Ceuta vs Leonesa – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Spanish LaLiga2
Result
3:1
26/01/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • LaLiga2 - Round 23
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN
brazilBrazilDisney+
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 2
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch
greeceGreeceNova Sports Start
italyItalyDAZN Italia
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
peruPeruDisney+
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 1
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 10, Arena Sport 1x2
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 2
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
spainSpainDAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+
thailandThailandAIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
2.670.50
Ball possession
50%50%
Total shots
1814
Shots on target
106
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
58
Passes
80% (309/386)78% (301/384)
Yellow cards
42
Red cards
01
Expected goals (xG)
2.670.50
xG on target (xGOT)
3.830.95
Total shots
1814
Shots on target
106
Shots off target
35
Blocked shots
53
Shots inside the box
1310
Shots outside the box
54
Hit the woodwork
00
Headed goals
10
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
58
Touches in opposition box
2724
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
12
Free kicks
1515
Passes
80% (309/386)78% (301/384)
Long passes
37% (15/41)42% (22/53)
Passes in final third
74% (87/118)66% (67/102)
Crosses
43% (9/21)13% (2/15)
Expected assists (xA)
2.770.38
Throw ins
1324
Fouls
1515
Tackles
59% (13/22)57% (4/7)
Duels won
5035
Clearances
2617
Interceptions
1810
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper saves
57
xGOT faced
0.953.83
Goals prevented
-0.050.83

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 27', Calero I. 🟨,
  • 32', 0 - 1, Tresaco R. ⚽,
  • 38', 1 - 1, Fernandez Sanchez M. ⚽, Youness (A),
  • 42', 2 - 1, Campana J. ⚽, Zalazar K. (A),
  • 45', Ribeiro L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 50', Zalazar K. 🟨,
  • 55', Fernandez Sanchez M. 🟨,
  • 62', Collado D. ↓, Sobrino R. ↑,
  • 62', Diallo Selu M. ↓, Maestre S. ↑,
  • 65', Kone K. ↓, de la Fuente K. ↑,
  • 66', Hernandez C. 🟨,
  • 69', Calero I. ↓, Garcia V. ↑,
  • 69', Tresaco R. ↓, Moreno V. ↑,
  • 70', Zalazar K. ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
  • 71', Campana J. ↓, Illesca M. ↑,
  • 77', Ribeiro L. 🟥,
  • 82', Fernandez Sanchez M. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
  • 83', Ahmed A. ↓, Domenech M. ↑,
  • 83', Ojeda T. ↓, Justo M. ↑,
  • 88', Illesca M. 🟨,
  • 90+5', 3 - 1, Bodiger Y. ⚽, Sanchez S. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Ceuta
43.6%		Draw
28.9%		Leonesa
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.8% 27.7% 24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7% 27.8% 24.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)
  • Leonesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (-2.7%)
    •

    Ceuta - Leonesa Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.16 ↑
    (1.98)    		 3.24 ↓
    (3.42)    		 3.42 ↓
    (3.85)    		 6.5%
    (5.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Ceuta - Leonesa?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Ceuta will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Leonesa will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Ceuta: 46.4% – 99%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .
    • O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DC - Leonesa (1.71) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Ceuta (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Ceuta (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Ceuta (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.25 - Ceuta (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Ceuta (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DNB - Ceuta (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ceuta will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Ceuta (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Leonesa (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 18).
    • In recent matches, Ceuta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Leonesa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Ceuta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Ceuta is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Ceuta: Jamelli (Injury) Sanchez M. (Injury)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceuta won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.8:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Ceuta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 3:2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Ceuta - Leonesa were as follows:
    25.10.2025 Leonesa - Ceuta 0:1
    31.05.2025 Ceuta - Leonesa 4:3
    28.05.2025 Leonesa - Ceuta 2:2
    22.01.2023 Ceuta - Leonesa 2:1
    04.09.2022 Leonesa - Ceuta 2:0
    Latest results of Ceuta
    17.01.2026 Ceuta - Valladolid 0:3 ✺
    11.01.2026 Málaga - Ceuta 2:1 ✺
    04.01.2026 Ceuta - FC Andorra 2:1 ✺
    21.12.2025 Real Sociedad B - Ceuta 1:3 ✺
    14.12.2025 Ceuta - Las Palmas 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Leonesa
    17.01.2026 Leonesa - Sporting de Gijón 2:4 ✺
    13.01.2026 Leonesa - Athletic Bilbao 3:4 ✺
    10.01.2026 FC Andorra - Leonesa 1:1 ✺
    03.01.2026 Leonesa - Real Sociedad B 1:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Las Palmas - Leonesa 4:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga2 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Racing Santander28165756:362053
    2Castellon28147746:291749
    3Almeria28147753:401349
    4Dep. La Coruna28147744:311349
    5Malaga28145941:311047
    6Las Palmas281112534:221245
    7Ceuta281351036:39-344
    8Burgos CF28127930:26443
    9Gijon281261038:36242
    10Cordoba28118938:37141
    11Eibar281081031:30138
    12Andorra28981135:40-535
    13Albacete28981133:39-635
    14Cadiz CF28981129:35-635
    15Leganes288101029:28134
    16Real Sociedad B28971238:39-134
    17Granada CF287111032:33-132
    18Valladolid28881229:38-932
    19Huesca28861426:37-1130
    20Cultural Leonesa28761527:44-1727
    21Mirandes28661628:45-1724
    22Zaragoza28591423:41-1824

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          Relegation

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