31', Kozubal A. 🟨,
  • 37', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
  • 41', 1 - 1, Ishak M. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Jagiello F. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
  • 51', Kawasaki S. 🟨,
  • 67', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
  • 67', Palma L. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
  • 67', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
  • 71', Gurgul M. 🟨,
  • 71', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Boving W. ↑,
  • 71', Weiper N. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
  • 81', Kozubal A. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
  • 85', Kawasaki S. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
  • 85', Hollerbach B. ↓, Moreno Fell F. ↑,
  • 86', Gurgul M. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,

Chances of winning


Lech Poznań
32.4%		Draw
25.9%		Mainz
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
32.5% 27.1% 40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5% 26.3% 39.1%

Lech Poznań - Mainz Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 2.91 ↑
(2.86)		 3.64 ↑
(3.43)		 2.28 ↓
(2.3)		 5.8%
(7.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Mainz?
  • Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 10 - 45.5%). Mainz will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 31.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 24.7% – 66.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Lech (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Lech is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Mainz is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Mainz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • There will not play in Lech: Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Jagiello F. (Injury) Milic A. (Injury) Murawski R. (Surgery) Thordarson G. (Injury) Walemark P. (Surgery)
    • There will not play in Mainz: Bos K. (Inactive) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card) Tauer N. (Inactive) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
    • There are questionable in Lech: Douglas A. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury)
    • We predict that Lech will win today's game, with odds of 2.92.
    • In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Lech Poznań
    07.12.2025 Cracovia - Lech Poznań 2:2 ✺
    03.12.2025 Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań 0:2 ✺
    30.11.2025 Wisła Płock - Lech Poznań 0:0 ✺
    27.11.2025 Lech Poznań - Lausanne-Sport 2:0 ✺
    23.11.2025 Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom 4:1 ✺
    Latest results of Mainz
    05.12.2025 Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:1 ✺
    30.11.2025 Freiburg - Mainz 4:0 ✺
    27.11.2025 Universitatea Craiova - Mainz 1:0 ✺
    21.11.2025 Mainz - Hoffenheim 1:1 ✺
    09.11.2025 Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz 1:0 ✺
    UEFA Europa Conference League Table
    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Strasbourg ✔ 54108:4413
    2Shakhtar Donetsk540110:5512
    3Rakow53208:2611
    4AEK Athens531111:5610
    5Samsunspor531110:4610
    6Sparta Prague53117:3410
    7Rayo Vallecano531110:7310
    8Mainz53115:3210
    9Crystal Palace53029:459
    10AEK Larnaca52306:159
    11Fiorentina53028:449
    12Celje53028:719
    13AZ Alkmaar53027:709
    14Rijeka52215:238
    15Omonia52215:328
    16Lausanne52215:328
    17Noah52216:518
    18Jagiellonia52215:418
    19Drita52214:5-18
    20Lech Poznan521210:737
    21Shkendija52124:407
    22Sigma Olomouc52126:7-17
    23Univ. Craiova52124:5-17
    24Lincoln Red Imps52126:11-57
    25KuPS51314:316
    26Zrinjski52037:9-26
    27Breidablik51225:8-35
    28Dyn. Kyiv51047:9-23
    29Hacken50325:7-23
    30Legia51044:7-33
    31Slovan Bratislava51044:9-53
    32Hamrun51043:8-53
    33Aberdeen50233:11-82
    34Shelbourne50140:7-71
    35Shamrock Rovers50144:12-81
    36SK Rapid50052:13-110

          Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Strasbourg is Qualified for Conference League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
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