Result
1:2
17/12/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 18
- Referee: Piccolo L. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2 |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1 |
 Ukraine | Sport 1 |
 World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 2.45 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (277/357) | 85% (390/459) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 2.45 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.81 | 2.96 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 40 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (277/357) | 85% (390/459) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (24/51) | 62% (21/34) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (85/128) | 69% (90/131) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (8/28) | 22% (4/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.73 | 1.06 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (14/22) | 76% (16/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 59 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 40 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.96 | 0.81 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.96 | -0.19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 16', Winkler L. 🟨,
- 18', Shaqiri X. (Penalty Awarded),
- 20', Metinho ↓, Bacanin A. ↑,
- 21', Traore B. 🟨,
- 28', Leroy L. 🟨,
- 31', Tsunemoto K. ↓, Vouilloz N. ↑,
- 39', Dantas R. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Traore B. ↓, Koindredi K. ↑,
- 49', 0 - 1, Broschinski M. ⚽, Schmid D. (A),
- 54', 1 - 1, Von Moos J. ⚽, Di Giusto M. (A),
- 62', Winkler L. ↓, Silva Ferreira L. M. ↑,
- 62', Villiger L. ↓, Vasovic A. ↑,
- 63', Von Moos J. 🟨,
- 75', 1 - 2, Koindredi K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 78', Spadanuda K. ↓, Grbic A. ↑,
- 78', Von Moos J. ↓, Kabwit O. ↑,
- 83', Shaqiri X. ↓, Salah I. ↑,
- 83', Leroy L. ↓, Soticek M. ↑,
- 83', Soticek M. 🟨,
- 84', Dantas R. ↓, Ciganiks A. ↑,
- 87', Knezevic S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Luzern
25.7% | Draw
23.3% | Basel
51.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Luzern - Basel Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.66 ↑
(3.34) |
4.02 ↑
(3.9) |
1.85 ↓
(1.99) |
6.3%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Luzern - Basel?
Users Predictions:
Basel will win
(31 of 35 users predict this - 88.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.03% – 99.11%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Basel will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 10 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luzern won 2.
- Luzern has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Basel's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Luzern may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Basel could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Luzern: Dorn P.
(Inactive)
Lofgren J.
(Hernia)
Owusu T.
(Yellow Cards)
Zimmermann M.
(Hip Injury)
- There will not play in Basel: Agbonifo J.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Luzern won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:37. (average 1:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Luzern won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:18. (average 0.8:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Luzern won against Basel?
Luzern has won 4 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Basel won against Luzern?
Basel has won 5 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Luzern - Basel were as follows:
28.09.2025
Basel
-
Luzern
1:2
24.05.2025
Basel
-
Luzern
4:0
09.03.2025
Luzern
-
Basel
1:1
06.02.2025
Basel
-
Luzern
2:1
29.09.2024
Luzern
-
Basel
1:0
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 35:21 | 14 | 37 |
| 2 | St. Gallen | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 36:21 | 15 | 34 |
| 3 | Basel | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 27:19 | 8 | 31 |
| 4 | Lugano | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 25:23 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Young Boys | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 38:35 | 3 | 29 |
| 6 | Sion | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27:23 | 4 | 27 |
| 7 | Zurich | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 26:31 | -5 | 24 |
| 8 | Lausanne | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 27:23 | 4 | 21 |
| 9 | Servette | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 29:35 | -6 | 19 |
| 10 | Luzern | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 31:35 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25:33 | -8 | 17 |
| 12 | Winterthur ✔ | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 23:50 | -27 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Winterthur is Super League (Relegation Group )
