Derby County vs Leeds United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English FA Cup
Result
1:3
11/01/2026 at 07:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • FA Cup - 1/32-finals
  • Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.422.58
Ball possession
34%66%
Total shots
722
Shots on target
211
Big chances
15
Corner kicks
55
Passes
67% (175/262)87% (441/507)
Yellow cards
11
Expected goals (xG)
0.422.58
xG on target (xGOT)
0.993.04
Total shots
722
Shots on target
211
Shots off target
46
Blocked shots
15
Shots inside the box
713
Shots outside the box
09
Hit the woodwork
01
Big chances
15
Corner kicks
55
Touches in opposition box
1538
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
03
Free kicks
816
Passes
67% (175/262)87% (441/507)
Long passes
28% (17/61)60% (28/47)
Passes in final third
44% (34/77)81% (100/123)
Crosses
27% (3/11)12% (3/26)
Expected assists (xA)
0.361.21
Throw ins
1719
Fouls
168
Tackles
65% (11/17)55% (6/11)
Duels won
5052
Clearances
2613
Interceptions
58
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
81
xGOT faced
3.040.99
Goals prevented
0.04-0.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 18', Fraulo O. 🟨,
  • 33', Piroe J. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 35', 1 - 0, Brereton Diaz B. ⚽,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 3)
  • 46', Fraulo O. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
  • 46', Bornauw S. ↓, Justin J. ↑,
  • 55', 1 - 1, Gnonto W. ⚽, Bijol J. (A),
  • 59', 1 - 2, Tanaka A. ⚽,
  • 63', Travis L. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
  • 63', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
  • 73', Gruev I. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
  • 73', Salvesen L. ↓, Agyemang P. ↑,
  • 73', Clark B. ↓, Eames O. ↑,
  • 86', Gnonto W. ↓, Byram S. ↑,
  • 89', Piroe J. ↓, Stach A. ↑,
  • 89', Okafor N. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
  • 90+2', Harrison J. 🟨,
  • 90+3', 1 - 3, Justin J. ⚽, Nmecha L. (A),

Chances of winning


Derby County
16.8%		Draw
23.6%		Leeds United
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
17.8% 25.4% 56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.2% 24.6% 58.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
    •

    Derby County - Leeds United Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 5.6 ↑
    (5.27)    		 3.97 ↑
    (3.69)    		 1.59 ↓
    (1.65)    		 6%
    (6.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Derby County - Leeds United?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.5 - Derby (4.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Leeds (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Derby (2.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Users Predictions: Leeds United will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Leeds United will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 12 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 25%). Leeds (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Leeds may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Leeds is the team to beat.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:30. (average 1.3:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Leeds United were as follows:
    29.12.2024 Derby County - Leeds United 0:1
    07.12.2024 Leeds United - Derby County 2:0
    Latest results of Derby County
    04.01.2026 Derby County - Wrexham 1:2 ✺
    01.01.2026 Derby County - Middlesbrough 1:0 ✺
    29.12.2025 Leicester City - Derby County 2:1 ✺
    26.12.2025 Birmingham City - Derby County 1:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Derby County - Portsmouth 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Leeds United
    07.01.2026 Newcastle United - Leeds United 4:3 ✺
    04.01.2026 Leeds United - Manchester United 1:1 ✺
    01.01.2026 Liverpool - Leeds United 0:0 ✺
    28.12.2025 Sunderland - Leeds United 1:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Leeds United - Crystal Palace 4:1 ✺
    Draw
    Main

    1/128-finals
    1StokeBye
    4ByeCoventry
    5FulhamBye
    8ByeMiddlesbrough
    9StevenageChesterfield0 : 1
    10CreweDoncaster1 : 2
    12ByeSouthampton
    13CheltenhamBradford City1 : 0
    14BuxtonChatham2 : 1
    16ByeLeicester
    17BurnleyBye
    20ByeMillwall
    21Sheffield UtdBye
    23GainsboroughAccrington1 : 2
    24MansfieldHarrogate3 : 2
    25PortsmouthBye
    28ByeArsenal
    29PrestonBye
    31WiganHemel Hempstead2 : 1
    32SpennymoorBarrow0 : 2
    33WrexhamBye
    36ByeNottingham
    37IpswichBye
    39BlackpoolScunthorpe1 : 0
    40ReadingCarlisle2 : 3
    41HullBye
    44ByeBlackburn
    45CharltonBye
    48ByeChelsea
    49Port ValeMaldon & Tiptree5 : 1
    50BromleyBristol Rovers1 : 2
    51FleetwoodBarnet2 : 1
    52LutonForest Green4 : 3
    53Bristol CityBye
    56ByeWatford
    57ColchesterMK Dons2 : 3
    58OldhamNorthampton3 : 1
    60ByeOxford Utd
    61EvertonBye
    64ByeSunderland
    65TottenhamBye
    68ByeAston Villa
    69NewcastleBye
    72ByeBournemouth
    73Manchester CityBye
    75FC HalifaxExeter0 : 2
    76WycombePlymouth2 : 0
    77SalfordLincoln2 : 1
    78TamworthLeyton Orient0 : 1
    79RotherhamSwindon1 : 2
    80BoltonHuddersfield2 : 1
    81GrimsbyEbbsfleet3 : 1
    82WealdstoneSouthend1 : 0
    83ChelmsfordBraintree4 : 1
    84Weston-super-MareAldershot2 : 1
    85WolvesBye
    87SuttonAFC Telford2 : 1
    88South ShieldsShrewsbury1 : 3
    89LiverpoolBye
    91PeterboroughCardiff1 : 0
    92BarnsleyYork City3 : 2
    93Manchester UtdBye
    96ByeBrighton
    97Boreham WoodCrawley3 : 0
    98NewportGillingham3 : 2
    99Brackley TownNotts Co3 : 2
    100BurtonSt. Albans6 : 0
    101West HamBye
    104ByeQPR
    105SloughAltrincham2 : 1
    106MacclesfieldAFC Totton6 : 3
    108ByeCrystal Palace
    109Sheffield WedBye
    112ByeBrentford
    113TranmereStockport County1 : 3
    114Cambridge UtdChester3 : 0
    116ByeBirmingham
    117DerbyBye
    120ByeLeeds
    121NorwichBye
    123AFC WimbledonGateshead0 : 2
    124EastleighWalsall0 : 3
    125SwanseaBye
    128ByeWest Brom

    1/64-finals
    1StokeBye
    2ByeCoventry
    3FulhamBye
    4ByeMiddlesbrough
    5ChesterfieldDoncaster1 : 2
    6ByeSouthampton
    7CheltenhamBuxton6 : 2
    8ByeLeicester
    9BurnleyBye
    10ByeMillwall
    11Sheffield UtdBye
    12AccringtonMansfield2 : 3
    13PortsmouthBye
    14ByeArsenal
    15PrestonBye
    16WiganBarrow3 : 2
    17WrexhamBye
    18ByeNottingham
    19IpswichBye
    20BlackpoolCarlisle4 : 1
    21HullBye
    22ByeBlackburn
    23CharltonBye
    24ByeChelsea
    25Port ValeBristol Rovers1 : 0
    26FleetwoodLuton3 : 2
    27Bristol CityBye
    28ByeWatford
    29MK DonsOldham3 : 1
    30ByeOxford Utd
    31EvertonBye
    32ByeSunderland
    33TottenhamBye
    34ByeAston Villa
    35NewcastleBye
    36ByeBournemouth
    37Manchester CityBye
    38ExeterWycombe4 : 0
    39SalfordLeyton Orient4 : 0
    40SwindonBolton4 : 0
    41GrimsbyWealdstone4 : 0
    42ChelmsfordWeston-super-Mare0 : 2
    43WolvesBye
    44SuttonShrewsbury1 : 2
    45LiverpoolBye
    46PeterboroughBarnsley0 : 1
    47Manchester UtdBye
    48ByeBrighton
    49Boreham WoodNewport3 : 0
    50Brackley TownBurton1 : 3
    51West HamBye
    52ByeQPR
    53SloughMacclesfield1 : 3
    54ByeCrystal Palace
    55Sheffield WedBye
    56ByeBrentford
    57Stockport CountyCambridge Utd0 : 1
    58ByeBirmingham
    59DerbyBye
    60ByeLeeds
    61NorwichBye
    62GatesheadWalsall0 : 2
    63SwanseaBye
    64ByeWest Brom

    1/32-finals
    1StokeCoventry1 : 0
    2FulhamMiddlesbrough3 : 1
    3DoncasterSouthampton2 : 3
    4CheltenhamLeicester0 : 2
    5BurnleyMillwall5 : 1
    6Sheffield UtdMansfield3 : 4
    7PortsmouthArsenal1 : 4
    8PrestonWigan0 : 1
    9WrexhamNottingham4 : 3
    10IpswichBlackpool2 : 1
    11HullBlackburn1 : 0
    12CharltonChelsea1 : 5
    13Port ValeFleetwood1 : 0
    14Bristol CityWatford5 : 1
    15MK DonsOxford Utd1 : 2
    16EvertonSunderland1 : 2
    17TottenhamAston Villa1 : 2
    18NewcastleBournemouth4 : 3
    19Manchester CityExeter10 : 1
    20SalfordSwindon3 : 2
    21GrimsbyWeston-super-Mare3 : 2
    22WolvesShrewsbury6 : 1
    23LiverpoolBarnsley4 : 1
    24Manchester UtdBrighton1 : 2
    25Boreham WoodBurton0 : 5
    26West HamQPR2 : 1
    27MacclesfieldCrystal Palace2 : 1
    28Sheffield WedBrentford0 : 2
    29Cambridge UtdBirmingham2 : 3
    30DerbyLeeds1 : 3
    31NorwichWalsall5 : 1
    32SwanseaWest Brom2 : 3

    1/16-finals
    1StokeFulham1 : 2
    2SouthamptonLeicester2 : 1
    3BurnleyMansfield1 : 2
    4ArsenalWigan4 : 0
    5WrexhamIpswich1 : 0
    6HullChelsea0 : 4
    7Port ValeBristol City1 : 0
    8Oxford UtdSunderland0 : 1
    9Aston VillaNewcastle1 : 3
    10Manchester CitySalford2 : 0
    11GrimsbyWolves0 : 1
    12LiverpoolBrighton3 : 0
    13BurtonWest Ham0 : 1
    14MacclesfieldBrentford0 : 1
    15BirminghamLeeds1 : 2
    16NorwichWest Brom3 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1FulhamSouthampton0 : 1
    2MansfieldArsenal1 : 2
    3WrexhamChelsea2 : 4
    4Port ValeSunderland1 : 0
    5NewcastleManchester City1 : 3
    6WolvesLiverpool1 : 3
    7West HamBrentford3 : 2
    8LeedsNorwich3 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1SouthamptonArsenal
    2ChelseaPort Vale
    3Manchester CityLiverpool
    4West HamLeeds
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