Result
3:1
28/04/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 10
- Referee: Diaz A. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.17 | 2.06 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (230/332) | 72% (248/345) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.17 | 2.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.91 | 1.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (230/332) | 72% (248/345) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (30/80) | 40% (27/68) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (67/107) | 58% (85/147) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (6/15) | 25% (6/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.35 | 1.50 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (10/18) | 50% (9/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 39 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.06 | 1.91 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.03 | -1.09 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 16', Palacios B. 🟨,
- 19', 1 - 0, Caicedo N. ⚽, Montano J. (A),
- 21', Caicedo E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Castillo Saa J. L. ↓, Jhon Chancellor ↑,
- 51', 2 - 0, Caicedo E. ⚽, Arboleda C. (A),
- 53', 3 - 0, Caicedo E. ⚽, Arboleda C. (A),
- 62', Cacciabue J. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
- 62', Londono A. ↓, Clavijo E. ↑,
- 68', Caicedo E. ↓, Verges J. ↑,
- 69', Ayovi W. ↓, Quinonez Y. ↑,
- 70', 3 - 1, Palacios B. ⚽, Diaz I. (A),
- 83', Moreno L. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
- 83', Palacios B. ↓, Sanchez I. ↑,
- 85', Bolanos D. ↓, Bardales W. ↑,
- 85', Caicedo N. ↓, Quinonez A. ↑,
- 90+5', Montano J. ↓, Humanante J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Libertad Loja
30.2% | Draw
28.1% | Universidad Católica del Ecuador
41.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Universidad Católica del Ecuador might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-5.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Libertad Loja that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+6.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Universidad Católica del Ecuador could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.06 ↓
(3.64) |
3.3 ↓
(3.38) |
2.22 ↑
(1.98) |
8%
(7.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Uni Católica will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni Católica: 30.4% – 86.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
- Recent matches Libertad is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- Uni Católica is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
- Uni Católica could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
- Recently Uni Católica have a series of home games.
- Uni Católica will have a small advantage in this match.
- Last 4 head-to-head matches Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 1:1).
- Including matches at home between the teams Libertad won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 1:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Loja won against Universidad Católica del Ecuador?
Libertad Loja has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Universidad Católica del Ecuador won against Libertad Loja?
Universidad Católica del Ecuador has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador were as follows:
10.08.2024
Universidad Católica del Ecuador
-
Libertad Loja
1:2
11.03.2024
Libertad Loja
-
Universidad Católica del Ecuador
0:1
06.11.2023
Universidad Católica del Ecuador
-
Libertad Loja
0:0
26.05.2023
Libertad Loja
-
Universidad Católica del Ecuador
2:2
Latest results of Libertad Loja
Latest results of Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 23 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 43:19 | 24 | 49 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 35:26 | 9 | 41 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 38:21 | 17 | 40 |
| 4 | Orense | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 25:26 | -1 | 37 |
| 5 | Aucas | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 30:27 | 3 | 35 |
| 6 | Dep. Cuenca | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 27:24 | 3 | 35 |
| 7 | Libertad | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33:28 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | U. Catolica | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 38:29 | 9 | 31 |
| 9 | Emelec | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 20:26 | -6 | 28 |
| 10 | Delfin | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21:31 | -10 | 26 |
| 11 | EL Nacional | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 26:33 | -7 | 25 |
| 12 | Vinotinto | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 26:30 | -4 | 23 |
| 13 | Macara | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 21:26 | -5 | 23 |
| 14 | Manta | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 29:38 | -9 | 23 |
| 15 | Tecnico U | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 19 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 24:39 | -15 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
