Result
2:1
04/03/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 28
- Referee: Ayroldi G. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Israel | 5 SPORT Israel |
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 Russia | Telekanal Futbol |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3 |
 United-kingdom | DCTV |
 Usa | DCTV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 1.02 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (298/368) | 79% (252/319) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 1.02 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.87 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 33 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 23 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (298/368) | 79% (252/319) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (24/43) | 27% (13/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (87/131) | 71% (55/77) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 34% (10/29) | 8% (1/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.62 | 0.16 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 75% (9/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 43 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.34 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.13 | -0.66 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 2', 1 - 0, Ranocchia F. ⚽, Augello T. (A),
- 17', Zuccon F. 🟨,
- 19', Ranocchia F. 🟨,
- 32', Zuccon F. 🟨,
- 38', 2 - 0, Pohjanpalo J. ⚽, Palumbo A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Bragantini D. ↓, Paoletti F. ↑,
- 46', Ranocchia F. ↓, Blin A. ↑,
- 53', Mensah D. ↓, Marras T. ↑,
- 53', Dembele A. ↓, Maggioni T. ↑,
- 67', Blin A. 🟥,
- 68', 2 - 1, Marras T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 69', Palumbo A. ↓, Gomes C. ↑,
- 70', Castellini A. 🟨,
- 71', Radaelli N. 🟨,
- 75', Pierozzi N. 🟨,
- 77', Le Douaron J. ↓, Johnsen D. ↑,
- 77', Castellini A. ↓, Mancuso L. ↑,
- 77', Caprini M. ↓, Buso N. ↑,
- 81', Peda P. 🟨,
- 84', Peda P. ↓, Magnani G. ↑,
- 85', Pierozzi N. ↓, Gyasi E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Palermo
62.7% | Draw
22% | Mantova
15.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
Palermo - Mantova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.5 ↑
(1.5) |
4.26 ↑
(4.13) |
6.13 ↑
(5.98) |
6.6%
(7.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Palermo - Mantova?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Palermo will win (votes: 19 - 86.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palermo: 72.1% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Palermo (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- AH -1.5 - Mantova (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Palermo will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Mantova (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).
- Palermo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Mantova has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Palermo is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Mantova: Bianay Balcot C.
(Injury)
Bonfanti N.
(Inactive)
Falletti C.
(Inactive)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).
- Including home match between the teams, Palermo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Palermo won against Mantova?
Palermo has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mantova won against Palermo?
Mantova has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palermo - Mantova were as follows:
11.01.2026
Mantova
-
Palermo
1:1
16.02.2025
Palermo
-
Mantova
2:2
30.10.2024
Mantova
-
Palermo
0:0
Latest results of Palermo
Latest results of Mantova
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 73:29 | 44 | 78 |
| 2 | Monza | 36 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 57:27 | 30 | 75 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 36 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 70:34 | 36 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 36 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 58:29 | 29 | 69 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 36 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 58:45 | 13 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 47:34 | 13 | 52 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 36 | 11 | 17 | 8 | 43:43 | 0 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 42:54 | -12 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 45 |
| 10 | Carrarese | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 43 |
| 11 | Mantova | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 42:50 | -8 | 43 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 34:47 | -13 | 41 |
| 13 | Sudtirol | 36 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 37:46 | -9 | 40 |
| 14 | Padova | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 34:46 | -12 | 40 |
| 15 | Entella | 36 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 34:48 | -14 | 39 |
| 16 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 44:52 | -8 | 37 |
| 17 | Pescara | 36 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 50:64 | -14 | 34 |
| 18 | Bari | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 33:58 | -25 | 34 |
| 19 | Reggiana | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34:54 | -20 | 34 |
| 20 | Spezia | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 40:56 | -16 | 33 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
