Result
1:0
08/04/2023 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 27
- Referee: Almeida N. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sport TV |
Chances of winning
Arouca
42.1% | Draw
29.9% | Marítimo
28% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+3.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
Arouca - Marítimo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.24 ↑
(2.03) |
3.17 ↑
(3.15) |
3.36 ↓
(3.68) |
6%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Arouca - Marítimo?
Users Predictions:
Arouca will win
(21 of 25 users predict this - 84%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.63% – 98.37%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification: ) and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- Arouca has the most likely position - 5 (41.08%), project points - 51, currently - 41, not chance of relegated, a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), not chance of win league.
- Marítimo has the most likely position - 16 (53.09%), project points - 28, currently - 19, a good chance of relegated (53%), not chance of qualify for ucl.
- This event has quality 45, small importance 21, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Arouca won 0.
- Arouca is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Recent matches Marítimo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- Arouca will have a small advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Arouca: Dabbagh O.
(Injury)
Soro I.
(Injury)
Vitinho
(Injury)
- There will not play in Marítimo: Liza P.
(Coach's decision)
Mendes D.
(Injury)
Mosquera M.
(Yellow Cards)
Trmal M.
(Injury)
- Last 13 head-to-head matches Arouca won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 14-17.
- Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-7.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Marítimo?
Arouca has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Marítimo won against Arouca?
Marítimo has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Marítimo were as follows:
23.10.2022
Marítimo
-
Arouca
1:1
Latest results of Marítimo
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 59:14 | 45 | 76 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 28 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 73:17 | 56 | 71 |
| 3 | Benfica | 29 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 61:18 | 43 | 69 |
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 55:27 | 28 | 52 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 36:25 | 11 | 47 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 44:30 | 14 | 46 |
| 7 | Estoril | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 51:50 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 36 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
| 10 | Alverca | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 32:47 | -15 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 31:48 | -17 | 33 |
| 12 | Arouca | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 37:58 | -21 | 32 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 26:37 | -11 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 33:48 | -15 | 28 |
| 15 | Nacional | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 31:41 | -10 | 25 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 28:52 | -24 | 25 |
| 17 | Tondela | 28 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 21:46 | -25 | 21 |
| 18 | AFS | 29 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 19:62 | -43 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
