Result
2:0
29/10/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 10
- Referee: Kherradji A. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1 |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Italy | Ligue 1+ |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 5 |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 9 |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | On Golf |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.35 | 1.00 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (392/454) | 88% (458/523) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.35 | 1.00 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.21 | 0.21 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (392/454) | 88% (458/523) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (19/61) | 51% (26/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (74/99) | 77% (109/141) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (4/13) | 23% (5/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 1.46 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (15/19) | 60% (9/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.21 | 3.21 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.21 | 1.21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 13', Toure A. 🟨,
- 45+3', Sima A. 🟨,
- 45+6', Machado D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Sima A. ↓, Guilavogui M. ↑,
- 46', Edouard O. ↓, Said W. ↑,
- 63', Machado D. ↓, Aguilar R. ↑,
- 68', Hein G. 🟨,
- 81', Tsitaishvili G. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
- 81', Sabaly C. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
- 82', Deminguet J. ↓, Guerti I. ↑,
- 87', 1 - 0, Hein G. (Pen),
- 88', Gradit J. ↓, Bulatovic A. ↑,
- 88', Thauvin F. ↓, Fofana R. ↑,
- 90+1', 2 - 0, Hein G. ⚽, Sane I. (A),
- 90+2', Hein G. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Metz
18.3% | Draw
22% | Lens
59.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lens's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-5.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Metz - Lens Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.2 ↑
(4.65) |
4.28 ↑
(3.61) |
1.65 ↓
(1.77) |
3.3%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Metz - Lens?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +2 - Metz (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Lens (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - draw (votes: 0 - 0%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Lens will win
(36 of 40 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 99.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lens will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Metz (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Lens (votes: 10 - 90.9%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 2.
- Metz is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Lens is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Metz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Lens is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J.
(Knee Injury)
Mbaye M.
(Foot Injury)
Mboula U.
(Hamstring Injury)
Sane S.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Lens: Antonio K.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Metz: Sy P.
(Injury)
Traore B.
(Illness)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Metz won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:3. (average 1.3:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Metz won against Lens?
Metz has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lens won against Metz?
Lens has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Metz - Lens were as follows:
26.07.2025
Lens
-
Metz
2:1
12.04.2024
Metz
-
Lens
2:1
16.09.2023
Lens
-
Metz
0:1
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 52:19 | 33 | 54 |
| 2 | Lens | 23 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 44:20 | 24 | 52 |
| 3 | Lyon | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 37:23 | 14 | 45 |
| 4 | Marseille | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 48:31 | 17 | 40 |
| 5 | Lille | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 36:31 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Rennes | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 37:35 | 2 | 37 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 39:30 | 9 | 34 |
| 8 | Monaco | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 38:36 | 2 | 34 |
| 9 | Lorient | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 32:36 | -4 | 32 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 33:27 | 6 | 31 |
| 11 | Brest | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 31:34 | -3 | 30 |
| 12 | Angers | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 22:28 | -6 | 29 |
| 13 | Le Havre | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 20:29 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Nice | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 30:43 | -13 | 24 |
| 15 | Paris FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27:40 | -13 | 23 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17:33 | -16 | 17 |
| 17 | Nantes | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 22:40 | -18 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 23 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22:52 | -30 | 13 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
