Result
 
                    2:0
                
               
                
                                 
                    
                    
                        19/03/2023 at  11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
                    
 
                 
                
                
				
				                
				
				                
                 
                 
                     
                     
                                                -  PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 25
- Referee: Nobre A. (Por)
                    
                    
                     
                  
				
				            
            
            
                            				
                
                
				
								 
				 
				 				 
				                 
				 				 
				 
				 				 
				 
				 
				
				                 
                    
                        Chances of winning
                    
                    
                        
                                
 | Casa Pia 45.4%
 | Draw 29.9%
 | Marítimo 24.8%
 | 
Initial Probability
 (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Casa Pia - Marítimo Odds
                    
                    
                        
                                
            
            
            
			
			
			   |  | 1 | X | 2 | Marga |  | 
			
			
			   | Avarage Now (Initially)
 | 2.08 ↑ (1.79)
 | 3.19 ↓ (3.49)
 | 3.79 ↓ (4.16)
 | 5.9% (8.7%)
 |  | 
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  
                 
				 				 
				 
				 
            
                                 
                    
                        What is the prediction for Casa Pia - Marítimo?
                    
                    
                        
						        
                    
                    Users Predictions: 
                    
                    
                    
                    Casa Pia will win 
                    (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.                                The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
                        
						
                    
 
                 
                                
                
                                  
                    
                     Preview Facts
                    
                    
                        
                              - Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 7 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- Casa Pia has the most likely position - 7 (14.77%),  project points - 46,  currently - 35,  a very small chance of relegated (<1%),  a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%),  not chance of win league.
- Marítimo has the most likely position - 16 (41.88%),  project points - 27,  currently - 16,  a good chance of relegated (54%),  not chance of qualify for ucl.
- This event has quality 43, small importance 22, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com) 
- Recent matches Casa Pia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1). 
- Marítimo is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1). 
- Casa Pia will have a mini benefit in this match.
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Leo Natel
(Broken Leg)
- There will not play in Marítimo: Mendes D.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Rafael Martins
(Injury)
Tchamba D.
(Injury)
 
- Last 1 head-to-head matches Casa Pia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.                        
  
                 
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Marítimo?
                    
                    
                        
                            Casa Pia has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Marítimo won against Casa Pia?
                    
                    
                        
                             Marítimo has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                
                                 
                    
                        What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
                    
                    
                    
                        
                            The latest head-to-head matches between Casa Pia - Marítimo were as follows:
                                                        
                                03.10.2022 
                                Marítimo 
                                - 
                                Casa Pia 
                                1:2
                            
        
                                                     
                      
                    
                 
                
                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of Casa Pia                    
                    
                    
                 
                                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of Marítimo                    
                    
                 
				
				
				
                
                
                                 
                                 
                			   
			                       
                            
                                                
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26|  |  | Pl | W | D | L |  | Diff | Pts | 
| 1 | Sporting CP | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25:5 | 20 | 25 | 
| 2 | FC Porto | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21:2 | 19 | 25 | 
| 3 | Benfica | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18:4 | 14 | 21 | 
| 4 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:4 | 10 | 19 | 
| 5 | Famalicao | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10:4 | 6 | 16 | 
| 6 | Moreirense | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 15 | 
| 7 | Braga | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:8 | 8 | 13 | 
| 8 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:14 | -1 | 11 | 
| 9 | Santa Clara | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 | 
| 10 | Nacional | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 11 | 
| 11 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 11 | 
| 12 | Alverca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 10 | 
| 13 | Arouca | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10:24 | -14 | 9 | 
| 14 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8:17 | -9 | 8 | 
| 15 | Estrela | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 7 | 
| 16 | Estoril | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 7 | 
| 17 | Tondela | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4:17 | -13 | 5 | 
| 18 | AFS | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5:22 | -17 | 1 | 
      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Liga Portugal (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2