RB Leipzig vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
1:2
31/01/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 20
  • Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 3
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports 2, Fast Sports
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
bulgariaBulgariaNova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 5
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 5
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
hungaryHungaryArena 4
icelandIcelandViaplay
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN SPORTS MAX
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport+
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport 2
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 1
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 6
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaSport TV2
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 4
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 4
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.432.33
Ball possession
69%31%
Total shots
1511
Shots on target
44
Big chances
34
Corner kicks
54
Passes
87% (603/697)69% (208/302)
Yellow cards
04
Expected goals (xG)
1.432.33
xG on target (xGOT)
1.452.14
Total shots
1511
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
65
Blocked shots
52
Shots inside the box
148
Shots outside the box
13
Hit the woodwork
10
Headed goals
10
Big chances
34
Corner kicks
54
Touches in opposition box
4524
Accurate through passes
30
Offsides
22
Free kicks
134
Passes
87% (603/697)69% (208/302)
Long passes
53% (25/47)39% (21/54)
Passes in final third
77% (150/194)64% (57/89)
Crosses
15% (4/27)38% (5/13)
Expected assists (xA)
3.041.23
Throw ins
2318
Fouls
413
Tackles
67% (8/12)46% (13/28)
Duels won
5958
Clearances
2444
Interceptions
717
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
23
xGOT faced
2.141.45
Goals prevented
0.140.45

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 14', Hollerbach B. ↓, Silas ↑,
  • 38', Bell S. 🟨,
  • 40', 1 - 0, Harder C. ⚽, Nusa A. (A),
  • 45+3', Posch S. 🟨,
  • 45+6', 1 - 1, Amiri N. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 49', 1 - 2, Silas ⚽, Tietz P. (A),
  • 59', Bitshiabu E. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
  • 59', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
  • 72', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
  • 72', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
  • 82', Widmer S. ↓, Mwene P. ↑,
  • 82', Silas ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
  • 82', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
  • 86', Seiwald N. ↓, Bakayoko J. ↑,
  • 90+3', Potulski K. 🟨,
  • 90+6', Weiper N. 🟨,

Chances of winning


RB Leipzig
61.5%		Draw
20.7%		Mainz
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
61.8% 20.4% 17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4% 19.9% 18.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
    •

    RB Leipzig - Mainz Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.55 ↑
    (1.54)    		 4.59 ↓
    (4.66)    		 5.35 ↓
    (5.37)    		 5%
    (5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
    What is the prediction for RB Leipzig - Mainz?
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 28.6%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • DC - RB Leipzig (1.17) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (24 of 30 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 65.69% – 94.31%.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 7 - 70%). Mainz (votes: 3 - 30%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 2.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • RB Leipzig may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, RB Leipzig is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in RB Leipzig: Baumgartner C. (Yellow Cards) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Lukeba C. (Knee Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury) Kohr D. (Yellow Cards) Leitsch M. (Injury) Veratschnig N. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Kawasaki S. (Injury) Nordin A. (Injury)
    • In the last 19 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 42:26. (average 2.2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:11. (average 2.8:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between RB Leipzig - Mainz were as follows:
    13.09.2025 Mainz - RB Leipzig 0:1
    01.03.2025 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2
    19.10.2024 Mainz - RB Leipzig 0:2
    30.03.2024 RB Leipzig - Mainz 0:0
    04.11.2023 Mainz - RB Leipzig 2:0
    Latest results of RB Leipzig
    27.01.2026 St. Pauli - RB Leipzig 1:1 ✺
    24.01.2026 Heidenheim - RB Leipzig 0:3 ✺
    17.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich 1:5 ✺
    14.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Freiburg 2:0 ✺
    20.12.2025 RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen 1:3 ✺
    Latest results of Mainz
    24.01.2026 Mainz - Wolfsburg 3:1 ✺
    17.01.2026 Köln - Mainz 2:1 ✺
    13.01.2026 Mainz - Heidenheim 2:1 ✺
    10.01.2026 Union Berlin - Mainz 2:2 ✺
    21.12.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 0:0 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich ✔ 292441105:277876
    2Dortmund29197360:293164
    3Stuttgart29175760:382256
    4RB Leipzig29175756:362056
    5Bayer Leverkusen29157759:392052
    6Hoffenheim29156857:431451
    7Eintracht Frankfurt29119954:54042
    8Freiburg291171142:47-540
    9Mainz29891235:44-933
    10Augsburg29961436:53-1733
    11Union Berlin29881333:50-1732
    12Hamburger SV297101232:45-1331
    13FC Koln29791343:50-730
    14B. Monchengladbach29791335:49-1430
    15Werder Bremen29771532:52-2028
    16St. Pauli29671625:50-2525
    17Wolfsburg29561839:65-2621
    18Heidenheim29471832:64-3219

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Bayern Munich is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
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