Louisville City vs Minnesota United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

07/05/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Lynn Family Stadium (Louisville, KY).

US Open Cup - 1/16-finals

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.72	0.43
Ball Possession
50%	50%
Total shots
15	6
Shots on target
2	2
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
10	4
Passes
75% (268/357)	75% (293/391)
Yellow Cards
4	1
Expected Goals (xG)
0.72	0.43
xG on target (xGOT)
0.09	0.47
Total shots
15	6
Shots on target
2	2
Shots off target
8	3
Blocked Shots
5	1
Shots inside the Box
11	5
Shots outside the Box
4	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
10	4
Touches in opposition box
24	19
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	0
Free Kicks
7	16
Passes
75% (268/357)	75% (293/391)
Long passes
44% (27/62)	30% (25/83)
Passes in final third
63% (78/123)	60% (78/131)
Crosses
21% (8/38)	18% (3/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.31	0.42
Throw-ins
24	22
Fouls
16	7
Tackles
40% (4/10)	64% (7/11)
Duels won
51	56
Clearances
27	44
Interceptions
11	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	2
xGOT faced
0.47	0.09
Goals prevented
-0.53	0.09

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Adams K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Davila E. ↓, Lambert K. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Randell A. ⚽, Jeong S. (A),
66', Dia A. ↓, Morris J. ↑,
66', Perez A. ↓, Wilson J. ↑,
67', Randell A. ↓, Mesanvi L. ↑,
67', Gressel J. ↓, Fischer B. ↑,
73', Morris J. 🟨,
76', Morris J. ↓, Cano I. ↑,
79', Shashoua S. ↓, Niang B. ↑,
84', Lambert K. 🟨,
85', Perez E. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
90+2', Jeong S. ↓, Hille L. ↑,
90+4', Fischer B. 🟨,
90+5', McFadden A. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Louisville City
41.3%

Draw
27.4%

Minnesota United
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

27.4%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

28.9%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Louisville City's performance.

Minnesota United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Minnesota United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Louisville City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Minnesota United than the current prediction. (+15.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Minnesota United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Louisville City - Minnesota United Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (3.18)	3.41 ↑ (3.31)	2.93 ↑ (2.06)	6.4% (10.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

Preview Facts

Louisville City has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Minnesota has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

How many head-to-head matches has Louisville City won against Minnesota United?

Louisville City has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Minnesota United won against Louisville City?

Minnesota United has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Louisville City - Minnesota United were as follows:

Latest results of Louisville City

01.05.2025 Louisville City - Lexington 2:0 ✺

26.04.2025 Louisville City - Richmond Kickers 4:1 ✺

19.04.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies - Louisville City 1:2 ✺

15.04.2025 Louisville City - Loudoun United 2:1 ✺

05.04.2025 Sacramento Republic - Louisville City 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Minnesota United

03.05.2025 Austin FC - Minnesota United 0:3 ✺

27.04.2025 Minnesota United - Vancouver Whitecaps 1:3 ✺

19.04.2025 Minnesota United - FC Dallas 0:0 ✺

12.04.2025 Toronto FC - Minnesota United 0:0 ✺

06.04.2025 New York City - Minnesota United 1:2 ✺

Draw

2025

1/128-finals

1	Louisville City	Bye
3	West Chester Utd	Loudoun	2 : 3
4	Richmond Kickers	Virginia Dream	1 : 3
8	Bye	Minnesota United
9	St. Louis City	Bye
13	Sporting Kansas City II	Menace	1 : 2
14	Flatirons	Union Omaha	1 : 2
16	Bye	San Antonio
17	Hartford Athletic	New York Shockers	3 : 0
18	Portland Hearts of Pine	Faialense	4 : 0
20	Bye	Rhode Island
24	Bye	New England Revolution
25	Chicago Fire	Bye
29	Detroit	Bye
31	Motown	Westchester SC
32	Cincinnati 2	New York Pancyprian	0 : 1
33	Tacoma Defiance	Washington AC	3 : 1
34	Ballard	Spokane Velocity	0 : 1
36	Bye	Oakland Roots
40	Bye	Portland Timbers
41	Sacramento Republic	Bye
43	Monterey Bay	International SF	4 : 0
44	Real Monarchs	El Farolito	1 : 3
48	Bye	San Jose Earthquakes
49	Forward Madison	Duluth FC	5 : 1
50	Tulsa Athletic	FC Tulsa	0 : 1
52	Bye	Phoenix Rising
56	Bye	Houston Dynamo
57	Austin FC	Bye
61	New Mexico	Bye
63	Ventura County	Laguna United	7 : 0
64	El Paso	Harpos	5 : 1
65	Philadelphia Union	Bye
69	Indy Eleven	Bye
71	Inter Miami II	Miami United	4 : 2
72	Miami FC	Naples United	4 : 1
73	Columbus Crew 2	NY Renegades	4 : 1
74	Lexington	Southern Indiana	5 : 0
76	Bye	Pittsburgh
80	Bye	New York City
81	Colorado Springs	Bye
83	Asheville City	Greenville	0 : 1
84	Appalachian	One Knoxville	0 : 3
88	Bye	New York Red Bulls
89	FC Dallas	Bye
93	AV Alta	Ventura	3 : 1
94	Los Angeles FC II	Arizona FC	7 : 1
96	Bye	Orange County SC
97	Sarasota Paradise	FC Naples	1 : 2
98	Little Rock Rangers	Birmingham	1 : 0
100	Bye	Tampa Bay
104	Bye	Orlando City
105	Nashville SC	Bye
109	Las Vegas Lights	Bye
111	Chattanooga	Corpus Christi FC	1 : 0
112	New Jersey Alliance	Chattanooga Red Wolves	2 : 3
113	Long Island	Charlotte Independ.	2 : 3
114	Carolina Core	Soda City	4 : 2
116	Bye	North Carolina
120	Bye	Charlotte
121	DC United	Bye
125	Charleston	Bye
127	Tormenta	Harbor City	3 : 0
128	Texoma	Foro	1 : 2

1/64-finals

1	Louisville City	Bye
2	Loudoun	Virginia Dream	4 : 2
4	Bye	Minnesota United
5	St. Louis City	Bye
7	Menace	Union Omaha	1 : 2
8	Bye	San Antonio
9	Hartford Athletic	Portland Hearts of Pine	1 : 2
10	Bye	Rhode Island
12	Bye	New England Revolution
13	Chicago Fire	Bye
15	Detroit	Bye
16	Westchester SC	New York Pancyprian	3 : 2
17	Tacoma Defiance	Spokane Velocity	2 : 1
18	Bye	Oakland Roots
20	Bye	Portland Timbers
21	Sacramento Republic	Bye
22	Monterey Bay	El Farolito	1 : 2
24	Bye	San Jose Earthquakes
25	Forward Madison	FC Tulsa	1 : 3
26	Bye	Phoenix Rising
28	Bye	Houston Dynamo
29	Austin FC	Bye
31	New Mexico	Bye
32	Ventura County	El Paso	0 : 3
33	Philadelphia Union	Bye
35	Indy Eleven	Bye
36	Inter Miami II	Miami FC	0 : 1
37	Columbus Crew 2	Lexington	3 : 0
38	Bye	Pittsburgh
40	Bye	New York City
41	Colorado Springs	Bye
42	Greenville	One Knoxville	1 : 3
44	Bye	New York Red Bulls
45	FC Dallas	Bye
47	AV Alta	Los Angeles FC II	2 : 1
48	Bye	Orange County SC
49	FC Naples	Little Rock Rangers	3 : 0
50	Bye	Tampa Bay
52	Bye	Orlando City
53	Nashville SC	Bye
55	Las Vegas Lights	Bye
56	Chattanooga	Chattanooga Red Wolves	1 : 2
57	Charlotte Independ.	Carolina Core	2 : 1
58	Bye	North Carolina
60	Bye	Charlotte
61	DC United	Bye
63	Charleston	Bye
64	Tormenta	Foro	3 : 2

1/32-finals

1	Louisville City	Loudoun	2 : 1
2	Bye	Minnesota United
3	St. Louis City	Bye
4	Union Omaha	San Antonio	1 : 0
5	Portland Hearts of Pine	Rhode Island	1 : 2
6	Bye	New England Revolution
7	Chicago Fire	Bye
8	Detroit	Westchester SC	3 : 1
9	Tacoma Defiance	Oakland Roots	2 : 1
10	Bye	Portland Timbers
11	Sacramento Republic	El Farolito	1 : 0
12	Bye	San Jose Earthquakes
13	FC Tulsa	Phoenix Rising	1 : 2
14	Bye	Houston Dynamo
15	Austin FC	Bye
16	New Mexico	El Paso	2 : 3
17	Philadelphia Union	Bye
18	Indy Eleven	Miami FC	1 : 0
19	Columbus Crew 2	Pittsburgh	0 : 1
20	Bye	New York City
21	Colorado Springs	One Knoxville	3 : 2
22	Bye	New York Red Bulls
23	FC Dallas	Bye
24	AV Alta	Orange County SC	3 : 2
25	FC Naples	Tampa Bay	1 : 2
26	Bye	Orlando City
27	Nashville SC	Bye
28	Las Vegas Lights	Chattanooga Red Wolves	2 : 3
29	Charlotte Independ.	North Carolina	1 : 3
30	Bye	Charlotte
31	DC United	Bye
32	Charleston	Tormenta	4 : 0

1/16-finals

1	Louisville City	Minnesota United	0 : 1
2	St. Louis City	Union Omaha	2 : 0
3	Rhode Island	New England Revolution	1 : 2
4	Chicago Fire	Detroit	4 : 0
5	Tacoma Defiance	Portland Timbers	2 : 3
6	Sacramento Republic	San Jose Earthquakes	1 : 2
7	Phoenix Rising	Houston Dynamo	1 : 4
8	Austin FC	El Paso	3 : 2
9	Philadelphia Union	Indy Eleven	2 : 1
10	Pittsburgh	New York City	1 : 0
11	Colorado Springs	New York Red Bulls	1 : 4
12	FC Dallas	AV Alta	3 : 1
13	Tampa Bay	Orlando City	0 : 5
14	Nashville SC	Chattanooga Red Wolves	1 : 0
15	North Carolina	Charlotte	1 : 4
16	DC United	Charleston	2 : 0

1/8-finals

1	Minnesota United	St. Louis City	3 : 2
2	New England Revolution	Chicago Fire	1 : 3
3	Portland Timbers	San Jose Earthquakes	0 : 1
4	Houston Dynamo	Austin FC	1 : 3
5	Philadelphia Union	Pittsburgh	4 : 1
6	New York Red Bulls	FC Dallas	3 : 2
7	Orlando City	Nashville SC	2 : 3
8	Charlotte	DC United	3 : 4

Quarter-finals

1	Minnesota United	Chicago Fire	3 : 1
2	San Jose Earthquakes	Austin FC	2 : 3
3	Philadelphia Union	New York Red Bulls	3 : 2
4	Nashville SC	DC United	5 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Minnesota United	Austin FC
2	Philadelphia Union	Nashville SC

Final

1

TBD #1

TBD #2