Result
1:1
30/01/2026 at 04:05 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- A-League - Round 15
- Referee: Shakespear N. (Aus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | Paramount+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Hong-kong | M Plus Live, myTV SUPER |
 India | FanCode, FanCode |
 Macao | Macau Cable TV 34 Football |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 2 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Thailand | True ID, True Premier Football 4 |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 4 |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.91 | 1.60 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (378/464) | 71% (224/317) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.91 | 1.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 1.71 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (378/464) | 71% (224/317) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (22/49) | 45% (22/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (116/149) | 64% (61/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 9% (1/11) | 18% (4/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 1.11 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 56% (10/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 15 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.71 | 1.15 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.15 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 21', Scott W. 🟨,
- 37', 1 - 0, Yull J. ⚽, Kitto R. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 56', Grzan S. ↓, Ikonomidis C. ↑,
- 57', 1 - 1, Ikonomidis C. ⚽, Vickery L. (A),
- 68', Bosnjak D. ↓, Randazzo O. ↑,
- 68', Duke M. ↓, Sawyer H. ↑,
- 68', Burkitt B. ↓, Muniz J. ↑,
- 77', Jovanovic L. ↓, Riak A. ↑,
- 77', Goodwin C. ↓, Tatu A. ↑,
- 86', Yull J. ↓, Garuccio J. ↑,
- 86', Barnett J. ↓, Madanha P. ↑,
- 90+2', Vickery L. ↓, Helweh Z. ↑,
- 90+2', Kurto F. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Adelaide United
36.6% | Draw
24.7% | Macarthur FC
38.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Adelaide United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Adelaide United's form might have worsened.Macarthur FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Macarthur FC's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (+10.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Adelaide United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (-10.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Macarthur FC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Adelaide United - Macarthur FC Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.58 ↑
(1.99) |
3.81 ↑
(3.68) |
2.45 ↓
(3.18) |
5.8%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Adelaide United - Macarthur FC?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Adelaide will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Macarthur will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Adelaide: 19.1% – 73.3%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Adelaide (1.99) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- DNB - Adelaide (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Adelaide (votes: 6 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 1.
- Adelaide is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Macarthur has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Adelaide: Alagich E.
(Inactive)
Duzel L.
(Knock)
Pierias D.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Macarthur: Ji Dong-Won
(Ankle Injury)
Oliveira B.
(Injury)
Oliveira H.
(Inactive)
Politidis H.
(Inactive)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:26. (average 1.5:2.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.8:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Adelaide United won against Macarthur FC?
Adelaide United has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Macarthur FC won against Adelaide United?
Macarthur FC has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Adelaide United - Macarthur FC were as follows:
27.10.2025
Macarthur FC
-
Adelaide United
2:1
14.03.2025
Adelaide United
-
Macarthur FC
4:5
06.01.2025
Macarthur FC
-
Adelaide United
1:2
12.04.2024
Adelaide United
-
Macarthur FC
1:2
08.01.2024
Adelaide United
-
Macarthur FC
1:1
Latest results of Adelaide United
Latest results of Macarthur FC
Australian A-League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 19 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 41:29 | 12 | 37 |
| 2 | Auckland FC | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 32:18 | 14 | 35 |
| 3 | Sydney FC | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 26:18 | 8 | 32 |
| 4 | Adelaide United | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33:28 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Melbourne Victory | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 28:24 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | Macarthur FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 24:28 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | Central Coast Mariners | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 24:26 | -2 | 23 |
| 8 | Brisbane Roar | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 9 | Melbourne City | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 20:27 | -7 | 22 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 22:30 | -8 | 21 |
| 11 | WS Wanderers | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21:26 | -5 | 20 |
| 12 | Wellington Phoenix | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 28:39 | -11 | 20 |
Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
