Raków Częstochowa vs Lech Poznań – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Polish Ekstraklasa Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań
Result
2:2
24/09/2025 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ekstraklasa - Round 6
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 3
canadaCanadabeIN Connect
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
polandPolandTVP Sport app, TVP Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 3
usaUsabeIN Connect, Fanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.770.72
Ball Possession
64%36%
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
73
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
62
Passes
89% (487/546)74% (231/311)
Yellow Cards
31
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
2.770.72
xG on target (xGOT)
2.400.62
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
73
Shots off target
42
Blocked Shots
75
Shots inside the Box
156
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
3615
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
41
Free Kicks
1510
Passes
89% (487/546)74% (231/311)
Long passes
67% (24/36)32% (19/59)
Passes in final third
88% (138/157)66% (62/94)
Crosses
26% (9/35)18% (2/11)
Expected assists (xA)
2.690.47
Throw-ins
1317
Fouls
1015
Tackles
67% (8/12)77% (17/22)
Duels won
5449
Clearances
2036
Interceptions
38
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
0.622.40
Goals prevented
-1.380.40

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 29', 0 - 1, Pereira J. , Palma L. (A),
  • 32', Kozubal A. 🟨,
  • 45+3', Tudor F. 🟨,
  • 45+4', 0 - 2, Palma L. , Kozubal A. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Rondic I. , Diaby-Fadiga L. ,
  • 46', Racovitan B. , Ameyaw M. ,
  • 53', Palma L. 🟥,
  • 58', Arsenic Z. , Repka O. ,
  • 61', Repka O. 🟨,
  • 63', Lisman K. , Skrzypczak M. ,
  • 63', Ismaheel T. , Bengtsson L. ,
  • 64', Ishak M. , Agnero Y. ,
  • 64', 1 - 2, Barath P. , Bulat M. (A),
  • 67', 2 - 2, Lopez I. (Pen),
  • 76', Pereira J. , Gumny R. ,
  • 89', Kozubal A. , Fiabema B. ,
  • 90+5', Adriano 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Raków Częstochowa
44.1%
Draw
28%
Lech Poznań
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
46.6% 26.2% 27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6% 25.1% 26.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
  • Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
  • Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.14
    (2)
    3.37
    (3.55)
    3.39
    (3.41)
    6%
    (7.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań?
  • Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Lech will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.2%64.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 6).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Raków won 2.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Raków will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Raków won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:20. (average 1.7:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Raków won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.7:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań were as follows:
    14.02.2025 Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa 0:1
    09.08.2024 Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań 0:0
    03.03.2024 Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań 4:0
    28.09.2023 Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa 4:1
    14.05.2023 Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań 0:2
    Latest results of Raków Częstochowa
    Latest results of Lech Poznań
    Polish Ekstraklasa Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Jagiellonia1173123:131024
    2Gornik Zabrze1272319:10923
    3Cracovia1163220:12821
    4Wisla Plock1163215:8721
    5Korona Kielce1254316:11519
    6Lech Poznan1154220:18219
    7Zaglebie1245325:18717
    8Widzew Lodz1351720:20016
    9Legia1143414:12215
    10Radomiak Radom1243522:22015
    11Rakow1142512:15-314
    12Pogon Szczecin1242618:22-414
    13Motor Lublin1235416:21-514
    14Arka Gdynia123367:19-1212
    15GKS Katowice1232716:24-811
    16Lechia Gdansk1243521:27-610
    17Termalica B-B1324717:25-810
    18Piast Gliwice101459:13-47

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Division 1