Mainz vs Wolfsburg – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Football German Bundesliga Mainz - Wolfsburg
Result
2:2
19/04/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 30
  • Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaNew World Sport App, Startimes Sports Arena
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
denmarkDenmarkSee, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 5
hungaryHungaryNet4+
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
japanJapanSKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 5
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
polandPolandViaplay
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 8
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 3
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus
worldWorldDisney+, Onefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.571.69
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
1816
Shots on target
74
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
75
Passes
76% (288/377)77% (277/361)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
2.571.69
xG on target (xGOT)
2.441.81
Total shots
1816
Shots on target
74
Shots off target
69
Blocked Shots
53
Shots inside the Box
1412
Shots outside the Box
44
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
75
Touches in opposition box
2828
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
815
Passes
76% (288/377)77% (277/361)
Long passes
34% (20/58)42% (27/64)
Passes in final third
65% (103/159)67% (77/115)
Crosses
18% (4/22)21% (3/14)
Expected assists (xA)
1.291.04
Fouls
158
Tackles
33% (4/12)80% (16/20)
Duels won
4051
Clearances Total
1333
Interceptions
1312
Errors leading to shot
20
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
25
xGOT faced
1.812.44
Goals prevented
-0.190.44

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 3', 0 - 1, Arnold M. ⚽, Paredes K. (A),
  • 37', 1 - 1, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Weiper N. (A),
  • 40', 2 - 1, Kohr D. ⚽, Amiri N. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 51', Kohr D. 🟨,
  • 63', Paredes K. ↓, Tomas T. ↑,
  • 63', Amoura M. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
  • 63', Wimmer P. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
  • 68', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
  • 68', Tomas T. 🟨,
  • 74', Wind J. ↓, Kaminski J. ↑,
  • 76', Weiper N. ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
  • 76', Kohr D. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
  • 86', Svanberg M. ↓, Majer L. ↑,
  • 89', Veratschnig N. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
  • 89', 2 - 2, Vavro D. ⚽, Arnold M. (A),
  • 90', Maehle J. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
  • 90+3', Vavro D. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Mainz
47.3%		Draw
26%		Wolfsburg
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50.9% 25.1% 24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2% 24.5% 23.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)
  • Wolfsburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
    •

    Mainz - Wolfsburg Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.03 ↑
    (1.88)    		 3.66 ↓
    (3.82)    		 3.59 ↓
    (4.01)    		 4.3%
    (4.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    •
    What is the prediction for Mainz - Wolfsburg?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Wolfsburg (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • Users Predictions: Mainz will win (24 of 30 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 65.69% – 94.31%.
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 12).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Mainz won 1.
    • Recent matches Mainz is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Wolfsburg has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
    • Wolfsburg could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • Mainz will have a small advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Bell S. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Injury) Nebel P. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Wolfsburg: Angely M. (Muscle Injury) Bornauw S. (Foot Injury) Gerhardt Y. (Yellow Cards) Muller M. (Concussion)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Burkardt J. (Health problems) Leitsch M. (Hip Injury) Mwene P. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Wolfsburg: Majer L. (Ankle Injury) Odogu D. (Health problems) Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Muscle Injury) Rogerio (Knee Injury) Svanberg M. (Knee Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Mainz won 4 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 20:34 (average 1:1.7).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Mainz won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9:10 (average 0.9:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Wolfsburg were as follows:
    08.12.2024 Wolfsburg - Mainz 4:3
    18.05.2024 Wolfsburg - Mainz 1:3
    13.01.2024 Mainz - Wolfsburg 1:1
    05.11.2022 Mainz - Wolfsburg 0:3
    Latest results of Mainz
    12.04.2025 Hoffenheim - Mainz 2:0 ✺
    05.04.2025 Mainz - Holstein Kiel 1:1 ✺
    30.03.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 3:1 ✺
    15.03.2025 Mainz - Freiburg 2:2 ✺
    07.03.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz 1:3 ✺
    Latest results of Wolfsburg
    11.04.2025 Wolfsburg - RB Leipzig 2:3 ✺
    06.04.2025 Union Berlin - Wolfsburg 1:0 ✺
    29.03.2025 Wolfsburg - Heidenheim 0:1 ✺
    15.03.2025 Augsburg - Wolfsburg 1:0 ✺
    08.03.2025 Wolfsburg - St. Pauli 1:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Union Berlin00000:000
    2Eintracht Frankfurt00000:000
    3Bayern Munich00000:000
    4Bayer Leverkusen00000:000
    5Werder Bremen00000:000
    6Hamburger SV00000:000
    7Wolfsburg00000:000
    8Dortmund00000:000
    9B. Monchengladbach00000:000
    10Hoffenheim00000:000
    11FC Koln00000:000
    12Mainz00000:000
    13Freiburg00000:000
    14St. Pauli00000:000
    15Augsburg00000:000
    16Stuttgart00000:000
    17Heidenheim00000:000
    18RB Leipzig00000:000

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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