Derby County vs Leeds United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English FA Cup
Result
1:3
11/01/2026 at 07:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • FA Cup - 1/32-finals
  • Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.422.58
Ball possession
34%66%
Total shots
722
Shots on target
211
Big chances
15
Corner kicks
55
Passes
67% (175/262)87% (441/507)
Yellow cards
11
Expected goals (xG)
0.422.58
xG on target (xGOT)
0.993.04
Total shots
722
Shots on target
211
Shots off target
46
Blocked shots
15
Shots inside the box
713
Shots outside the box
09
Hit the woodwork
01
Big chances
15
Corner kicks
55
Touches in opposition box
1538
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
03
Free kicks
816
Passes
67% (175/262)87% (441/507)
Long passes
28% (17/61)60% (28/47)
Passes in final third
44% (34/77)81% (100/123)
Crosses
27% (3/11)12% (3/26)
Expected assists (xA)
0.361.21
Throw ins
1719
Fouls
168
Tackles
65% (11/17)55% (6/11)
Duels won
5052
Clearances
2613
Interceptions
58
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
81
xGOT faced
3.040.99
Goals prevented
0.04-0.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 18', Fraulo O. 🟨,
  • 33', Piroe J. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 35', 1 - 0, Brereton Diaz B. ⚽,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 3)
  • 46', Fraulo O. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
  • 46', Bornauw S. ↓, Justin J. ↑,
  • 55', 1 - 1, Gnonto W. ⚽, Bijol J. (A),
  • 59', 1 - 2, Tanaka A. ⚽,
  • 63', Travis L. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
  • 63', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
  • 73', Gruev I. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
  • 73', Salvesen L. ↓, Agyemang P. ↑,
  • 73', Clark B. ↓, Eames O. ↑,
  • 86', Gnonto W. ↓, Byram S. ↑,
  • 89', Piroe J. ↓, Stach A. ↑,
  • 89', Okafor N. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
  • 90+2', Harrison J. 🟨,
  • 90+3', 1 - 3, Justin J. ⚽, Nmecha L. (A),

Chances of winning


Derby County
16.8%		Draw
23.6%		Leeds United
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
17.8% 25.4% 56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.2% 24.6% 58.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
    •

    Derby County - Leeds United Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 5.6 ↑
    (5.27)    		 3.97 ↑
    (3.69)    		 1.59 ↓
    (1.65)    		 6%
    (6.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Derby County - Leeds United?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -0.5 - Derby (4.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Leeds (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Derby (2.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Users Predictions: Leeds United will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Leeds United will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 25%). Leeds (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Leeds may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Leeds is the team to beat.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:30. (average 1.3:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Leeds United were as follows:
    29.12.2024 Derby County - Leeds United 0:1
    07.12.2024 Leeds United - Derby County 2:0
    Latest results of Derby County
    04.01.2026 Derby County - Wrexham 1:2 ✺
    01.01.2026 Derby County - Middlesbrough 1:0 ✺
    29.12.2025 Leicester City - Derby County 2:1 ✺
    26.12.2025 Birmingham City - Derby County 1:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Derby County - Portsmouth 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Leeds United
    07.01.2026 Newcastle United - Leeds United 4:3 ✺
    04.01.2026 Leeds United - Manchester United 1:1 ✺
    01.01.2026 Liverpool - Leeds United 0:0 ✺
    28.12.2025 Sunderland - Leeds United 1:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Leeds United - Crystal Palace 4:1 ✺
    Draw
    Main

    1/128-finals
    1WrexhamBye
    4ByeNottingham
    5IpswichBye
    7BlackpoolScunthorpe1 : 0
    8ReadingCarlisle2 : 3
    9HullBye
    12ByeBlackburn
    13CharltonBye
    16ByeChelsea
    17Port ValeMaldon & Tiptree5 : 1
    18BromleyBristol Rovers1 : 2
    19FleetwoodBarnet2 : 1
    20LutonForest Green4 : 3
    21Bristol CityBye
    24ByeWatford
    25ColchesterMK Dons2 : 3
    26OldhamNorthampton3 : 1
    28ByeOxford Utd
    29EvertonBye
    32ByeSunderland
    33Boreham WoodCrawley3 : 0
    34NewportGillingham3 : 2
    35Brackley TownNotts Co3 : 2
    36BurtonSt. Albans6 : 0
    37West HamBye
    40ByeQPR
    41SloughAltrincham2 : 1
    42MacclesfieldAFC Totton6 : 3
    44ByeCrystal Palace
    45Sheffield WedBye
    48ByeBrentford
    49TranmereStockport County1 : 3
    50Cambridge UtdChester3 : 0
    52ByeBirmingham
    53DerbyBye
    56ByeLeeds
    57NorwichBye
    59AFC WimbledonGateshead0 : 2
    60EastleighWalsall0 : 3
    61SwanseaBye
    64ByeWest Brom
    65TottenhamBye
    68ByeAston Villa
    69NewcastleBye
    72ByeBournemouth
    73Manchester CityBye
    75FC HalifaxExeter0 : 2
    76WycombePlymouth2 : 0
    77SalfordLincoln2 : 1
    78TamworthLeyton Orient0 : 1
    79RotherhamSwindon1 : 2
    80BoltonHuddersfield2 : 1
    81GrimsbyEbbsfleet3 : 1
    82WealdstoneSouthend1 : 0
    83ChelmsfordBraintree4 : 1
    84Weston-super-MareAldershot2 : 1
    85WolvesBye
    87SuttonAFC Telford2 : 1
    88South ShieldsShrewsbury1 : 3
    89LiverpoolBye
    91PeterboroughCardiff1 : 0
    92BarnsleyYork City3 : 2
    93Manchester UtdBye
    96ByeBrighton
    97StokeBye
    100ByeCoventry
    101FulhamBye
    104ByeMiddlesbrough
    105StevenageChesterfield0 : 1
    106CreweDoncaster1 : 2
    108ByeSouthampton
    109CheltenhamBradford City1 : 0
    110BuxtonChatham2 : 1
    112ByeLeicester
    113BurnleyBye
    116ByeMillwall
    117Sheffield UtdBye
    119GainsboroughAccrington1 : 2
    120MansfieldHarrogate3 : 2
    121PortsmouthBye
    124ByeArsenal
    125PrestonBye
    127WiganHemel Hempstead2 : 1
    128SpennymoorBarrow0 : 2

    1/64-finals
    1WrexhamBye
    2ByeNottingham
    3IpswichBye
    4BlackpoolCarlisle4 : 1
    5HullBye
    6ByeBlackburn
    7CharltonBye
    8ByeChelsea
    9Port ValeBristol Rovers1 : 0
    10FleetwoodLuton3 : 2
    11Bristol CityBye
    12ByeWatford
    13MK DonsOldham3 : 1
    14ByeOxford Utd
    15EvertonBye
    16ByeSunderland
    17Boreham WoodNewport3 : 0
    18Brackley TownBurton1 : 3
    19West HamBye
    20ByeQPR
    21SloughMacclesfield1 : 3
    22ByeCrystal Palace
    23Sheffield WedBye
    24ByeBrentford
    25Stockport CountyCambridge Utd0 : 1
    26ByeBirmingham
    27DerbyBye
    28ByeLeeds
    29NorwichBye
    30GatesheadWalsall0 : 2
    31SwanseaBye
    32ByeWest Brom
    33TottenhamBye
    34ByeAston Villa
    35NewcastleBye
    36ByeBournemouth
    37Manchester CityBye
    38ExeterWycombe4 : 0
    39SalfordLeyton Orient4 : 0
    40SwindonBolton4 : 0
    41GrimsbyWealdstone4 : 0
    42ChelmsfordWeston-super-Mare0 : 2
    43WolvesBye
    44SuttonShrewsbury1 : 2
    45LiverpoolBye
    46PeterboroughBarnsley0 : 1
    47Manchester UtdBye
    48ByeBrighton
    49StokeBye
    50ByeCoventry
    51FulhamBye
    52ByeMiddlesbrough
    53ChesterfieldDoncaster1 : 2
    54ByeSouthampton
    55CheltenhamBuxton6 : 2
    56ByeLeicester
    57BurnleyBye
    58ByeMillwall
    59Sheffield UtdBye
    60AccringtonMansfield2 : 3
    61PortsmouthBye
    62ByeArsenal
    63PrestonBye
    64WiganBarrow3 : 2

    1/32-finals
    1WrexhamNottingham4 : 3
    2IpswichBlackpool2 : 1
    3HullBlackburn1 : 0
    4CharltonChelsea1 : 5
    5Port ValeFleetwood1 : 0
    6Bristol CityWatford5 : 1
    7MK DonsOxford Utd1 : 2
    8EvertonSunderland1 : 2
    9Boreham WoodBurton0 : 5
    10West HamQPR2 : 1
    11MacclesfieldCrystal Palace2 : 1
    12Sheffield WedBrentford0 : 2
    13Cambridge UtdBirmingham2 : 3
    14DerbyLeeds1 : 3
    15NorwichWalsall5 : 1
    16SwanseaWest Brom2 : 3
    17TottenhamAston Villa1 : 2
    18NewcastleBournemouth4 : 3
    19Manchester CityExeter10 : 1
    20SalfordSwindon3 : 2
    21GrimsbyWeston-super-Mare3 : 2
    22WolvesShrewsbury6 : 1
    23LiverpoolBarnsley4 : 1
    24Manchester UtdBrighton1 : 2
    25StokeCoventry1 : 0
    26FulhamMiddlesbrough3 : 1
    27DoncasterSouthampton2 : 3
    28CheltenhamLeicester0 : 2
    29BurnleyMillwall5 : 1
    30Sheffield UtdMansfield3 : 4
    31PortsmouthArsenal1 : 4
    32PrestonWigan0 : 1

    1/16-finals
    1WrexhamIpswich1 : 0
    2HullChelsea0 : 4
    3Port ValeBristol City1 : 0
    4Oxford UtdSunderland0 : 1
    5BurtonWest Ham0 : 1
    6MacclesfieldBrentford0 : 1
    7BirminghamLeeds1 : 2
    8NorwichWest Brom3 : 1
    9Aston VillaNewcastle1 : 3
    10Manchester CitySalford2 : 0
    11GrimsbyWolves0 : 1
    12LiverpoolBrighton3 : 0
    13StokeFulham1 : 2
    14SouthamptonLeicester2 : 1
    15BurnleyMansfield1 : 2
    16ArsenalWigan4 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1WrexhamChelsea2 : 4
    2Port ValeSunderland1 : 0
    3West HamBrentford3 : 2
    4LeedsNorwich3 : 0
    5NewcastleManchester City1 : 3
    6WolvesLiverpool1 : 3
    7FulhamSouthampton0 : 1
    8MansfieldArsenal1 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1ChelseaPort Vale7 : 0
    2West HamLeeds2 : 3
    3Manchester CityLiverpool4 : 0
    4SouthamptonArsenal2 : 1

    Semi-finals
    1ChelseaLeeds
    2Manchester CitySouthampton
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