Result
4:2
22/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 26
- Referee: Dudic A. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.80 | 2.20 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (303/368) | 85% (408/482) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.80 | 2.20 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.89 | 2.74 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 29 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (303/368) | 85% (408/482) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (32/60) | 47% (18/38) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (80/116) | 73% (77/105) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (6/24) | 40% (6/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.78 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (11/15) | 60% (12/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.74 | 3.89 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.74 | -0.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 30', 1 - 0, Dorn P. ⚽, Dantas R. (A),
- 45', 1 - 1, Traore B. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 58', Bacanin A. ↓, Metinho ↑,
- 58', Traore B. ↓, Duranville J. ↑,
- 60', Silva Ferreira L. M. ↓, Winkler L. ↑,
- 63', 1 - 2, Duranville J. ⚽,
- 75', Koloto G. ↓, Broschinski M. ↑,
- 75', Salah I. ↓, Soticek M. ↑,
- 75', Abe T. ↓, Karweina S. ↑,
- 75', Von Moos J. ↓, Villiger L. ↑,
- 77', 2 - 2, Kabwit O. ⚽,
- 83', 3 - 2, Villiger L. ⚽, Kabwit O. (A),
- 89', 4 - 2, Kabwit O. ⚽,
- 90', Kabwit O. ↓, Vasovic A. ↑,
- 90', Leroy L. ↓, Koindredi K. ↑,
- 90+5', Tsunemoto K. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Luzern
37% | Draw
26.1% | Basel
36.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Luzern has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)Basel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luzern than the current prediction. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basel than the current prediction. (+2.5%)
Luzern - Basel Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.54 ↓
(2.61) |
3.59 ↓
(3.83) |
2.54 ↑
(2.42) |
6.6%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Luzern - Basel?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Luzern will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Basel will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Basel (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luzern won 1.
- Recent performances by Luzern have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Basel has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Basel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Luzern: Ciganiks A.
(Inactive)
Freimann B.
(Red Card)
Knezevic S.
(Inactive)
Lofgren J.
(Hernia)
Spadanuda K.
(Injury)
Zimmermann M.
(Hip Injury)
- There will not play in Basel: Metinho
(Knee Injury)
van Breemen F.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Luzern: Silva Ferreira L. M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Basel: Daniliuc F.
(Injury)
Schmid D.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Luzern won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:37. (average 1:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Luzern won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:18. (average 0.8:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Luzern won against Basel?
Luzern has won 4 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Basel won against Luzern?
Basel has won 6 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Luzern - Basel were as follows:
17.12.2025
Luzern
-
Basel
1:2
28.09.2025
Basel
-
Luzern
1:2
24.05.2025
Basel
-
Luzern
4:0
09.03.2025
Luzern
-
Basel
1:1
06.02.2025
Basel
-
Luzern
2:1
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 26 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 60:28 | 32 | 61 |
| 2 | St. Gallen | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 51:32 | 19 | 47 |
| 3 | Lugano | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 43:31 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | Sion | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 39:30 | 9 | 40 |
| 5 | Basel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 39:34 | 5 | 40 |
| 6 | Young Boys | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 52:52 | 0 | 36 |
| 7 | Luzern | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 52:49 | 3 | 33 |
| 8 | Zurich | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 39:50 | -11 | 31 |
| 9 | Lausanne | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Servette | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 44:51 | -7 | 28 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 34:47 | -13 | 21 |
| 12 | Winterthur | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 29:75 | -46 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
