Result
4:3
01/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 23
- Referee: Frankowski B. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go |
 Czech-republic | Oneplay, Strike, Strike |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Poland | CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.84 | 1.96 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (292/371) | 77% (251/327) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.84 | 1.96 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 4.61 | 2.62 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (292/371) | 77% (251/327) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (23/53) | 35% (18/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (87/130) | 59% (40/68) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 42% (8/19) | 43% (6/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 0.54 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 42% (5/12) | 80% (8/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 32 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 37 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.62 | 4.61 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.38 | 0.61 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 3', Gumny R. 🟨,
- 5', Mrozek B. 🟨,
- 8', 0 - 1, Brunes J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 19', 1 - 1, Ishak M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 37', 1 - 2, Silva J. C. ⚽,
- 41', Brunes J. 🟨,
- 45', 2 - 2, Palma L. ⚽, Gholizadeh A. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Gumny R. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
- 53', Makuch P. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
- 56', 3 - 2, Milic A. ⚽,
- 68', Struski K. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,
- 68', Mosor A. ↓, Svarnas S. ↑,
- 69', Bengtsson L. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
- 70', Kozubal A. 🟨,
- 71', Milic A. 🟨,
- 74', 3 - 3, Lopez I. ⚽,
- 78', Palma L. ↓, Walemark P. ↑,
- 78', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
- 87', Lopez I. ↓, Brusberg I. ↑,
- 87', Silva J. C. ↓, Dawidowicz P. ↑,
- 87', Kozubal A. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
- 90+1', 4 - 3, Agnero Y. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Lech Poznań
42.6% | Draw
26.5% | Raków Częstochowa
30.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+6.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lech Poznań, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-6.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Raków Częstochowa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.2 ↑
(1.95) |
3.52 ↑
(3.15) |
3.01 ↓
(3.45) |
7.2%
(12%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Raków will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 46.4% – 99%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Raków (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lech Poznań will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Lech (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Raków (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lech won 1.
- Lech is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Raków has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Lech could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Lech: Jagiello F.
(Injury)
Lisman K.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Raków: Dawidowicz P.
(Inactive)
Kochergin V.
(Knee Injury)
Otieno E.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There are questionable in Lech: Murawski R.
(Surgery)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Lech won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:29. (average 1.3:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.3:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Raków Częstochowa?
Lech Poznań has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Raków Częstochowa won against Lech Poznań?
Raków Częstochowa has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa were as follows:
24.09.2025
Raków Częstochowa
-
Lech Poznań
2:2
14.02.2025
Lech Poznań
-
Raków Częstochowa
0:1
09.08.2024
Raków Częstochowa
-
Lech Poznań
0:0
03.03.2024
Raków Częstochowa
-
Lech Poznań
4:0
28.09.2023
Lech Poznań
-
Raków Częstochowa
4:1
Latest results of Lech Poznań
Latest results of Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 46:37 | 9 | 44 |
| 2 | Zaglebie | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 40:30 | 10 | 41 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43:34 | 9 | 41 |
| 4 | Gornik Zabrze | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 36:32 | 4 | 39 |
| 5 | Wisla Plock | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 28:25 | 3 | 39 |
| 6 | Rakow | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 35:33 | 2 | 38 |
| 7 | Motor Lublin | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 35:38 | -3 | 37 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 33:29 | 4 | 36 |
| 9 | Cracovia | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 31:28 | 3 | 36 |
| 10 | GKS Katowice | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 35:35 | 0 | 36 |
| 11 | Piast Gliwice | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 32:33 | -1 | 35 |
| 12 | Lechia Gdansk | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 51:48 | 3 | 34 |
| 13 | Pogon Szczecin | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 36:40 | -4 | 34 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 42:40 | 2 | 33 |
| 15 | Legia | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 30:31 | -1 | 30 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 25:44 | -19 | 30 |
| 17 | Widzew Lodz | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 31:34 | -3 | 29 |
| 18 | Termalica B-B | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 30:48 | -18 | 22 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
