Derby County vs Leeds United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English FA Cup
Result
1:3
11/01/2026 at 07:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • FA Cup - 1/32-finals
  • Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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hong-kongHong-kongM Plus Live
hungaryHungarySpiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
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turkeyTurkeyTabii Spor 1, Tabii
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomBBC Radio 5 Live, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.422.58
Ball possession
34%66%
Total shots
722
Shots on target
211
Big chances
15
Corner kicks
55
Passes
67% (175/262)87% (441/507)
Yellow cards
11
Expected goals (xG)
0.422.58
xG on target (xGOT)
0.993.04
Total shots
722
Shots on target
211
Shots off target
46
Blocked shots
15
Shots inside the box
713
Shots outside the box
09
Hit the woodwork
01
Big chances
15
Corner kicks
55
Touches in opposition box
1538
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
03
Free kicks
816
Passes
67% (175/262)87% (441/507)
Long passes
28% (17/61)60% (28/47)
Passes in final third
44% (34/77)81% (100/123)
Crosses
27% (3/11)12% (3/26)
Expected assists (xA)
0.361.21
Throw ins
1719
Fouls
168
Tackles
65% (11/17)55% (6/11)
Duels won
5052
Clearances
2613
Interceptions
58
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
81
xGOT faced
3.040.99
Goals prevented
0.04-0.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 18', Fraulo O. 🟨,
  • 33', Piroe J. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 35', 1 - 0, Brereton Diaz B. ⚽,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 3)
  • 46', Fraulo O. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
  • 46', Bornauw S. ↓, Justin J. ↑,
  • 55', 1 - 1, Gnonto W. ⚽, Bijol J. (A),
  • 59', 1 - 2, Tanaka A. ⚽,
  • 63', Travis L. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
  • 63', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
  • 73', Gruev I. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
  • 73', Salvesen L. ↓, Agyemang P. ↑,
  • 73', Clark B. ↓, Eames O. ↑,
  • 86', Gnonto W. ↓, Byram S. ↑,
  • 89', Piroe J. ↓, Stach A. ↑,
  • 89', Okafor N. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
  • 90+2', Harrison J. 🟨,
  • 90+3', 1 - 3, Justin J. ⚽, Nmecha L. (A),

Chances of winning


Derby County
16.8%		Draw
23.6%		Leeds United
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
17.8% 25.4% 56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.2% 24.6% 58.7%

Derby County - Leeds United Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 5.6 ↑
(5.27)		 3.97 ↑
(3.69)		 1.59 ↓
(1.65)		 6%
(6.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Derby County - Leeds United?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Leeds (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.5 - Derby (4.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Leeds (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Derby (2.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Leeds United will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Leeds (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Leeds may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Leeds is the team to beat.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:30. (average 1.3:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Leeds United were as follows:
    29.12.2024 Derby County - Leeds United 0:1
    07.12.2024 Leeds United - Derby County 2:0
    Latest results of Derby County
    04.01.2026 Derby County - Wrexham 1:2 ✺
    01.01.2026 Derby County - Middlesbrough 1:0 ✺
    29.12.2025 Leicester City - Derby County 2:1 ✺
    26.12.2025 Birmingham City - Derby County 1:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Derby County - Portsmouth 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Leeds United
    07.01.2026 Newcastle United - Leeds United 4:3 ✺
    04.01.2026 Leeds United - Manchester United 1:1 ✺
    01.01.2026 Liverpool - Leeds United 0:0 ✺
    28.12.2025 Sunderland - Leeds United 1:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Leeds United - Crystal Palace 4:1 ✺
    Draw
    Main

    1/128-finals
    1LiverpoolBye
    3PeterboroughCardiff1 : 0
    4BarnsleyYork City3 : 2
    5Manchester UtdBye
    8ByeBrighton
    9StokeBye
    12ByeCoventry
    13FulhamBye
    16ByeMiddlesbrough
    17ColchesterMK Dons2 : 3
    18OldhamNorthampton3 : 1
    20ByeOxford Utd
    21EvertonBye
    24ByeSunderland
    25StevenageChesterfield0 : 1
    26CreweDoncaster1 : 2
    28ByeSouthampton
    29CheltenhamBradford City1 : 0
    30BuxtonChatham2 : 1
    32ByeLeicester
    33WrexhamBye
    36ByeNottingham
    37IpswichBye
    39BlackpoolScunthorpe1 : 0
    40ReadingCarlisle2 : 3
    41PortsmouthBye
    44ByeArsenal
    45PrestonBye
    47WiganHemel Hempstead2 : 1
    48SpennymoorBarrow0 : 2
    49HullBye
    52ByeBlackburn
    53CharltonBye
    56ByeChelsea
    57Boreham WoodCrawley3 : 0
    58NewportGillingham3 : 2
    59Brackley TownNotts Co3 : 2
    60BurtonSt. Albans6 : 0
    61West HamBye
    64ByeQPR
    65BurnleyBye
    68ByeMillwall
    69Sheffield UtdBye
    71GainsboroughAccrington1 : 2
    72MansfieldHarrogate3 : 2
    73NorwichBye
    75AFC WimbledonGateshead0 : 2
    76EastleighWalsall0 : 3
    77SwanseaBye
    80ByeWest Brom
    81Port ValeMaldon & Tiptree5 : 1
    82BromleyBristol Rovers1 : 2
    83FleetwoodBarnet2 : 1
    84LutonForest Green4 : 3
    85Bristol CityBye
    88ByeWatford
    89GrimsbyEbbsfleet3 : 1
    90WealdstoneSouthend1 : 0
    91ChelmsfordBraintree4 : 1
    92Weston-super-MareAldershot2 : 1
    93WolvesBye
    95SuttonAFC Telford2 : 1
    96South ShieldsShrewsbury1 : 3
    97TottenhamBye
    100ByeAston Villa
    101NewcastleBye
    104ByeBournemouth
    105Manchester CityBye
    107FC HalifaxExeter0 : 2
    108WycombePlymouth2 : 0
    109SalfordLincoln2 : 1
    110TamworthLeyton Orient0 : 1
    111RotherhamSwindon1 : 2
    112BoltonHuddersfield2 : 1
    113SloughAltrincham2 : 1
    114MacclesfieldAFC Totton6 : 3
    116ByeCrystal Palace
    117Sheffield WedBye
    120ByeBrentford
    121TranmereStockport County1 : 3
    122Cambridge UtdChester3 : 0
    124ByeBirmingham
    125DerbyBye
    128ByeLeeds

    1/64-finals
    1LiverpoolBye
    2PeterboroughBarnsley0 : 1
    3Manchester UtdBye
    4ByeBrighton
    5StokeBye
    6ByeCoventry
    7FulhamBye
    8ByeMiddlesbrough
    9MK DonsOldham3 : 1
    10ByeOxford Utd
    11EvertonBye
    12ByeSunderland
    13ChesterfieldDoncaster1 : 2
    14ByeSouthampton
    15CheltenhamBuxton6 : 2
    16ByeLeicester
    17WrexhamBye
    18ByeNottingham
    19IpswichBye
    20BlackpoolCarlisle4 : 1
    21PortsmouthBye
    22ByeArsenal
    23PrestonBye
    24WiganBarrow3 : 2
    25HullBye
    26ByeBlackburn
    27CharltonBye
    28ByeChelsea
    29Boreham WoodNewport3 : 0
    30Brackley TownBurton1 : 3
    31West HamBye
    32ByeQPR
    33BurnleyBye
    34ByeMillwall
    35Sheffield UtdBye
    36AccringtonMansfield2 : 3
    37NorwichBye
    38GatesheadWalsall0 : 2
    39SwanseaBye
    40ByeWest Brom
    41Port ValeBristol Rovers1 : 0
    42FleetwoodLuton3 : 2
    43Bristol CityBye
    44ByeWatford
    45GrimsbyWealdstone4 : 0
    46ChelmsfordWeston-super-Mare0 : 2
    47WolvesBye
    48SuttonShrewsbury1 : 2
    49TottenhamBye
    50ByeAston Villa
    51NewcastleBye
    52ByeBournemouth
    53Manchester CityBye
    54ExeterWycombe4 : 0
    55SalfordLeyton Orient4 : 0
    56SwindonBolton4 : 0
    57SloughMacclesfield1 : 3
    58ByeCrystal Palace
    59Sheffield WedBye
    60ByeBrentford
    61Stockport CountyCambridge Utd0 : 1
    62ByeBirmingham
    63DerbyBye
    64ByeLeeds

    1/32-finals
    1LiverpoolBarnsley4 : 1
    2Manchester UtdBrighton1 : 2
    3StokeCoventry1 : 0
    4FulhamMiddlesbrough3 : 1
    5MK DonsOxford Utd1 : 2
    6EvertonSunderland1 : 2
    7DoncasterSouthampton2 : 3
    8CheltenhamLeicester0 : 2
    9WrexhamNottingham4 : 3
    10IpswichBlackpool2 : 1
    11PortsmouthArsenal1 : 4
    12PrestonWigan0 : 1
    13HullBlackburn1 : 0
    14CharltonChelsea1 : 5
    15Boreham WoodBurton0 : 5
    16West HamQPR2 : 1
    17BurnleyMillwall5 : 1
    18Sheffield UtdMansfield3 : 4
    19NorwichWalsall5 : 1
    20SwanseaWest Brom2 : 3
    21Port ValeFleetwood1 : 0
    22Bristol CityWatford5 : 1
    23GrimsbyWeston-super-Mare3 : 2
    24WolvesShrewsbury6 : 1
    25TottenhamAston Villa1 : 2
    26NewcastleBournemouth4 : 3
    27Manchester CityExeter10 : 1
    28SalfordSwindon3 : 2
    29MacclesfieldCrystal Palace2 : 1
    30Sheffield WedBrentford0 : 2
    31Cambridge UtdBirmingham2 : 3
    32DerbyLeeds1 : 3

    1/16-finals
    1LiverpoolBrighton
    2StokeFulham
    3Oxford UtdSunderland
    4SouthamptonLeicester
    5WrexhamIpswich
    6ArsenalWigan
    7HullChelsea
    8BurtonWest Ham
    9BurnleyMansfield
    10NorwichWest Brom
    11Port ValeBristol City
    12GrimsbyWolves
    13Aston VillaNewcastle
    14Manchester CitySalford
    15MacclesfieldBrentford
    16BirminghamLeeds
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